NEWS Air Force leadership talks frankly about pilot retention

[azguy]

I've never seen any product like this produced by PERS-43. But since PERS doesn't have a published product proving that they aren't effectively dealing with a manning problem largely because they won't acknowledge its existence, I guess we'll just assume the person in the community doesn't know what's going on here, but the person outside of it does.

I have no problem believing that PERS-43 is fucking up. See my post above. PERS-41 did it too, as they took 3-5 years to catch on to a serious DH manning issues and rectify it, by increasing the bonus and making the DH board more selective.

If you want to tell me to f-off and stay out of your pooka, I respect that. I'll just leave you with the nagging reminder that, aside from anecdotal sea stories, you have no evidence for what you're spouting; re: airline hiring completely decimating DH/XO/CO manning amongst 1310s...

Have a good weekend...

 

[BigRed389]

The better questions to ask are, and this is if we could care less about the quality of the DH's and CO's we make, (as been alluded to in this thread with spots being given to mouth breathers):
1. What percentage of these people will stick around (forecast attrition)?
2. Is that enough to fill our DH and subsequent CO spots?
3. If it is not, how do we entice more to stay and what are the market forces that are enticing them to leave? (Is it pay? Quality of life? Both? The Air Force and Marine Corps seem to have both of those issues right now.)

I have a hard time thinking that any SWO at MSR vs. any pilot at MSR is more "valuable." Granted, that's an uneven comparison, since they are different years, however, if the SWO community can make their DH's with such apparently high attrition, than perhaps the input is too large to begin with (as in: too many MIDN become SWOs).

The Band Aid to this problem was to simultaneously crank up Ensign production and heavily incentivize staying in for the people they want to keep.

So you have a more competitive pool to begin with, and if you pass a competitive screening and make the decision to stay in early, you get a ~150K bonus. That's on top of new shore duty sweeteners, like Fleet Scholar Program (go fuck off and go to grad school with fully pay for a while), Industry tours (go fuck off at Google for a while), and WTI (get a cool patch you don't ever get to wear on anything!), among others.

Of course, if you're not one of these, then you're one of the "others."

 

[cfam]

Is it legitimate to compare SWO DH manning with Aviation DH manning? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought that SWOs screen for DH post MSR. By virtue of that timing, isn't the SWO selection rate naturally higher because people have already self-selected out?

As to the airline hiring decreasing the number of pilots sticking around for DH, I don't have a PERS brief, but here's a case in point: I work in an office with eight other JOs, half pilot/half ewo. Every one of the pilots is planning on getting out at their MSR and rushing the airlines. Granted, it's an extremely small sample size, but it's telling considering 1) every one of these guys is considered "on track" and 2) VAQ already has issues with filling pilot DH slots.

 

[Pags]

Planning to get out and are getting out are two different data sets. Unless someone has dropped their letter than they're not committed to getting out. A whole bunch of my peers talked about dropping their letters and then didn't. When it comes time to pull the trigger and give up a known evil for an unknown one many people balk (both in the military and in the civilian world).

 

[cfam]

Planning to get out and are getting out are two different data sets. Unless someone has dropped their letter than they're not committed to getting out. A whole bunch of my peers talked about dropping their letters and then didn't. When it comes time to pull the trigger and give up a known evil for an unknown one many people balk (both in the military and in the civilian world).

Valid, I should've clarified. All except for one have dropped their letters.

 

[FrankTheTank]

Not that I have much to add to this discussion.. Lots of good points and counter points. But don't forget the cost $$$ that it takes to make an Aviator versus a SWO..

 

[FrankTheTank]

Is it legitimate to compare SWO DH manning with Aviation DH manning? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I thought that SWOs screen for DH post MSR. By virtue of that timing, isn't the SWO selection rate naturally higher because people have already self-selected out?

As to the airline hiring decreasing the number of pilots sticking around for DH, I don't have a PERS brief, but here's a case in point: I work in an office with eight other JOs, half pilot/half ewo. Every one of the pilots is planning on getting out at their MSR and rushing the airlines. Granted, it's an extremely small sample size, but it's telling considering 1) every one of these guys is considered "on track" and 2) VAQ already has issues with filling pilot DH slots.

Last month had the privilege of flying with a Prowler/Growler new hire.. Sharp pilot.. Callsign KD.. Not sure if that's correct spelling

 

[azguy]

Not that I have much to add to this discussion.. Lots of good points and counter points. But don't forget the cost $$$ that it takes to make an Aviator versus a SWO..

It's a sunk cost.

Please, please, please, re-read my posts in this thread. I'm not putting out any earth-shattering information; this shit is extremely simple.

