23MAY2022 SNA/SNFO BOARD

[Triumph_MAC]

Mac, sounds like we will be in the same class! One of my previous students is also in the class.

Does anyone happen to know what screening is required to transfer to OCS for active duty? I know it’ll be in my orders but my command is trying to get everything completed prior to, to make the process quicker.

Thanks,

Nice!! Looking forward to our time together. After talking to Paul, sounds like we got some of the last seats for aviation this CY.

I’m not tracking on any other special screening especially with flight physicals being done. Anything you need should be in the fleet checklist that was accompanied with you FinSel.

 

[Shheen]

Sounds good, appreciate it fellas

 

[carviator]

I have a friend who left for ocs about a month ago. He had to redo his medicals with the flight doc because they were more than a year old according to him.

 

[elijahh36]

He emailed it to all of us.

Did he email it to you through your command email or personal email? Sorry for all the questions, I’m in the dark on this and my CO & CCC aren’t updating me on anything. Plus, I’m seeing a lot of AD guys getting their finsel letter so I’m getting a little worried

 

[carviator]

Did he email it to you through your command email or personal email? Sorry for all the questions, I’m in the dark on this and my CO & CCC aren’t updating me on anything. Plus, I’m seeing a lot of AD guys getting their finsel letter so I’m getting a little worried

He emailed my co but I believe he ccd me on it.

 

[Triumph_MAC]

Did he email it to you through your command email or personal email? Sorry for all the questions, I’m in the dark on this and my CO & CCC aren’t updating me on anything. Plus, I’m seeing a lot of AD guys getting their finsel letter so I’m getting a little worried

He cc’d the email I had on my package. So both personal and military

 

[Shheen]

Did he email it to you through your command email or personal email? Sorry for all the questions, I’m in the dark on this and my CO & CCC aren’t updating me on anything. Plus, I’m seeing a lot of AD guys getting their finsel letter so I’m getting a little worried

My chain didn’t understand that they were required to reply with a release date so I had to schedule a meeting to get things moving along.

 

[elijahh36]

My chain didn’t understand that they were required to reply with a release date so I had to schedule a meeting to get things moving along.

How did you find out that your chain didn't reply with a release date? ( Did Mr Paul email you about your CO not giving a release date?). I ask this because I don't want to assume that my CO is holding up the process by not replying with a simply release date. Also how would you recommend I go about setting up a meeting to move things along? ( Assuming my CO didn't give a release date)

 

[Triumph_MAC]

How did you find out that your chain didn't reply with a release date? ( Did Mr Paul email you about your CO not giving a release date?). I ask this because I don't want to assume that my CO is holding up the process by not replying with a simply release date. Also how would you recommend I go about setting up a meeting to move things along? ( Assuming my CO didn't give a release date)

I would say respectfully asking him. However, I’m coming from a command that I had regular conversations with my CO both professional and just shooting the breeze.

 

[Maze_soba]

Hi all, I got bored over the weekend, so I finished the analysis for the May pilot board using the ML model I built, and there’s a decent amount to unpack.

First, I updated the training data to include results from the beginning of 2020, and quickly retrained the model.
Running the May board scores through, the model accurately predicted True 72% of the time, and False at 28%.

Here’s the prediction/actual matrix.

	Prediction
Actual	Prorec-Y	Prorec-N
Prorec-Y	33	4
Prorec-N	12	8

Taking a look at the false predictions:

• There are definitely weird exceptions. A 60 8/8/8/ and 67 8/9/8 were not selected. Maybe it was the age, but there must’ve been something else going on with the package, or this was bad data.
• Some people got hyper lucky getting in with a 5/5/5. By all estimates, this would have been a N based on the model, but they somehow got it. The “N” prediction also probably has to do with the fact that only the nerds post their scores here so the model is biased to higher scores.
• Long story short, the model is doing a pretty decent job right now.

Next, I added the May board results to the training data (sans ISPP) and it should be much more robust than the first version I made last December. If I get really bored before shipping out, I might see about making a simple web app.

A couple of things I’ve noticed after retraining + analysis of the new model:

• OAR and PFAR have the most impact on prorec status with each contributing about 24% to the final result. This isn’t to say the OAR is important to getting a Y, but that it might mean you’re more likely to do better on PFAR if you have a higher OAR. Correlation != causation and all that jazz.
• Age and GPA are the next most important, with each contributing 10% to the final result. Age obviously is a negative impact, but it isn’t a huge amount.
• Flight exp, prior service, and sex still have basically no impact on the outcome (combined, only contributes ~9% to the final result)

And to those of you who requested that I run through your scores, I’ll be PMing you the results!

*disclaimer: this analysis is pretty half-assed and there are big holes in it. But, if you still want me to run your scores though, please let me know.

 

[extraschmedium]

Hi all, I got bored over the weekend, so I finished the analysis for the May pilot board using the ML model I built, and there’s a decent amount to unpack.

First, I updated the training data to include results from the beginning of 2020, and quickly retrained the model.
Running the May board scores through, the model accurately predicted True 72% of the time, and False at 28%.

Here’s the prediction/actual matrix.

