VICTORY in IRAQ?? What is Victory?? Is there any substitute for VICTORY??

[eddie]

Eddie,

Yes, the de-baathification did alot to alienate the standing powerbase in the Sunni sectors. Particularly in Al Anbar. Though I dont think it was the most significant factor.

It may have been a bad idea. But at the time there were some serious fears of bigger problems if they were left in place. They had significant combat power and we had inadequate forces in place to hold it together if one year later they put something together. Remember, we had "won" with a small force and pressure was on to reduce the footprint in theatre before the Abrams had even shut down their engines.

Its a hotly contested decision but pinning the insurgency on it alone or it "mostly" is short sighted. I'de bet that without hindsight most others in Amb Bremmer's position would have done something at least similar.


The insurgency in the south was an altogether different animal and remains such.

Thanks for this.

I clearly have some more reading to do... and yet part of me thinks the (my) "need" to dissect and understand the whole situation now now now is part of the problem. Evaluate the scenario, make my intellectual thought-point, and wash my hands of it, having "solved it" in my own mind without actually doing a damn thing to contribute to the actual solution.

I catch myself doing it too often, I catch too many others doing it far too often. I'm going to go run now, in the hopes that I may yet earn the privelage to make my own contribution to the solution.

 

[wink]

No, I don't know ... ya know??

That's the difference between Air Warriors and the other relatively useless forums you may have visited in the past; those which you are more familiar with and those who's chief function is to engage in varying degrees of mental masturbation to no effect.

Questions are fine; respectful questions are even better --- but opinions and observations of guys who have actually "done something" carry more weight on AW's than opinions or impressions of guys who haven't done shit ....

I might add that another reason AW is different is because of the incredible effort put into vetting anyone that claims to have BTDT. Because we have a boat load of guys that have been all around the military (yes we have reach into the other branches as well), some past and currently well connected, we can smoke out a posers fairly quickly. There are a handful of Mods that are bull dogs about rooting out frauds and very web savvy at that. So if a guy with a reasonable post count speaks with authority about something you can be pretty damn sure the AW Mod Squad has checked them out and has ALLOWED them the privilege of participating on this forum. At any given time Mods are behind the scenes working hard to maintain the integrity of the gouge you guys get and the truthfulness of testimonials. Yup, people can say whatever they want on the internet. But if it comes from a guy on AW that claims to have BTDT your AW Mod squad will make sure it comes from a valid perspective.

 

[voodooqueen]

Speaking as a student, so armchair philosophy at its finest, I dont think there can be any real victory until we really win the hearts and minds or kill them all, or get the Iraqis to want to take responsibility.

We arent going to win the hearts and minds. Those we are fighting against are zealots. The dont want to listen to reason or pay attention to any public works we are doing. Look at the abortion debate, im sure most of us have seen that once or twice. Did anyone ever change their mind? Didnt you see a lot of pointless agruments on both sides that it seemed like people were going to never give up no matter how stupid? I just dont see how we can do this.

Kill them all is the most foolproof but least PR friendly. You can clamp down all you want but insurgency is just a tough nut to crack. Heck, thats how we beat th Brits.

I have no idea what the Iraqi political climate is so rather than talk about something i have *no* idea about, ill just stop here.

Well, those crusades didn't win many hearts and minds, back in the day, so the answer must be to kill them all--if those are the options.

 

[voodooqueen]

Victory = Doing China's dirty work so they don't cash in their T-bills, A strategic chess piece in the Middle East, Pro-"I like money and the things it buys", a continued de-valuation of the dollar to bring smaller countries in the region to the world market, and control of the Oil to repay the hemorrhaging of U.S capital abroad (hmmmm 5 bucks a gallon, maybe we already are???) . The best possible outcome...

We will not overcome the radical idealism of the fanatics through peace talks and compromise, about as ambitious as creating steam with french fry lard and banana peels.

I heard that you can convert cars to run on french fry grease and banana peels--

 

[voodooqueen]

+ 1 when my "rep gun" gets reloaded.

And it just dawned on me that "victory" is not necessarily "peace", either.

