recommended reading on this subject
I'm not saying I agree with everything he says, but the economist Steven Levitt has an interesting review of crime and gun control in his book "Freakonomics".
Rather than gun control, or "innovative policing", or "broken windows", or efforts by politicians, he argues that the biggest reasons for the drop in crime (esp. in NYC) during the 90's was:
1) Abortion
2) More police on the streets
3) The bursting of the "crack" bubble
Don't jump on me because I said the "A" word. I'm not fluent enough to explain his theories here and I still question them.
Just food for thought, and I'm bastardizing his main logic, but he brings up these issues:
-- GUN CONTROL: too many criminals get their guns illegally on the black market. Tightening restrictions on law abiding citizens will have no effect.
-- ABORTION: Roe v. Wade occurred roughly 20 years before crime started decreasing. He argues that the parents who are more likely to have criminal children are more likely to have abortions, thereby reducing the pool of future criminals. He offers reasons why NYC experienced a greater drop in crime than the rest of the nation.
-- MORE POLICE ON THE STREETS: he argues that more police is the only "policy" that lowers crime. It makes it more "expensive" for criminals to commit crime. The author also believes that increased numbers of police is a function of competitive elections (i.e., Dinkins vs. Giuliani) with both parties competing to increase police. The buildup in NYPD numbers was actually begun under Dinkins, but Guiliani certainly continued it.
-- THE BURSTING OF THE CRACK BUBBLE: the street price of crack cocaine drastically fell during the early 90's (because supply of crack exploded) and shooting people for crack/turf/etc... became a drastically less profitable business.
The author also comments on Open Carry communities and whether it leads to decreases in crime. His conclusion was that it doesn't, but I can't remember the rationale. I think he believed that compared to Abortion/More Police/Crack, all other efforts to curb crime were statistically futile.
Again, I'm not saying he's spot on. But his book is an interesting read and makes you question "conventional wisdom".
And just FYI, I'm a multiple gun owner who supports all sorts of carry as guaranteed by our 2nd Amendment. I just don't believe that criminals are rational actors who respond to right-to-carry laws.