NEWS Air Force leadership talks frankly about pilot retention

[azguy]

Is that still the case? They were switching over to the fleet-up of XO to CO that we do in squadrons last I heard.

DH: 1st tours are all LTs. Some 2nd tour jobs are O-4 spot promote, and for those that aren't, most people are either selected or wearing LCDR in their 2nd DH tour. So the type of command matters: of the 5 SWO DHs on a DDG, probably only one will be an O-4. On a CG, most are O-4.

XO: You're right, we've been doing fleet-up for 5ish years now, so on the vast majority of ships the XO is the same rank as the CO. They couldn't make fleet-up work on CGs, not enough real estate for the ego of two SWO CAPTs. So for a while they were detailing non-command screened O-5s on a twilight tour, had some issues there too, you can read about it in Navy Times. So now the CG XO is a hot-running (command-screened) O-4, who then goes on to DDG command.

 

[FormerRecruitingGuru]

Is that still the case? They were switching over to the fleet-up of XO to CO that we do in squadrons last I heard.

XO of CRUDES is usually O-5. I've seen a few times when XO shows up as O-4 but promotes a few months after.

 

[azguy]

Point of order: most TACAIR guys will hit the fleet after three years of commissioned service. They'll show up to DH tour around the 11th year, so about eight years of "fleet time."

By "fleet time" I mean sea duty/deployable status, on your platform, operating it forward.

 

[Jim123]

Point of order: most TACAIR guys will hit the fleet after three years of commissioned service. They'll show up to DH tour around the 11th year, so about eight years of "fleet time."

Uhhh, depends how you define fleet time. A lot of TACAIR guys screen for DH right at the end of their first shore tour, which comes after their only fleet tour that was three years long, which came after 3-4 years of flight school+RAG+BOLTDIVOJOLC+SERE+stash time... and then skip dissociated tour and second shore tour* to roll straight into DH tour.


* the mythical second shore tour... a career path unicorn for all single anchor types

 

[nittany03]

Huh. I stand corrected.

 

[Recovering LSO]

My comment was predicated on: Flight school (API through wings) at two years, one year in RAG, three years at first sea tour, shore tour (in many cases flying/developing/learning/teaching), second sea tour (in some cases flying/developing/learning/teaching), and then on to DH tour. I recognize that is not the timeline for ALL TACAIR 1310s (or 1320s), but it's a starting point.

 

[CommodoreMid]

This is a function of our career timeline. They're warfare qualified officers with 3 years of operational experience; yes they happen to be LTJGs. Aviation DH candidates can't have that much more fleet time, right? To @RUFiO181 's point above, we wouldn't gain any new insight by waiting to screen post-MSR because PERS-41 has made the decision to totally disregard the post-Divo shore duty FITREPs for administrative boards. The new bonus scheme is crafted to compel those that are screened to stay in; sure, some will get out, that's why the non-selects get a 2nd look the next year.



The flaw with this math is that someone with a strong enough record to select for DH would be strong enough to screen O-4 first. In other words, I don't think any of those 2x FOS's had any hope of screening for DH.

The numbers prove otherwise that not all people who screen O-4 on first look will make DH. If you 2X FOS obviously you had no hope at DH, but you can look at an aviation bubba list and see plenty of people who made O-4 but not DH based on their future boards listed. Plus, as lots of people have said, even though you go into the DH board with FITREPs from your JO sea tour, your shore tours matter. It's not like aviators can go hand out basketballs on shore duty and expect to remain competitive. You need to keep flying and producing. From there, depending on community and your timing, your dissociated sea tour performance will go into both your O-4 and DH boards. For example there's a dude I worked with who's a year group ahead of me, checked out of my command two years ahead of me and has been on the boat for almost 2 years now, but we're in the same screen group. We both have our O-4 boards this year. He's going into it with 2 years worth of FITREPs from a second sea tour, whereas I'm going into the board with only my high water FITREP from my shore tour.

 

[RadicalDude]

Are we seriously saying that a SWO LTJG is in any way comparable to a Rhino Pilot or Growler EWO or Hawkeye Pilot with 1500-2000 hrs who has completed a no-shit combat deployment or two, spent 2.5 years as a RAG IP, then done two years on CVW or CSG staff?

Be real.

 

[BigRed389]

Are we seriously saying that a SWO LTJG is in any way comparable to a Rhino Pilot or Growler EWO or Hawkeye Pilot with 1500-2000 hrs who has completed a no-shit combat deployment or two, spent 2.5 years as a RAG IP, then done two years on CVW or CSG staff?

Be real.

No?

Honestly not even sure why this discussion is going so far.

SWO retention model has changed to account for many, many years of shitty retention. They (PERS) found a way to make the process more selective, and it's kinda working out for them.

The other side of the change has been the real performance screener for the admin board (DH) is sea duty performance. No it's not the same as a senior O-3 aviator...but for the purposes of determining if someone is DH material, sea duty (especially over 2 tours) absolutely should matter more.

