couple of things
the Israelis are really good at what they do. They are pretty decent at interdicting Iranian shipments to Hezbollah, Gaza etc. See Santorini, Karine-A and a couple of others during this decade. They sometimes get a little help, but are pretty self sufficient. More difficult for them to intercept stuff coming through Damascus, but they hold their own.
The Russian sale of S-300 to Iran can be looked at as a bargaining chip by the Russians. Ever wonder why they haven't been delivered yet? There's been stories for about 10 years that the Iranians are getting it. Not yet, although they (Iran) was apeased in 05 with the shorter range Tor M1. But no S300 PMU yet. My personal take is that the system is nothing but a pawn in the game of chess between US and Russia. With Iran being a sidelined party. The Russians KNOW that introducing this system in Iran is a serious game changer, thus the more important bargaining chip.
As far as the Arctic Sea and missile systems, etal.
The line in the story quoted above and in others about Russian "Mafia" selling S-300 to IRan is laughable. Seriously. Not much happens in Russia without FSB and GRU knowing, thus the Kremlin knowing. Especially regarding such a system, being delivered of all places to Iran.
Arctic Sea supposedly loaded in Kaliningrad. Seriously. That means the missile system would have had to be smuggled 1) out of Russia 2) through Belarus through either 3) Lithuania or 4)Poland to Kaliningrad which is isolated, not part of contiguous Russia. Not very likely.
Especially when you think of the missile system. And think of loading it onto the ship. You have the control system, then the aqcuisition truck radar (Big Bird), then the Illuminator Truck, then a low alt radar truck, then as an option another radar truck. Then the support vehicle(s). THEN, you add the missile TELs. Each carries 4 birds. A system can handle up to 12 TELS. Lets say that they have 4 TELS per battery. Thats a lot of trucks, a lot of BIG trucks. Now think about sneaking all of this through borders, loading it wihtout anyone noticing on a merchant ship. By crane. Arctic Sea not a RORO. Ahhh, Nope.
Also, the RUssians sent a frigate to intercept Arctic Sea and remove contraband. What did they do with it? Not likely they dumped it over the side, unless they wanted to waste 200-400 million (depends on deal).
So highly unlikely when an overland route with much more bribe prone officials available through the Stans.
This system is not like the SCUDS that we intercepted from DPRK to Yemen. Empty of fuel, just shells in the cargo load. Thats would fit nice with lumber. So my humble opinion is that it could have been a lot of things, but definitely not missile systems.
What was it? No idea. We may never know. Can take some guesses, but whatever it was, could have been embarrasing to Putin. So he handled it the way the Russians handle stuff. But reading Wiki and taking it as ground truth is not a viable option. So we speculate as individuals. Those that know, will NOT say what it is on this forum or others. SOme of us will speculate backed by whatever experience we've acquired over the years.
Back to the Israelis, they handle their concerns fairly well. When it suits them they publicize their accomplishments (Santorini)(
http://www.waronline.org/en/analysis/pal_weapons.htm), when it doesn't, they don't (Syria) because they play with the big boys.
By the way, good story in Spiegel re Orchard op in Syria
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,658663,00.html
didn't realize this was this long...ooops
