NEWS Air Force leadership talks frankly about pilot retention

[azguy]

I think everyone's happy that SWOs are actually screening people now and hopefully you guys continue to focus on emphasizing tours that promote warfighting, but the point we're all trying to make is that SWOs still get the option to take that 2 years in Monterey, whereas aviators to be competitive have to go to a production shore tour where they're working their asses off and then go do that shooter tour/CSG tour/back to the squadron as a training officer tour. The point is to say that the board comparing the screened JGs as more competitive than the aviators who do all of this and, in some cases, still don't make DH, is ridiculous.

I don't think it's ridiculous, but it's clearly apples to oranges. I clearly didn't have a good picture of what your process looked like. Sounds like it's tough to make DH in most 13xx communities. Hopefully I've re-cal'd your understanding of how we do things.

This is all good stuff. I'm glad you guys in the green PJs are selecting the best and brightest to move on to DH. Just as you all have a vested interest in the fact that the SWO LT squeezing off SMs into the JEZ has his or her shit together.

 

[MIDNJAC]

Just as you all have a vested interest in the fact that the SWO LT squeezing off SMs into the JEZ has his or her shit together.

We've talked about this offline, but "Like!"

 

[pilot_man]

That's some good information. Thanks for posting it. And I'll admit, the data for Naval Aviation overall is a bit less grim than I expected. That being said, check out the slides around 19:00. You'll see that for FY2017, VFA and VAQ are projected to exactly meet their DH requirements (i.e., with no competition). And if I'm reading that slide correctly, they'll do so only if everyone eligible accepts DH orders and stays in - including those who have not yet taken the bonus and a small number who are no longer even eligible to take the bonus. That seems like a pretty optimistic assumption to me.

Here are facts (I'm sure they will be considered anecdotal by azguy):
I was in a squadron with 2 out of 4 DHs for a while. Another spot was filled by a non-screened super JO. Out of 5 TACAIR squadrons in the airwing I know of at least 1 other squadron in the same boat.
The fact that we can't even put warm bodies into spots should be pretty telling to the strength of our DH ranks.
I also know of 2 non DH screened O-4s who are currently in DH jobs.

PERS is making the numbers work how they want them to work.

 

[azguy]

Here are facts (I'm sure they will be considered anecdotal by azguy):
I was in a squadron with 2 out of 4 DHs for a while. Another spot was filled by a non-screened super JO. Out of 5 TACAIR squadrons in the airwing I know of at least 1 other squadron in the same boat.
The fact that we can't even put warm bodies into spots should be pretty telling to the strength of our DH ranks.
I also know of 2 non DH screened O-4s who are currently in DH jobs.

PERS is making the numbers work how they want them to work.

Why do you assume that your detailers are lying to you? What do they gain by covering up this alleged 'mass exodus' to the airlines and poor retention numbers?

Serious question - are you seeing a full-court press by PERS to your JOs to get them to stay for DH.

An anecdotal story of my own: I've noticed over the last 7 years that PERS-41 seems to be much, much more communicative to JOs in YGs that are undermanned for DH; and almost radio silent (as they were for me) towards guys in YGs that were overmanned for DH.

 

[pilot_man]

Why do you assume that your detailers are lying to you? What do they gain by covering up this alleged 'mass exodus' to the airlines and poor retention numbers?

Serious question - are you seeing a full-court press by PERS to your JOs to get them to stay for DH.

An anecdotal story of my own: I've noticed over the last 7 years that PERS-41 seems to be much, much more communicative to JOs in YGs that are undermanned for DH; and almost radio silent (as they were for me) towards guys in YGs that were overmanned for DH.

Because I have seen my peers leave in droves.

Why do you assume they are not? (p.s. Detailers openly admit that they are liars, they just like to say the truth changes.) Why can't we fill DH seats if there is a surplus of DH bodies? Why are non-DH screened O-4s filling DH seats by being pulled-up into those spots?

What do they gain? They are trying to stop the bleeding. They are going to keep telling us that the grass isn't greener and everything is fine over on this side of the fence. Otherwise things will just keep getting worse. The airlines are only going to hire more and more people in the future.

 

[sevenhelmet]

I have to agree with pilot_man on this. There are a lot of squadrons with only 2 or 3 DHs out there. I've had several friends have to roll early from shore duty to fill spots. I have a lot of friends who are leaving, and some who have already left. Guys are getting pulled to the left for O4 screening more often than not- not sure what that indicates. These observations abound in the VFA & VAQ community, despite PERS43 telling us the take rate of the bonus is enough to ensure full manning for DHs. (of note, some VFA pilots are filling VAQ DH spots, so they are definitely in a shortage)

Clearly, there is a disconnect somewhere.

 

[Recovering LSO]

I also know of 2 non DH screened O-4s who are currently in DH jobs.

