MasterBates
Well-Known Member
As am I. I'm a YG-02 guy who got pulled up to 01. This was my 2x FOS, so I'm out. It is curious how everything dissappeared the day after the results came out.
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Congrats to all the FY12 DH selectees!!
- Thread starter Flying Low
- Start date
I'm not sure what the reason is to hold on to the stats. Everyone already knows their bad. Is this how things started with the T notch?
If I am not mistaken - the Tech boom in the late 1990s helped create the T-notch.
What is the T notch?
T-notch is/was a series of YGs where the officer manning was ridiculously low. The saying, as my old OIC told us, was "3.0 to CO" - 3.0 being your trait average. T-notch hampered PERS's efforts at HR management because you couldn't do much other than promote people who stayed in, fogged a mirror and didn't get a DUI.
fattestfoot
In it for the naked volleyball
So is the T-notch they're trying to avoid around YG's 01-04 or so?
I ask because right now it seems like they're heading towards something similar. I don't know the total number of accessions they're going after, but I do know that OCS has been cut back dramatically (about 54% since FY10). Seems to me that that will come back to bite the Navy around 2020.
I ask because right now it seems like they're heading towards something similar. I don't know the total number of accessions they're going after, but I do know that OCS has been cut back dramatically (about 54% since FY10). Seems to me that that will come back to bite the Navy around 2020.
BI is spot on. During the post ODS RIF, the Navy elected to make endstrenght by Cutting the numbers coming in vice booting folks who were already in.
That squeeze on accessions is what caused the T Notch.
Without the board stats, I'll make up my own... but here's what I noticed, the O-4 board this year selected about as many (478 I think) as the O-5 board did last year (444). Massive forward creep in 3 years?
MasterBates
Well-Known Member
I don't have the "eligibles" vs select numbers at the moment, since I can't get to the website, but I remember when I did some quick calculations, the numbers looked super low.. Like 60-65% select rate, even after it being about 1/2 the normal eligibles. I assumed no/very few AZ selects when I did the math, because I did not feel like going name for name with the AZ guys. I know of ONE. (not me)
When I talked to my detailer to get my separation orders cut, he said VAW had a 90% screen rate, and it was 80% overall, but that did not really jive with my math.
Of course, if they'd release the stats, it would end the speculation. But why would BUPERS do that?
When I talked to my detailer to get my separation orders cut, he said VAW had a 90% screen rate, and it was 80% overall, but that did not really jive with my math.
Of course, if they'd release the stats, it would end the speculation. But why would BUPERS do that?
Since they just had a board to kick out a bunch of O-5's, I'd say that we can't afford all the O-5's we have right now.
IMO you can't make the assumption that the selection rate for O-5's will be up sound 90% based on this years numbers. The Navy wll keep the percentages where it wants and will control it through more AZ selects and a smaller total number of selects.
I think I got something like 78% when I did the math (when the results posted, the eligible list was still up, and I was on duty, plenty of time to number crunch.) Maybe 4 AZ IIRC.
Helolumpy- I wasn't suggesting a significantly higher selection rate, but exactly what you are saying, Navy will want to keep the percentages the same. I think, with the O5 retention board and fewer O4 selcts, they will do it by putting more in zone, hence a forward creep in a few years.
It will be interesting to see what the official BUPERS numbers are, whenever they get around to releasing them, and what fewer selects will do to DH selection rates next year...
Helolumpy- I wasn't suggesting a significantly higher selection rate, but exactly what you are saying, Navy will want to keep the percentages the same. I think, with the O5 retention board and fewer O4 selcts, they will do it by putting more in zone, hence a forward creep in a few years.
It will be interesting to see what the official BUPERS numbers are, whenever they get around to releasing them, and what fewer selects will do to DH selection rates next year...
MasterBates
Well-Known Member
Even 78% is pretty bad considering they dragged about 1/4 of YG02 into YG01, and there is a LARGE chunk of YG02 that got pushed back to YG03. And we weren't a huge YG to start with, compared to a lot of the post 9/11 years.
This will be interesting. I made it and given my...curious...career path, I was kinda surprised. The real proof in the pudding will be next spring when the DH board is held. If I make that, well, then pretty much everything you've been told will be out the window...
I surely do not understand the low selection rate. It sure seems like few were selected when compared to the previous year. I mean, I'm no MasterBates, but I was surprised to make it!
I KEED I KEED!
I surely do not understand the low selection rate. It sure seems like few were selected when compared to the previous year. I mean, I'm no MasterBates, but I was surprised to make it!
I KEED I KEED!