Leaving Vietnam vs AFG

[robav8r]

Ok, I don't disagree with anything that you and @GroundPounder said but, in my head at least, that's still after the fact stuff. If someone says, "find me Steve Smith" we could figure out his cell phone ids, his credit card info, passport #, and probably pretty quickly find him in the western world provided that he's not trying to stay hidden. If he's just a guy on vacation in Paris who maybe disappeared we could probably find a trail via those methods. But can those methods be used the other way to identify folks needing evac? I'm sure you could see the traffic and make some guesses but how often are people using their AMEX in AFG? What if they have a local burner phone as opposed to the one on their Verizon account? Im sure actual answers to this quickly end up in BEADWINDOW territory and I'm not trying to go that way.

Are we trying to recover backpackers, NGOs, private company folks who happen to be US citizens or just USG folks? Individual citizens sometimes go places that you or I likely wouldn't go...like the guy my wife went to college with who ended up locked up in North Korea or folks who get locked up in Iran, Mexico, etc.

All good points BUT, I didn't mean to have this conversation or make my points in the context of a hypothetical scenario. I'm saying that in a well planned out evacuation from Afghanistan CONOP, the USG agencies and their assets could easily have figured out who was going, who was there, and start communication evac intentions to those folks. If we're shooting from the hip, in real time, then yes, the problem becomes more difficult, but certainly not impossible.

 

[Pags]

All good points BUT, I didn't mean to have this conversation or make my points in the context of a hypothetical scenario. I'm saying that in a well planned out evacuation from Afghanistan CONOP, the USG agencies and their assets could easily have figured out who was going, who was there, and start communication evac intentions to those folks. If we're shooting from the hip, in real time, then yes, the problem becomes more difficult, but certainly not impossible.

I guess I just have a dimmer view of the USG to be able to accurately account for all the folks who are in country. Even if there was a "master in country" database I'm sure it was an xls that was kept on someone's desktop until their computer had to be reimaged following the latest enterprise SW update failure.

 

[robav8r]

I guess I just have a dimmer view of the USG to be able to accurately account for all the folks who are in country. Even if there was a "master in country" database I'm sure it was an xls that was kept on someone's desktop until their computer had to be reimaged following the latest enterprise SW update failure.

I don't disagree, but I wonder to to what extent there was negligence vice incompetence during what you would hope occured in the planning efforts months ago.

 

[taxi1]

Up until recently, you just needed an airline ticket and I guess a Visa to get there. Just book a commercial flight. This story amazes me. Family going back to Afghanistan for summer vacation (from there originally).

Dozens of California students, parents stranded in Afghanistan after summer trip abroad

Dozens of California students and parents are stranded in Afghanistan after taking a summer trip to the country.More than 20 students and 16 parents from the Cajon Valley Union Schoo…

thehill.com

 

[GroundPounder]

Up until recently, you just needed an airline ticket and I guess a Visa to get there. Just book a commercial flight. This story amazes me. Family going back to Afghanistan for summer vacation (from there originally).

Dozens of California students, parents stranded in Afghanistan after summer trip abroad

Dozens of California students and parents are stranded in Afghanistan after taking a summer trip to the country.More than 20 students and 16 parents from the Cajon Valley Union Schoo…

thehill.com

According to their webpage, they require masks to be work in school.


Seems reasonable, require masks, but sponsor school trips to F'ing Afganistan. An excellent risk management process.

 

[croakerfish]

According to their webpage, they require masks to be work in school.


Seems reasonable, require masks, but sponsor school trips to F'ing Afganistan. An excellent risk management process.

From the article, sounds like this was personal travel and this guy in the school district is just the one who heard from them and is sending up the balloon.

 

[FrankTheTank]

I hope this isn’t true.. But as embarrassing this whole thing has been, I would be surprised!

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...msn&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=msn_feed

 

[taxi1]

From the article, sounds like this was personal travel

I think so. U until the stuff hit the fan you could happily book to Kabul commair.

I remember in Djibouti accidentally sitting in the airport waiting area for a commercial flight to Mogadishu, the same place we were ISR-ing the heck out of.

 

[pilot_man]

I guess I just have a dimmer view of the USG to be able to accurately account for all the folks who are in country. Even if there was a "master in country" database I'm sure it was an xls that was kept on someone's desktop until their computer had to be reimaged following the latest enterprise SW update failure.

DoS has a fairly good idea of the number of AMCITs, TCNs, and those who would be eligible for evacuation in a situation like this. They have a better idea than 200 or 20,000 but do build in slop since there are those that slip through the cracks. Any American, no matter why they are there, are authorized to be evacuated in a NEO. Sometimes they would have to reimburse DoS for their travels, but I've heard that was waived in this case.

 

[SlickAg]

DoS has a fairly good idea of the number of AMCITs, TCNs, and those who would be eligible for evacuation in a situation like this. They have a better idea than 200 or 20,000 but do build in slop since there are those that slip through the cracks. Any American, no matter why they are there, are authorized to be evacuated in a NEO. Sometimes they would have to reimburse DoS for their travels, but I've heard that was waived in this case.

Listening to the Secretary of State’s presser earlier today didn’t give me much faith in their being dialed in on the actual number.

It also sounded like, to me, that he was setting himself up for the future when he could say “well they didn’t WANT to leave” or “they didn’t contact us for help so we didn’t know about them” when Americans inevitably get left behind.

I’d love to be wrong, but his whole aura just didn’t give me the sense that everything is under control and they have a good plan in place with some strong COAs.

 

[robav8r]

Updated numbers from SECSTATE.

 

[HAL Pilot]

Dude, careful or you'll get the standard boilerplate response from the resident expert on all things... "You’re also not paying attention to what we’re discussing."

Dude, if you’d like to interject upon a discussion that Wink and I are having, at least get an idea of what the argument is before you do so.… dude.

You called it @ABMD. Different words but same meaning.

The funny part is that @Brett327 is so pompous and self delusional that he doesn't understand nobody cares what he thinks (paraphrasing a PM he sent me recently to try and intimidate me with his mod status).

 

[Hair Warrior]

Sec state commented on US citizens not leaving earlier:

US citizens told to STOP coming to Kabul airport due to terror threat

The State Department issued an urgent warning in the early hours of Thursday morning in Kabul for all U.S. citizens to immediately leave three of the main entrance gates to the airport.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[croakerfish]

Who the hell are these random US citizens hanging around in Afghanistan? Missionaries and NGO workers?

 

[ABMD]

Who the hell are these random US citizens hanging around in Afghanistan? Missionaries and NGO workers?

Yes, lots of missionaries and aid workers.