m0tbaillie - stop thinking like a Westerner. They don't give a shit about country, nation-state, or any other way that we define ourselves in the west. They care about:
1. Family
2. Tribe
Once you (and everyone else in the world) starts to realize that, you will realize that yes, we can "win". However, winning can not and should not be based on who the enemy is, but what the strategic goal is. Is the strategic goal a loose collection of tribes that realize that we tried to help them? Perhaps. The problem is if we cut & run before we realize their priorities, then we will have lost without ever knowing what is winning.
Think about it this way - instead of the "United States of America", we should be aiming for the "United Tribes of Iraq".
Forgive me for saying so, but by your logic there exists a huge logic gap/double standard. That is, if we are to approach the situation with a more "basic", more "primative" tribal mentality, if you will, then why and how do we hope to instill a modern, fluid, working democracy in a country whose essential modus operandi for thousands of years has be sheer brute force, tribal conflict, and warlords/militias?
It seems almost as if you've just perfectly pinpointed the reason why we aren't seeing more immediate success in the country: there are highly complex regions and provinces swathed and patched with ethnic, religious, and political strife that is anywhere from decades to hundreds of years old (depending on the debacle-in-question) and here we are trying to stand up a democracy in the country after removing it's long-standing dictator whilst it teeters on the verge of civil war.
Sort of a sticky situation...wouldn't you agree?
BUT, anything is possible. Look at Turkey. It went from a war-torn empire occupied by multiple Western nations during/post-WWI to a full-fledged secular democratic nation about 4~ years (give or take, depending on how you outline events). Anything is possible.
But the difference, the most prevalent difference is that the Turks did them for themselves, there was no occupying force that drove them by force to restructure their country. The Iraqis only have to *want* to impose democracy and put the right people in the right place and, give a few years, it could happen. But I firmly believe that it can be noone bet them who does so, no foreign force is going to make them want to move any faster.
The money helps though.