Congrats to all the FY12 DH selectees!!

[Flash]

I think I got something like 78% when I did the math (when the results posted, the eligible list was still up, and I was on duty, plenty of time to number crunch.) Maybe 4 AZ IIRC.

Helolumpy- I wasn't suggesting a significantly higher selection rate, but exactly what you are saying, Navy will want to keep the percentages the same. I think, with the O5 retention board and fewer O4 selcts, they will do it by putting more in zone, hence a forward creep in a few years.

It will be interesting to see what the official BUPERS numbers are, whenever they get around to releasing them, and what fewer selects will do to DH selection rates next year...

Is it really 78% or the BUPERS 78%? Because their math is a bit funny and their percentages don't quite match reality, or seem to have anything to do with real math. Someone who had been at BUPERS explained it on the board here a while ago but it still didn't make sense.

And I don't think the Navy necessarily wants to keep the percentages the same, I think they are looking at numbers and with more people staying in the less they need.

 

[HooverPilot]

When I crunched the numbers a few weeks ago - it was within a fraction of 80%. Last year was 85%. I have found the 2011-2008 statistics, but I find it curious that the entire FY 2012 site is missing...

 

[MasterBates]

It is odd how FY-12 is totally gone from the website. I was also supposed to have Sep orders in hand by now, but still only have verbals.

BUPERS = Land of Confusion?

 

[PropStop]

It is odd how FY-12 is totally gone from the website. I was also supposed to have Sep orders in hand by now, but still only have verbals.

You haven't hit high year tenure for an O-3, right? Did they even offer you another set of orders or did they tell you to piss off?

 

[MasterBates]

I hit "HYT" for LT.

Basically, if you don't select for LCDR twice, you get separated.

 

[bert]

Is it really 78% or the BUPERS 78%? Because their math is a bit funny and their percentages don't quite match reality, or seem to have anything to do with real math. Someone who had been at BUPERS explained it on the board here a while ago but it still didn't make sense.

And I don't think the Navy necessarily wants to keep the percentages the same, I think they are looking at numbers and with more people staying in the less they need.

Copied from a post I put up in the FTS thread, but it explains a little why BUPERS does what it does:

The statutory requirement is DOPMA (Defense Officer Personnel Management Act of 1980 (Public Law 96-513). Promotion opportunity is supposed to be consistent over a 5 year period. The CBO did an interesting (if a little nerdy) study on the last couple drawdowns and how the services handled them - it helps explain the process if you are really interested. This all goes back to the "up or out" argument and the effect it has on how the military does personnel business.​

NPC really does calculate opportunity the "correct" way, but that number doesn't mean anything to the guy a few years out trying to figure out what his chances really are since there is no way to know if your in-zone year is going to have a board that picks up a lot of folks above zone (though it seems boards have figured out that below zone picks just fornicate the system all around). Another problem to me is that they don't provide meaningful board statistics like breaking out 1310/1320 promotion rates by community. Go back in the archives if they are still up and you can see that what community you are in really does matter (though at the O-5 level that is partly due to the way the squadron's are organized and the number of DH's in competition). ​

While they don't have as much flexibility with manipulating opportunity, they can mess with the YG's to get the numbers they want. The problem with all their calculations is that they always have one more unknown than they have equations, so they can suffer from the law of unintended consequences, for instance, the T-notch, which was created by a combination of the post-Cold War drawdown plus the economic boom of the late 90's. They knew that those YG's would be smaller, they just didn't know (and probably couldn't) how much smaller than requirements those groups would end up being.

Don't forget as well, that you are competing with the random selection of records you are tanked with as much as you are with the entire group. A record that would have made the crunch in one group could easily get dropped in another. Plus, it takes most boards a little bit to gel; if you are randomly dropped into the first tank then the potential spread of votes is much wider as the people on their first board start learning their way with their voting. I certainly wouldn't go so far as to call it a random process, but there is definitely variability to it.

 

[ChunksJR]

I think I got something like 78% when I did the math...

Some of my math is as follows:

If you were an IZ FRS/WWS H-60 bubba...it was near 95%. V/HT selection was about 25% (if that high). But hey, according to the detailer, HTs are "just as competitive"...whatever.

 

[Flying Low]

I would even settle for encl 2 from the Precept. Last years precept has the opportunity plan posted along with the precept. I asked the detailer why this years is not posted and I was told it is for in-house use only.

 

[PropStop]

Some of my math is as follows:

If you were an IZ FRS/WWS H-60 bubba...it was near 95%. V/HT selection was about 25% (if that high). But hey, according to the detailer, HTs are "just as competitive"...whatever.