 

[SynixMan]

@DanMa1156 Nope, I meant crazy on the LTs part. I get the idea of trying to get paid as much while you can before you leave but you're adding 18-24 months to your Navy time in the prime of your working life in a dead end you don't want. And unless you have some kind of poison pill in your record, no guaranteeing you don't make O4 and wait around for two ADHSBs. All that for 2 bonus payments and $70k in severance? I'd argue you're better off being honest with yourself, planning a bit as a JO to pad the financial burden, and controlling your destiny.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

@DanMa1156 Nope, I meant crazy on the LTs part. I get the idea of trying to get paid as much while you can before you leave but you're adding 18-24 months to your Navy time in the prime of your working life in a dead end you don't want. And unless you have some kind of poison pill in your record, no guaranteeing you don't make O4 and wait around for two ADHSBs. All that for 2 bonus payments and $70k in severance? I'd argue you're better off being honest with yourself, planning a bit as a JO to pad the financial burden, and controlling your destiny.

That depends on the platform and service. Getting the 2p is getting me out a year before my winging contract is up. That's why extending contacts won't do much other than encourage people to tank the boards.

Oops, I misread this. Didn't realize you were discussing bonuses.

 

[DanMa1156]

@DanMa1156 Nope, I meant crazy on the LTs part. I get the idea of trying to get paid as much while you can before you leave but you're adding 18-24 months to your Navy time in the prime of your working life in a dead end you don't want. And unless you have some kind of poison pill in your record, no guaranteeing you don't make O4 and wait around for two ADHSBs. All that for 2 bonus payments and $70k in severance? I'd argue you're better off being honest with yourself, planning a bit as a JO to pad the financial burden, and controlling your destiny.

I've got to be honest with you, seeing as I'm a bit far away from it, but I didn't realize that taking the bonus incurs an extra obligation. I was under the impression that selecting DH incurs the obligation right?

I mean, if a dude is an MP/MP guy - why wouldn't he try to take the money and run?

I think I am missing something about taking the bonus...

 

[nittany03]

I've got to be honest with you, seeing as I'm a bit far away from it, but I didn't realize that taking the bonus incurs an extra obligation. I was under the impression that selecting DH incurs the obligation right?

I mean, if a dude is an MP/MP guy - why wouldn't he try to take the money and run?

I think I am missing something about taking the bonus...

From navy.mil last year: "Active duty officers who sign ADHRB contracts incur five years of obligated service and agree to be considered by the Aviation Department Head Screen Board (ADHSB) and, if selected, to accept department head orders and complete a department head tour. "

The way I read it, the obligation incurs from taking the King's gold. But if you FOSx2, it's another commitment the Navy can waive in order to get you out the door at the seven-month mark.

 

[armada1651]

If you want to tell me to f-off and stay out of your pooka, I respect that. I'll just leave you with the nagging reminder that, aside from anecdotal sea stories, you have no evidence for what you're spouting; re: airline hiring completely decimating DH/XO/CO manning amongst 1310s...

I have no problem with your input and I'm not trying to be a douche here, but the biggest part of the problem we're alleging is that the bureau won't admit that a problem exists. Obviously, if there was a Power Point slide on their website proving our point, it would become pretty hard to to maintain that stance. But since other communities apparently readily publish the information in question, I would say it's a little suspicious that 43 doesn't.

That being said, I have found at least one credible source corroborating what I'm saying - the paper CDR Snodgrass published in 2014. While he doesn't quantify the shortfall, he does say in his introduction, "The aviation community had a department head bonus “take rate” of 36% - well below the 45% target needed to ensure community health – most recently manifesting itself by a shortfall in the number of strike-fighter and electronic warfare aviators required for the department head screen board." He's referring to the 2013 numbers, and I'm sure you won't believe me, but the problem has not gotten better in the past couple years.

 

[azguy]

I have no problem with your input and I'm not trying to be a douche here, but the biggest part of the problem we're alleging is that the bureau won't admit that a problem exists. Obviously, if there was a Power Point slide on their website proving our point, it would become pretty hard to to maintain that stance. But since other communities apparently readily publish the information in question, I would say it's a little suspicious that 43 doesn't.

That being said, I have found at least one credible source corroborating what I'm saying - the paper CDR Snodgrass published in 2014. While he doesn't quantify the shortfall, he does say in his introduction, "The aviation community had a department head bonus “take rate” of 36% - well below the 45% target needed to ensure community health – most recently manifesting itself by a shortfall in the number of strike-fighter and electronic warfare aviators required for the department head screen board." He's referring to the 2013 numbers, and I'm sure you won't believe me, but the problem has not gotten better in the past couple years.

https://livestream.com/wab/tailhook2016/videos/135308669

I would invite you to watch from 8:00 on. I only watched until 12:00, so I'll reserve comment, but the message from 8 min - 12 min was pretty self explanatory.

Edit: this is PERS-43's 2016 debrief @ Tailhook this year.

 

[CommodoreMid]

You guys are screening your DHs when they only have 3 years in? As in not even done with their sea tours and still under MSR? Of course you can claim selectivity, you're screening JGs. Aviation side last year the average for O-4 selection between pilots/NFOs was 84%. You have to screen O-4 to even be considered for the DH board. I couldn't find last year's results for the exact numbers, but one lessons learned from 2013 I saw had a 60% OP DH screen rate, which seems pretty consistent from what I recall. .6*.84 = only 50% of those who have remained in the Navy get screened for OP DH. Pretty damn competitive from the aviation side.