I know of one 1305 that did it.
They promoted next board after fixing their record and a couple flag recommendations, having done almost 2 years ADSW in a high vis joint billet.
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O-4/DH Selection vs 2FOS
- Thread starter Sailor_Dave_99
- Start date
They promoted next board after fixing their record and a couple flag recommendations, having done almost 2 years ADSW in a high vis joint billet.
There were boards about 5 years ago now where, if you do real math and not BUPERS fuzzy math, the actual select rate for a given YG was at best 50 percent. For aviators. Nucs, shoes, EOD and SEALs still picking up at like 90 percent, while the NAE is giving some multiple-EP players walking papers and promoting others. No ability to say why, because board confidentiality.
Everyone who was in to see that has been understandably gunshy since.
In my case, I had timing that forced my hand before I effectively got what was planned to be my highwater FITREP on my first tour. That has had the effect of making me an "untouchable" if there was a caste system in Naval Aviation. I got production orders because I had a great CO/XO and Wing Commodore who all tried to explain the situation to PERS-43 but, as you can imagine, memories fade and the detailer has told me to expect to not make O-4 or screen for DH no matter how well I perform(ed) at my second tour. I also belong to a community, that the last time it was briefed to me, that promotion rates for EP/EP players were the worst (maybe second worst?) in all of Naval Aviation, so I don't exactly have a sense of job security. I get that for the vast majority of people in my position (production orders), most will make O-4, but I'd say that in my community, only a little over half (I'd guess 5/7th) of people are getting some sort of production job to begin with - the other 2/7th are already non-players for O-4.
In fairness, I was just curious, but let's say the economy tanks 2 years from now and now my opportunities I thought I had dry up. I'd consider it if they gave me desirable orders and had no other opportunity at the time. I'm sure you've seen in CNATRA probably half the Marines at the O-3 level (at least on the HT side) are on continuation because they told the detailer "give me flight orders or I don't accept continunation." In my case, I'd at least entertain a similar threat and follow through on it - no one is going to accept it if the orders on the other side are "unusually arduous sea duty."
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I only ask that because it seems that alot of Marines are intentionally punting 0-4 boards vice actively trying to get promoted. I.e. As long as you did the minimum required things (PME, Picture, PFT, Pistol) You’re more than likely going to make 0-4 as an Aviator in the Corps. As long as you didn’t have consistently poor fitreps (...which based on flight and ground job progression isn’t ridiculously hard). There are always a hand full of guys who get passed for unknown reasons but that number is usually pretty low.
Good math, but you're missing the opportunity cost of the extra year and a half you're giving to the Navy, most likely in some kind of non-trival sea duty. Instead, you could use some of your best working years to get ahead in your next job and play the long game. I've got nothing against someone who loves this job and legitimately wants to play for LCDR and DH, but falls short and the severance makes a nice cushion. Good for them, I hope things work out. It's quite another to cynically sell some years of your life for a payout. Maybe some of you are more mentally resistant to that kind of thing, but it would suck the life out of me. Obviously if the economy takes a 2010 style dip, sure, prospects might be better to stay in uniform versus unemployment, and none of us have a crystal ball.
BT
@DanMa1156 With regards to continuation, the Marines doing that are in quite an advantageous spot. They are generally on 6 year winging contracts, have TBS and some MATSG bullshit time to push them towards O-4 boards, and the Corps is hurting for O-3 Aviators to fill their CNATRA billets. So it's win/win for them and the monitor to stay in a flying billet for years. Short of VTJs, I can't think of a similar situation in the Navy. There's is a drout in 1xxx LT/LCDRs to fill staffs doing operational planning and make work from flag level staffs.
Also if you get a disability rating that gives a monthly check, that goes to paying off seps pay. The result is you don’t get the disability pay for a while but your retirement pay will be intact.
bluemarlin04
Well-Known Member
This was my reasoning for just leaving prior to it.
I didnt want to do 2 years in some trivial staff billets (I am an 1830) and be FITREP fodder for the hot runners.
Plus, I knew I wanted out and what if the small chance that I made O-4 happened?
Supply had the same issue with low promotion percentages to O-4 these last few years. The goal for any community is to make that flawless board package: no missing photo, no goofy FITREPs, those coveted soft and hard break outs, the right tours, letters where necessary, no air gaps or breaks in continuity, etc.
I think part of the challenge recently is the board members consist of O-6s and O-5s who never dealt with the 50 percent opportunity during their days as senior O-3s, thus each have their own take on what breaks you out. This made it very stressful trying to align all the stars to beat "the crunch" when senior mentors all have different takes on the O-4 board. One O-7 during a records review basically read me my rites and told me may career was over, a shock as she was a long trusted mentor who would never BS me. Another O-6 told me just the opposite not knowing me from Steve. Another O-6 again told me the end was nigh. Another O-7 looked at my record, saw one subspec and AQD combo he had an affinity for, and said don't worry. I'm convinced if it was in the 90s, they all would have ask why I was bothering them.
I wouldn't worry though as a lot of the communities are approaching strength and will be back to the 90% climate before long (ie: don't get a DUI, don't commit frat, don't get fired and your are golden).
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Sailor_Dave_99
New Member
Is that really a definite result? I've heard to the contrary but potentially not from a reliable source. OP-T DH will not make CDR? Or are we talking just a decreased probability?
I think the number is actually two now, but for all practical purposes, it’s zero.