Curious what happens when they outperform the "screened" DHs and the CO gives them a FITREP saying as much? If they're doing the DH job they ought to be in the game, right?

 

[Jim123]

I think I found that brief about the bonus and retention.

(edit: it's a repost but it never stops being funny)

 

[robav8r]

Another interesting, anecdotal fact: more O5 CO's are choosing to retire at or soon after their CoC than before. O6 results should be interesting this year, but I have seen several CO's who are cutting the cord at 20 years.

 

[Recovering LSO]

^ That's a number I'd like to see PERS come clean with it...

 

[hscs]

I would concur that things are rough, but I will also say we aren't in the same area code that we were in with the t-notch in late 90s. That was the heyday of living in your parents' basement day trading and becoming a millionaire. That was later followed up a few years later with making 100k a house by simply applying a can of paint to the dining room of a house.

What I saw in 98-00:
- a flag officer openly admit in the NASNI base theater stocked full of JOs that if you stayed in, you would make CO/O6.
- Pers brought Lucas group on a road show to say it ain't greener on the other side.
- good officers early select to O4 and then never make O5 due to some ridiculous timing issue (can't remember exact reasons)
- tons of officers leaving in the 04-06 timeframe - from the fear of coming in to the office on Monday and not their way to Iraq / Afghanistan on Friday for a year

Yes, it may be bad, but I really don't think it is as bad as it has been in the past. An airline hiring boom is not the raging economy of the late 90s.

As for the O5 crowd bailing, I don't think numbers are necessarily a big deal - staffs are way too big as it is and could deal with a lot less O6s. The problem is retaining the best qualified.

 

[Hotdogs]

Yes, it may be bad, but I really don't think it is as bad as it has been in the past. An airline hiring boom is not the raging economy of the late 90s.

That might be true for Navy types, but I garauntee you shit will only get worse for the Marines at the rate we're going. Multiple communities at or below 60% company grade manning already and manpower still has its head stuck in the sand or handcuffed by policy. The expected airline hiring wave is supposed to last more than decade. When rotary wing guys are actively making plans to jump into the airlines then you know there's a problem.

 

[Flash]

I would concur that things are rough, but I will also say we aren't in the same area code that we were in with the t-notch in late 90s...98-00...Yes, it may be bad, but I really don't think it is as bad as it has been in the past. An airline hiring boom is not the raging economy of the late 90s....

I was around at the same time and while I remember it being bad the T-notch was a relatively short term manning blip that was not a long-term, systemic issue. It was something that was going to last a few years then be done, an issue that could also be mitigated by adjusting folks before and after timing-wise to fill the gaps.

What I also heard talk about back then and did see the impact first-hand was the hiring boom for the airlines then that abruptly stopped with 9/11. That is now back and an even more urgent issue with the forced retirement of the much larger number of airline pilots for the major airlines over the next 15 or so years, something that wasn't looming back then.

 

[Gatordev]

^ That's a number I'd like to see PERS come clean with it...

I haven't seen the numbers from PERS, but I have seen it from an OCM. I can't remember if it was a PERS slide, though. Regardless, this doesn't seem to be a secret.

 

[Spekkio]

I think everyone's happy that SWOs are actually screening people now and hopefully you guys continue to focus on emphasizing tours that promote warfighting, but the point we're all trying to make is that SWOs still get the option to take that 2 years in Monterey, whereas aviators to be competitive have to go to a production shore tour where they're working their asses off and then go do that shooter tour/CSG tour/back to the squadron as a training officer tour. The point is to say that the board comparing the screened JGs as more competitive than the aviators who do all of this and, in some cases, still don't make DH, is ridiculous.

Huh? There is no board that does this. As I'm sure you're aware, there is a statutory board where URL LTs from multiple communities are selected for O-4 from the same pool, and there are community administrative boards that select officers from within specific communities for career milestones.

The SWO (and sub) communities conduct their DH screening at the tail end of a JOs initial sea duty because it was advantageous to do so. These communities can also allow said officers to do NOB post DIVO shore duties because the timing still affords them the ability to get two years into an at-sea DH tour as a LT and earn competitive paper for LCDR screening. While the aviation community doesn't have that particular luxury due to initial schooling, azguy's broader question is: what is the aviation community attempting to change within the administrative process to make officers and the community as a whole better set up for success?

My comment was predicated on: Flight school (API through wings) at two years, one year in RAG, three years at first sea tour, shore tour (in many cases flying/developing/learning/teaching), second sea tour (in some cases flying/developing/learning/teaching), and then on to DH tour. I recognize that is not the timeline for ALL TACAIR 1310s (or 1320s), but it's a starting point.

Are the "flying/developing/learning/teaching" billets in aviation looked at differently than other "instructor duty" billets at the statutory boards? As an analogue, I've never heard someone say that a billet at NPTU as shift eng or a tactics instructor at sub school would play better for O-4 than other shore duty options within our community.