Captain Crozier was the epitome of an over-reaction in the worst kind of way. Still believe it was right to fire him. Looking back a year later only reinforces my viewpoint…
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COVID-19
- Thread starter Treetop Flyer
- Start date
Just wondering but were you there during the initial outbreak?
I have said this before, but you have to look through the lens of what he thought and said based on what was known at the time, which was virtually nothing. The science, as it was known then (Talking March of last year), said that 0.2% of healthy people in the 18-35 range would die from the disease. Out of 5000 people that would be 10 deaths. Assuming that folks on Navy deployment were probably the best people to get it the number was cut in half, which still means that 5 people were gong to die. Couple that with a complete inability to socially distance or quarantine people and the rate at which folks would catch this thing and potentially need ICU beds which vastly outnumbered the capability not just on board, but what existed in Guam. Also the transmission numbers were backed up by a Navy study on COVID-19 onboard a deployed ship and bounced off the Diamond Princess study as well. Even though the population onboard was drastically different, it was about the speed of transmission outpacing the ability to treat potentially life threatening conditions more than the final outcome.
Again, you have to look at the choices made at that time through the lens of what we knew at that time. I am positive that the response would have been drastically different knowing what we know now, but that was simply not the case then.
I still think I could write an entire book on what happened from my perspective, maybe one day I will....
Nope, I was in Sicily at the time. We didn’t miss any Ops for COVID because we took a calm, and science-based, approach to our adjustment to life. Two extra months of deployment and a lot of food deliveries by my Sailors for the incoming squadron as the ROM’ed through the RIP.
Also had zero e-mails blasted out to the media and higher…
But that's the problem, you are taking what you knew even a few weeks or a month later and applying to the situation on the TR. The choices and predictions made AT THAT TIME were based on scientific reports from Oxford and the US Navy itself.
Sounds like you were also based ashore and not on a deployed ship at the time. Again the transmission rate prediction was based on the only scientific study available at the time which was the Diamond Princess and backed up by a study from the US Navy saying how fast it would spread on a deployed ship. You have to understand that based on the Navy study, the entire crew was predicted to contract, or at least be exposed to the disease in less than three weeks from day 0 which was determined to be a few days prior to the first confirmed case.
I am not saying that through the lens of hindsight the choices made were correct, but they were correct at the time given the scientific data that was available.
Lastly, it was determined it was not Capt Crozier who sent the email to the press. There is a whole other conversation to be had on that sequence of events but he was not the one that did it.
Sounds like you were also based ashore and not on a deployed ship at the time. Again the transmission rate prediction was based on the only scientific study available at the time which was the Diamond Princess and backed up by a study from the US Navy saying how fast it would spread on a deployed ship. You have to understand that based on the Navy study, the entire crew was predicted to contract, or at least be exposed to the disease in less than three weeks from day 0 which was determined to be a few days prior to the first confirmed case.
I am not saying that through the lens of hindsight the choices made were correct, but they were correct at the time given the scientific data that was available.
Lastly, it was determined it was not Capt Crozier who sent the email to the press. There is a whole other conversation to be had on that sequence of events but he was not the one that did it.
Pickle - respect your opinion and comments. A year later, i'm convinced the CSG, 7th Fleet, PACFLT, and PACOM Commanders should have shouldered a LOT more of the responsibility. Capt Crozier was an easy target, and I get he was in charge on CVN-71, but his leadership did him NO favors . . . .
Spekkio
He bowls overhand.
No, the important part is preventing hospitalization or death. Raw case count is being used as a leading predictor of pending hospital loading and mortality.... Which gets divided by 10-25 if everyone is vaccinated.
Agreed
Your rationalization for the mandate may be different than Biden's, and that's fine, but since he's the one issuing the mandate, your opinion on what's important is irrelevant. Biden stated the mandate was because it reduces transmission, so that is what is important to the government.
This (both parts). I guess he did the old ATP not too long ago. My guess is that he is headed to greener pastures that don't involve carrying around a hydra and being beholden to said leadership. Good for him. I doubt he will have any trouble looking at himself in the mirror in the afterlife.
This times 100.
But I will throw out the other part that I wonder about is how much information was filtered out when it hits those people. That leads to questions from those people, which lead to delays and the appearance that nothing was getting done anywhere up the chain of command. Sadly seems standard for people in the line to only pass on what they think their superior wants to know instead of giving them the information or clearly explaining the situation.
I will say that the report that came out eventually was definitely written to save higher authority than to get at the root cause of the problem. This sentiment was echoed by a number of people involved in the situation as well.
Fascinating Twitter thread. I’d love for some people to take a look at it and explain how she’s wrong in her conclusions.
FYSA: Some large US private sector firms are using 3rd party arbitrators to adjudicate employee medical and religious waiver requests. A rejected waiver means vaccinate or get fired on date X without separation pay. Word is that the 3rd party arbiter is a company solely set up to perform these adjudications, take any legal heat, and then fade off into the ether so no one can come back around years later to dispute that 3rd party company’s processes or policy - its corporate entity will be dissolved and their staff working elsewhere. Word is also that the 3rd party company is under guidance to blanket deny all medical waivers unless you have a certain specific rare disorder (forget which one they said), and to blanket deny all religious waivers to anyone who has ever had any vaccine previously in life, including flu, polio, or the shots they give all babies at birth in hospitals. This is all heresay of course but I’m hearing it at senior corporate levels as matter-of-fact. YMMV. Something to keep an eye on.
ABMD
Bullets don't fly without Supply
We'll see when push comes to shove if they hold out, but losing 12,000 (or 3%) at once is probably a bigger hit to readiness than a few dozen being home sick for 2 weeks.
"The Air Force declined to say how many airmen appear to be outright refusing vaccination versus how many are seeking exemptions or have opted out because they are nearing their scheduled exit from the military. The Air Force will release some of those details after next week’s deadline passes, said Ann Stefanek, a spokesperson for the service."
"Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby said this week that, generally, the number of religious exemptions for any vaccine is “very, very small.” The Army, which is the largest military service, has granted just one permanent medical exemption and no religious exemptions for the coronavirus vaccine, officials said. The Navy hasn’t granted any religious exemptions for any vaccine — for the coronavirus or otherwise — in the past seven years."
Maybe China will wait to invade Taiwan til after we kick out 4% of the force.
In other news, who could have seen this coming after fear mongering people into forced isolation the last two years:
www.npr.org
In other news, who could have seen this coming after fear mongering people into forced isolation the last two years:
ERs are now swamped with seriously ill patients — but many don't even have COVID
Patients who couldn't see a doctor earlier in the pandemic or were too afraid to go to a hospital have finally become too sick to stay away. Many ERs now struggle to cope with an onslaught of need.
www.npr.org