23MAY2022 SNA/SNFO BOARD

[Furnace01]

Hi all, I got bored over the weekend, so I finished the analysis for the May pilot board using the ML model I built, and there’s a decent amount to unpack.

First, I updated the training data to include results from the beginning of 2020, and quickly retrained the model.
Running the May board scores through, the model accurately predicted True 72% of the time, and False at 28%.

Here’s the prediction/actual matrix.

	Prediction
Actual	Prorec-Y	Prorec-N
Prorec-Y	33	4
Prorec-N	12	8

Taking a look at the false predictions:
View attachment 35927

• There are definitely weird exceptions. A 60 8/8/8/ and 67 8/9/8 were not selected. Maybe it was the age, but there must’ve been something else going on with the package, or this was bad data.
• Some people got hyper lucky getting in with a 5/5/5. By all estimates, this would have been a N based on the model, but they somehow got it. The “N” prediction also probably has to do with the fact that only the nerds post their scores here so the model is biased to higher scores.
• Long story short, the model is doing a pretty decent job right now.

Next, I added the May board results to the training data (sans ISPP) and it should be much more robust than the first version I made last December. If I get really bored before shipping out, I might see about making a simple web app.

A couple of things I’ve noticed after retraining + analysis of the new model:

• OAR and PFAR have the most impact on prorec status with each contributing about 24% to the final result. This isn’t to say the OAR is important to getting a Y, but that it might mean you’re more likely to do better on PFAR if you have a higher OAR. Correlation != causation and all that jazz.
• Age and GPA are the next most important, with each contributing 10% to the final result. Age obviously is a negative impact, but it isn’t a huge amount.
• Flight exp, prior service, and sex still have basically no impact on the outcome (combined, only contributes ~9% to the final result)

And to those of you who requested that I run through your scores, I’ll be PMing you the results!

*disclaimer: this analysis is pretty half-assed and there are big holes in it. But, if you still want me to run your scores though, please let me know.

Would you mind running my scores? I still think I'm going to retake, but I'm just curious

 

[Ed014]

Question for those who were selected SNA on this board... My recruiter called me this week and said he was instructed to ask those slated for FY24 if they're able leave on a moments notice... and if so they will be placed on a list and potentially sent sooner rather than later... Anyone else hear anything similar from their recruiter? I'm a bit skeptical because of the stockpile of SNAs waiting to class up in Pensacola... makes no sense why'd they rush more selects through OCS to hurry up and wait

I was selected SNFO but I have seen a handful of SNA's leave sooner than expected. From my OCS class group chat one of our guys who was an SNA was asked if he wanted to leave in week and he accepted it. I have seen some more be asked in other group chats as well. Someone said SNA's are dropping before leaving to OCS because of the potential long wait time in Pensacola. So from observing it seems like they are replacing the spots with other SNA's not adding more.

 

[smpl_dude]

I was selected SNFO but I have seen a handful of SNA's leave sooner than expected. From my OCS class group chat one of our guys who was an SNA was asked if he wanted to leave in week and he accepted it. I have seen some more be asked in other group chats as well. Someone said SNA's are dropping before leaving to OCS because of the potential long wait time in Pensacola. So from observing it seems like they are replacing the spots with other SNA's not adding more.

Imagine giving up your golden ticket into naval aviation because you might have to sit around in the Florida sun for a bit longer than normal.

 

[space_sailor]

Imagine giving up your golden ticket into naval aviation because you might have to sit around in the Florida sun for a bit longer than normal.

absolutely bonkers - while making a solid paycheck too that most aren't even near

 

[carviator]

Imagine giving up your golden ticket into naval aviation because you might have to sit around in the Florida sun for a bit longer than normal.

After being on sea duty for the past 5 years I'm looking forward to a little break in Pensacola..I wouldn't mind even a six month class up wait lol.

 

[exNavyOffRec]

The triple 5's weren't ISPP, but were AD. I don't know if the individual just forgot to label as ISPP but it's definitely rare.

Age is surprisingly correlated to the results! Looking at the broader data, it seems like the older a person is, the higher scores they need to get in.

As long as a person meets the age requirement in the PA without a waiver they are to be considered, to use age in selection criteria would be considered discrimination.

 

[Triumph_MAC]

The triple 5's weren't ISPP, but were AD. I don't know if the individual just forgot to label as ISPP but it's definitely rare.

Age is surprisingly correlated to the results! Looking at the broader data, it seems like the older a person is, the higher scores they need to get in.

I got selected with a 49 6/7/6, 3 flight hours, and I turn 36 in October. I wouldn’t say the older you are the higher your score needs to be. I would say there’s a lot that goes into being selected in regards to whole package content.

 

[csanfilippo9]

Imagine giving up your golden ticket into naval aviation because you might have to sit around in the Florida sun for a bit longer than normal.

This^.

 

[csanfilippo9]

Also it seems like AD are getting their FINSEL letters quicker than civilians. Is this normal because I’m scheduled to leave for OCS 6-Nov-22.

 

[exNavyOffRec]

I got selected with a 49 6/7/6, 3 flight hours, and I turn 36 in October. I wouldn’t say the older you are the higher your score needs to be. I would say there’s a lot that goes into being selected in regards to whole package content.

They only take a minute or 2 at most for aviation, your 7 PFAR probably helped the most and being AD probably tipped the scales for them.

 

[elijahh36]

After being on sea duty for the past 5 years I'm looking forward to a little break in Pensacola..I wouldn't mind even a six month class up wait lol.

Just got off a 9 month deployment with only 3 port visits which were all together 2 weeks total days off the boat. Waiting six months to class up while getting Officer pay sounds like vacation to me lol

 

[FloridaDad]

So on these last few boards, did anyone apply 1SNA 2SNFO and actually get picked up SNA? My recruiter is pushing hard for me to not only apply SNA but add SNFO as well.

 

[BB Poison]

So on these last few boards, did anyone apply 1SNA 2SNFO and actually get picked up SNA? My recruiter is pushing hard for me to not only apply SNA but add SNFO as well.

Per the May 2022 results, yeah. Speaking from experience, don't let your recruiter push you to apply for something you don't want to do.

 

[FloridaDad]

He was telling me that if I apply pilot 1 flight officer 2 that they would look at me for pilots and only consider flight officer if they first decide no for pilot. That makes all the sense in the world, but everyone on here says to not do that and a lot of the board results seem to show that anyone that applies flight officer second ends up as a flight officer. To be clear, I would absolutely rather be a flight officer than not be in the Navy at all. But becoming a pilot is incredibly important to me and I would only accept flight officer if there was no way I could be a pilot.

 

[Ed014]

He was telling me that if I apply pilot 1 flight officer 2 that they would look at me for pilots and only consider flight officer if they first decide no for pilot. That makes all the sense in the world, but everyone on here says to not do that and a lot of the board results seem to show that anyone that applies flight officer second ends up as a flight officer. To be clear, I would absolutely rather be a flight officer than not be in the Navy at all. But becoming a pilot is incredibly important to me and I would only accept flight officer if there was no way I could be a pilot.

As long as you're fine with both! Go for it man! The people who said don't put both are the ones who only wanted to be an SNA and they know they wouldn't enjoy being an NFO but like @BB Poison said don't let your recruiter push you into applying for both if you're not okay with being an NFO if you were to be selected for only that.