	Prediction
Actual	Prorec-Y	Prorec-N
Prorec-Y	33	4
Prorec-N	12	8

Taking a look at the false predictions:
View attachment 35927

• There are definitely weird exceptions. A 60 8/8/8/ and 67 8/9/8 were not selected. Maybe it was the age, but there must’ve been something else going on with the package, or this was bad data.
• Some people got hyper lucky getting in with a 5/5/5. By all estimates, this would have been a N based on the model, but they somehow got it. The “N” prediction also probably has to do with the fact that only the nerds post their scores here so the model is biased to higher scores.
• Long story short, the model is doing a pretty decent job right now.

Next, I added the May board results to the training data (sans ISPP) and it should be much more robust than the first version I made last December. If I get really bored before shipping out, I might see about making a simple web app.

A couple of things I’ve noticed after retraining + analysis of the new model:

• OAR and PFAR have the most impact on prorec status with each contributing about 24% to the final result. This isn’t to say the OAR is important to getting a Y, but that it might mean you’re more likely to do better on PFAR if you have a higher OAR. Correlation != causation and all that jazz.
• Age and GPA are the next most important, with each contributing 10% to the final result. Age obviously is a negative impact, but it isn’t a huge amount.
• Flight exp, prior service, and sex still have basically no impact on the outcome (combined, only contributes ~9% to the final result)

And to those of you who requested that I run through your scores, I’ll be PMing you the results!

*disclaimer: this analysis is pretty half-assed and there are big holes in it. But, if you still want me to run your scores though, please let me know.

My man, can you run my scores?

 

[exNavyOffRec]

Hi all, I got bored over the weekend, so I finished the analysis for the May pilot board using the ML model I built, and there’s a decent amount to unpack.

First, I updated the training data to include results from the beginning of 2020, and quickly retrained the model.
Running the May board scores through, the model accurately predicted True 72% of the time, and False at 28%.

Here’s the prediction/actual matrix.

	Prediction
Actual	Prorec-Y	Prorec-N
Prorec-Y	33	4
Prorec-N	12	8

Taking a look at the false predictions:
View attachment 35927

• There are definitely weird exceptions. A 60 8/8/8/ and 67 8/9/8 were not selected. Maybe it was the age, but there must’ve been something else going on with the package, or this was bad data.
• Some people got hyper lucky getting in with a 5/5/5. By all estimates, this would have been a N based on the model, but they somehow got it. The “N” prediction also probably has to do with the fact that only the nerds post their scores here so the model is biased to higher scores.
• Long story short, the model is doing a pretty decent job right now.

Next, I added the May board results to the training data (sans ISPP) and it should be much more robust than the first version I made last December. If I get really bored before shipping out, I might see about making a simple web app.

A couple of things I’ve noticed after retraining + analysis of the new model:

• OAR and PFAR have the most impact on prorec status with each contributing about 24% to the final result. This isn’t to say the OAR is important to getting a Y, but that it might mean you’re more likely to do better on PFAR if you have a higher OAR. Correlation != causation and all that jazz.
• Age and GPA are the next most important, with each contributing 10% to the final result. Age obviously is a negative impact, but it isn’t a huge amount.
• Flight exp, prior service, and sex still have basically no impact on the outcome (combined, only contributes ~9% to the final result)

And to those of you who requested that I run through your scores, I’ll be PMing you the results!

*disclaimer: this analysis is pretty half-assed and there are big holes in it. But, if you still want me to run your scores though, please let me know.

High PFAR and non select often are due to something negative in the application, but not always sometimes they just miss a good application.

5's being selected is rare, they were not ISPP right? and not AD?

The age thing might be an anomaly, if they meet the age requirement and can graduate OCS in time that is not supposed to be a positive or negative thing.

 

[vbts13]

Question for those who were selected SNA on this board... My recruiter called me this week and said he was instructed to ask those slated for FY24 if they're able leave on a moments notice... and if so they will be placed on a list and potentially sent sooner rather than later... Anyone else hear anything similar from their recruiter? I'm a bit skeptical because of the stockpile of SNAs waiting to class up in Pensacola... makes no sense why'd they rush more selects through OCS to hurry up and wait

 

[BDavis11]

Question for those who were selected SNA on this board... My recruiter called me this week and said he was instructed to ask those slated for FY24 if they're able leave on a moments notice... and if so they will be placed on a list and potentially sent sooner rather than later... Anyone else hear anything similar from their recruiter? I'm a bit skeptical because of the stockpile of SNAs waiting to class up in Pensacola... makes no sense why'd they rush more selects through OCS to hurry up and wait

Hurry up and wait is the name of the military game

 

[Maze_soba]

High PFAR and non select often are due to something negative in the application, but not always sometimes they just miss a good application.

5's being selected is rare, they were not ISPP right? and not AD?

The age thing might be an anomaly, if they meet the age requirement and can graduate OCS in time that is not supposed to be a positive or negative thing.

The triple 5's weren't ISPP, but were AD. I don't know if the individual just forgot to label as ISPP but it's definitely rare.

Age is surprisingly correlated to the results! Looking at the broader data, it seems like the older a person is, the higher scores they need to get in.