I have no idea what the "right" solution is for Aviation...but the point is the SWO community saw something was broken, and they took pretty drastic steps to fix it.

The result is a much more selective DH screening process, heavy incentive package to retain those who screen (because those are the ones you want), which also feeds your hot runners into the "good deal" and career focused shore duty tours. Actually sounds pretty similar to Aviation "Golden path," so I'm curious why you couldn't screen Aviation DH first, then only keep the ones from that pool that also select for O-4.

 

[azguy]

Are we seriously saying that a SWO LTJG is in any way comparable to a Rhino Pilot or Growler EWO or Hawkeye Pilot with 1500-2000 hrs who has completed a no-shit combat deployment or two, spent 2.5 years as a RAG IP, then done two years on CVW or CSG staff?

Be real.

Calm down. By the time you're selecting for DH, your SWO brothers are rolling off of their DH tours to shore duty; our timeline is necessarily compressed to account for that. Most SWOs do a masters for their shore duty so PERS has decided not to take those NOB FITREPs into account for DH selection. Therefore, we screen for DH @ ~ 3.5 YCS.

Would it be nice to have an instructor or CSG tour's worth of paper to weigh in the decision? Sure, but I think most sane people will take 2 years in Monterey or Annapolis over a CSG staff tour.

 

[cfam]

Last month had the privilege of flying with a Prowler/Growler new hire.. Sharp pilot.. Callsign KD.. Not sure if that's correct spelling

Great dude! Glad to see he's doing well.

 

[armada1651]

https://livestream.com/wab/tailhook2016/videos/135308669

I would invite you to watch from 8:00 on. I only watched until 12:00, so I'll reserve comment, but the message from 8 min - 12 min was pretty self explanatory.

Edit: this is PERS-43's 2016 debrief @ Tailhook this year.

That's some good information. Thanks for posting it. And I'll admit, the data for Naval Aviation overall is a bit less grim than I expected. That being said, check out the slides around 19:00. You'll see that for FY2017, VFA and VAQ are projected to exactly meet their DH requirements (i.e., with no competition). And if I'm reading that slide correctly, they'll do so only if everyone eligible accepts DH orders and stays in - including those who have not yet taken the bonus and a small number who are no longer even eligible to take the bonus. That seems like a pretty optimistic assumption to me.

Also, the next slide contains the bullet "1310 Retention at MSR and Post Command is declining" with the sub-bullet "Drivers are an Improving economy, and Airline Hiring [sic]." DH bonus take rate data is conspicuously absent.

Another thing I think is worth considering is the fact that up until this point, VFA and VAQ pilots are probably the best set-up for an airline job - we have the most fixed wing, multi-engine, turbine PIC time. As airline demand increases - and it is increasing - they are finding ways to include more pilots, such as military helo guys, in the potential hire pool. Additionally, even some of the regionals, where some guys may need to go to build time before a major, are raising their pay above the living-in-a-2-bedroom-house-with-6-other-guys-eating-nothing-but-ramen-riding-a-used-bicycle-to-the-airport level. So I suspect our manning issues will start to be seen more in other communities. But I'm admittedly speculating there.

 

[HAL Pilot]

Another thing I think is worth considering is the fact that up until this point, VP, VQ & VR pilots are probably the best set-up for an airline job - they have the most fixed wing, multi-engine, actual instrument, international, turbine PIC, multi-pilot, transport category aircraft time.

FIFY

 

[CommodoreMid]

Calm down. By the time you're selecting for DH, your SWO brothers are rolling off of their DH tours to shore duty; our timeline is necessarily compressed to account for that. Most SWOs do a masters for their shore duty so PERS has decided not to take those NOB FITREPs into account for DH selection. Therefore, we screen for DH @ ~ 3.5 YCS.

Would it be nice to have an instructor or CSG tour's worth of paper to weigh in the decision? Sure, but I think most sane people will take 2 years in Monterey or Annapolis over a CSG staff tour.

I think everyone's happy that SWOs are actually screening people now and hopefully you guys continue to focus on emphasizing tours that promote warfighting, but the point we're all trying to make is that SWOs still get the option to take that 2 years in Monterey, whereas aviators to be competitive have to go to a production shore tour where they're working their asses off and then go do that shooter tour/CSG tour/back to the squadron as a training officer tour. The point is to say that the board comparing the screened JGs as more competitive than the aviators who do all of this and, in some cases, still don't make DH, is ridiculous.

 

[insanebikerboy]

This year's SWO DH board was the most competitive / most selective in the URL, period. That's incontrovertible.

Still waiting for the numbers to prove that pilot billets are going unfilled due to airline hiring. Thanks.

It's interesting you ask this now as I just spent a better part of a day perusing through FLTMPS on squadron billets (don't ask why). I can honestly say that I saw a lot of white space in VFA squadrons that I didn't see in helo and maritime squadrons.