WW2 was a direct result of a botched "victory" in WW1.

25 +/- years later, we won, big time, over the entire globe in 1945, but because of a lack of focus and wrongheaded "policies", we ushered in the longest "war" we've ever been in w/ 10's of thousands of casualties -- the Cold War.

Maybe victory is an absolute, like perfection, and therefore it can never be truly achieved.

 

[nittany03]

Maybe victory is an absolute, like perfection, and therefore it can never be truly achieved.

Based on A4s' assertion, I would say "victory" is eminently possible and necessary, but "peace" is an absolute and can never truly be achieved. Except perhaps here:

And of course here:

 

[Flash]

Comments from a former Commandant of the Army War College to Congress, very astute comments on the current situation:

"The counterinsurgency strategy implemented by [Army Gen. David H.] Petraeus is the right one and cannot be substantially altered. The crucible of patience among the American people is emptying at a prodigious rate and very little short of a complete shift in conditions on the ground is likely to refill it.

The military balance of power cannot be changed very much throughout the remainder of the surge. Al Qaeda has been pushed into a northern corner of Iraq, and constant harassment by the US military, supported by the Sons of Iraq [locally recruited, largely Sunni security forces supported by the United States], effectively limits how much mischief they can cause. But their numbers, though small, have remained fairly constant. The United States has run out of military options as well. The Army went into this war with too few ground troops. In a strange twist of irony, for the first time since the summer of 1863, the number of ground soldiers available is determining American policy rather than policy determining how many troops we need."

Note for Mods; Though it appears in the paper, since it is testimony to Congress it is not covered by copyright, link provided.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...06/AR2008060603533.html?nav=rss_print/outlook

 

[raptor10]

Victory is close in Iraq!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121305438938259017.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries

 

[voodooqueen]

Victory is close in Iraq!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121305438938259017.html?mod=opinion_main_commentaries

"..these tremendous gains remain fragile.." This actually seems less slanted than the usual Wall Street Journal articles. It certainly would be nice to see a measurable, long term victory.

 

[Flash]

"..these tremendous gains remain fragile.." This actually seems less slanted than the usual Wall Street Journal articles. It certainly would be nice to see a measurable, long term victory.

I would hate to be picky but it is an Opinion piece, not an article, very big difference.

Kagan is a little too rosy, things are going a lot better but not as good as he describes. There are still a myriad of unsolved issues that he does nto even come close to touching.

 

[raptor10]

I would hate to be picky but it is an Opinion piece, not an article, very big difference.

Kagan is a little too rosy, things are going a lot better but not as good as he describes. There are still a myriad of unsolved issues that he does nto even come close to touching.

Are you allowed to talk about any of them?

 

[Flash]

Are you allowed to talk about any of them?

Massive and unbridled corruption, lack of basic services throughout the country, unresolved territorial claims of the Kurds (ie: Mosul), Muqtada al-Sadr, government distrust of the 'Awakening' movement that has helped cut the violence and the upcoming drawdown of US troops to name just a few.

A lot of progress, more than I had hoped just a few months ago, but a very long way to go.

 

[Herc_Dude]

Words ... but a very long way to go.

Come on Flash, that glass is half full!

 

[Zissou]

Massive and unbridled corruption, lack of basic services throughout the country, unresolved territorial claims of the Kurds (ie: Mosul), Muqtada al-Sadr, government distrust of the 'Awakening' movement that has helped cut the violence and the upcoming drawdown of US troops to name just a few.

A lot of progress, more than I had hoped just a few months ago, but a very long way to go.

Probably the most insightful post on this forum that I am aware of...

 

[voodooqueen]

I would hate to be picky but it is an Opinion piece, not an article, very big difference.

Kagan is a little too rosy, things are going a lot better but not as good as he describes. There are still a myriad of unsolved issues that he does nto even come close to touching.

That's what I get for reading too quickly--you are absolutely right. I always think the truth lies somewhere between the San Francisco Chronicle, the BBC and The Wall Street Journal. The guys I know who are there or who have been there do not paint a rosy picture at all.