So, just to make sure I understand what you're saying - if you went to the FRS or SWTI school for your shore tour, selection rate was near 95% for 60 drivers. If you went V/HT for your first shore tour, it was 25%? WTF, over?

Do you know anything about guys who sucked up hard fills or staff jobs?

Really would like to see the stats on this one...

 

[bert]

So, just to make sure I understand what you're saying - if you went to the FRS or SWTI school for your shore tour, selection rate was near 95% for 60 drivers. If you went V/HT for your first shore tour, it was 25%? WTF, over?

Do you know anything about guys who sucked up hard fills or staff jobs?

Really would like to see the stats on this one...

There is no "WTF" about this if it is true. FRS/SWTI are the favored sons (along with a few folks in one-off jobs like aides, etc) and as such will have a better record to support a board. But the communities need folks to fill production jobs, lower-tier staff and boat jobs, and to get the #3/4 on their DH tours, and telling people that they only want to use them long enough to get their chosen ones to the finish line wouldn't exactly help the community cause.

Historically, a lot of CO's aren't very good about being honest with their JO's about where they are going to stack up in the community when they've finished their first tour, and in my almost 20 years I can't tell you how many folks I've seen who believed it when their CO's said "you're on track, keep it up!" when the truth was the CO had put them into the pack. Being pack doesn't mean you are done like pack-minus; there are cases where luck, timing and being good at what they do lets folks move from pack to pack-plus, but it isn't the norm. And yes, there are guys who start out pack-plus and fall off the pace due to timing, bad luck or general douchiness. But the reality is that if you finish your first tour pack-plus you are likely to stay there because you will have access to the better jobs (FRS/SWTI mentioned above), and if you finish in the pack then you are going to have an uphill climb to catch up.

 

[MasterBates]

If the HT/VT is not as competitive to that degree, THEY NEED TO SAY IT

I was told that the order of preference was RAG/WTI, VT, HT all being competitive with a huge gap then ROTC, Station SAR, C-12s, and random DC or staff jobs were wildcards.

Sent via my HTC EVO 4G

 

[Brett327]

There is no "WTF" about this if it is true. FRS/SWTI are the favored sons (along with a few folks in one-off jobs like aides, etc) and as such will have a better record to support a board.

As stated above, this really shouldn't be a surprise to anyone. Now, if the front office isn't being frank with their folks, bad on them, but in these increasingly competitive times, guys also have to be honest with themselves about their records and where they stand. VT/HT tours can be rewarding, but one can't put their head in the sand, then be shocked when they don't screen.

Brett

 

[Flying Low]

I think VT/HT has been competitive until this year. If you look at last year’s Lessons Learned 91% was the selection rate for those that did a tour in the VT/HT. Overall it was an 84% selection rate for Helos, 113 selected out of 134. That’s 21 not selected for all Communities (Helo). I know of more than 20 just in HSC. Since the screen group got larger, the selection group got smaller and a 90% reduction in OP-T created the perfect storm that put everyone that did a tour in the VT/HT's in the I'm doing a disassociated sea tour and might not make DH group.

 

[PropStop]

There is no "WTF" about this if it is true. FRS/SWTI are the favored sons

I'd heard that before, the favored sons part.

Historically, a lot of CO's aren't very good about being honest with their JO's ...

yeah, I know that all too well. I guess am just completely surprised by the outcome of this selection board. Even though production was not considered super career enhancing (in MPA), it was not really a detriment to getting O4. From what I gathered (from the detailers), advanced production was rated a bit higher than overseas staff, followed by primary production and CONUS staff, followed by ROTC type gigs. Short of getting a DUI or screwing up in some manner, getting O4 was pretty much a sure thing.

Guess times have changed.

Wonder what next year's DH board will look like!

 

[Pags]

If the HT/VT is not as competitive to that degree, THEY NEED TO SAY IT

I was told that the order of preference was RAG/WTI, VT, HT all being competitive with a huge gap then ROTC, Station SAR, C-12s, and random DC or staff jobs were wildcards.

Sent via my HTC EVO 4G

They are saying it in the numbers. Like Bert and Brett have said, no one should be surprised that FRS/WTI guys screen at a higher rate. A few years ago, other production sources where doing ok but since the selection rate has gone down (at least for HSC), then it stands to reason that they're only going to take the guys with the "strongest records," which largely means FRS/WTI guys. COs can only speak to past trends and unfortunately very few people can accurately predict what is going to happen year to year. Throw in an uncertain economy and lower than historical manning numbers and the crystal ball tends to get very murky.