In my case, I had timing that forced my hand before I effectively got what was planned to be my highwater FITREP on my first tour. That has had the effect of making me an "untouchable" if there was a caste system in Naval Aviation. I got production orders because I had a great CO/XO and Wing Commodore who all tried to explain the situation to PERS-43 but, as you can imagine, memories fade and the detailer has told me to expect to not make O-4 or screen for DH no matter how well I perform(ed) at my second tour. I also belong to a community, that the last time it was briefed to me, that promotion rates for EP/EP players were the worst (maybe second worst?) in all of Naval Aviation, so I don't exactly have a sense of job security. I get that for the vast majority of people in my position (production orders), most will make O-4, but I'd say that in my community, only a little over half (I'd guess 5/7th) of people are getting some sort of production job to begin with - the other 2/7th are already non-players for O-4.
In fairness, I was just curious, but let's say the economy tanks 2 years from now and now my opportunities I thought I had dry up. I'd consider it if they gave me desirable orders and had no other opportunity at the time. I'm sure you've seen in CNATRA probably half the Marines at the O-3 level (at least on the HT side) are on continuation because they told the detailer "give me flight orders or I don't accept continunation." In my case, I'd at least entertain a similar threat and follow through on it - no one is going to accept it if the orders on the other side are "unusually arduous sea duty."