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COVID-19
- Thread starter Treetop Flyer
- Start date
Estimated IFR of 0.15%.
Keep in mind this is the dude who said the following back in March 2020: "One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric. At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making."
Sure is interesting to look back and see what came true or not.
www.lifesitenews.com
www.statnews.com
Keep in mind this is the dude who said the following back in March 2020: "One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long social distancing measures and lockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy, society, and mental health. Unpredictable evolutions may ensue, including financial crisis, unrest, civil strife, war, and a meltdown of the social fabric. At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making."
Sure is interesting to look back and see what came true or not.
New study puts COVID infection fatality rate at only 0.15 percent - LifeSite
The evaluations in the report find their basis in seroprevalence studies, that is detecting the presence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 in the blood serum of a population.
www.lifesitenews.com
A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data
A fiasco in the making? As the #coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data.
www.statnews.com
Speaking of making decisions without reliable data, how about "pausing" J&J based on an extremely rare occurrence rate of blood clots? Who the hell made that risk decision? Fuzzy math follows...
Even with an IFR of 0.15%, it's not hard to see there could be more deaths from folks not getting the vaccine than from the vaccine itself. Rough math shows 1 death every 5 days that could have been prevented by continuing the J&J jabs.
Overall daily infection rate (0.14%) X IFR (0.15%) X 100,000 J&J doses/day (conservative estimate), = about 0.2 deaths per day due to COVID-19 in the group that would be getting J&J shots. One could argue for a higher number, but I'll use this as a "best case" estimate based on publicly available data.
Meanwhile, out of 6.8 million doses administered in the U.S. since February 27, 2021, just six confirmed cases of blood clots (one fatal) for a clot occurrence rate of 1/1,133,333.33 (repeating, of course ? ). Translates to 0.08 clots/day, or 0.014 deaths per day based on a pretty big sample size. That factor could be further reduced by assigning the high-risk demographic (women 18-48) to other vaccines. It's already been pointed out by many people that the J&J clot rate is significantly lower than the rate at which FDA-approved medications such as birth control cause blood clots in the same demographic.
TL;DR version, 0.2 deaths/day due to the J&J "pause" versus 0.014 deaths/day for the same group if J&J had been continued. If COVID-19's IFR is actually greater than 0.15% as some fear-mongers have argued, the risk decision is even more strongly in favor of continuing to administer J&J vaccines. Here's an alternative idea, why not tell people and let them make their own risk decision? Just. Like. Birth. Control.
I'm obviously not an expert, but this is all math using publicly available numbers being reported to John Q. Public. Based on that, our policy makers' aversion to risk seems to actually be inducing more risk. Surprise, surprise.
Even with an IFR of 0.15%, it's not hard to see there could be more deaths from folks not getting the vaccine than from the vaccine itself. Rough math shows 1 death every 5 days that could have been prevented by continuing the J&J jabs.
Overall daily infection rate (0.14%) X IFR (0.15%) X 100,000 J&J doses/day (conservative estimate), = about 0.2 deaths per day due to COVID-19 in the group that would be getting J&J shots. One could argue for a higher number, but I'll use this as a "best case" estimate based on publicly available data.
Meanwhile, out of 6.8 million doses administered in the U.S. since February 27, 2021, just six confirmed cases of blood clots (one fatal) for a clot occurrence rate of 1/1,133,333.33 (repeating, of course ? ). Translates to 0.08 clots/day, or 0.014 deaths per day based on a pretty big sample size. That factor could be further reduced by assigning the high-risk demographic (women 18-48) to other vaccines. It's already been pointed out by many people that the J&J clot rate is significantly lower than the rate at which FDA-approved medications such as birth control cause blood clots in the same demographic.
TL;DR version, 0.2 deaths/day due to the J&J "pause" versus 0.014 deaths/day for the same group if J&J had been continued. If COVID-19's IFR is actually greater than 0.15% as some fear-mongers have argued, the risk decision is even more strongly in favor of continuing to administer J&J vaccines. Here's an alternative idea, why not tell people and let them make their own risk decision? Just. Like. Birth. Control.
I'm obviously not an expert, but this is all math using publicly available numbers being reported to John Q. Public. Based on that, our policy makers' aversion to risk seems to actually be inducing more risk. Surprise, surprise.
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Yet another example of public health incompetence. Just add it to the list.
Cause there is probably more to this than being said... Call me a conspiracy theorist but it doesn't add up. There is more to this than meets the eye!
Conspiracy theorist!
But in all seriousness, I agree. Something is not being said publicly here, and continuing to treat the public like children is continuing to feed conspiracy theories.
Yup, this is Ioannidis almost a year ago to the day...as we pass 566,000 deaths
... Ioannidis said. “If I were to make an informed estimate based on the limited testing data we have, I would say that covid-19 will result in fewer than 40,000 deaths this season in the USA,” he told me.
Because the libtards don't think the American public is smart enough to do that . . .
Serious question/observation - do we really believe that number? I wonder if that number will be adjusted at some point.
In addition to the breakdown of J&J numbers, pretty sure blood clots =\= death for those 6 women...
He also was basing it off of a small sample size from the Diamond Princess. If you’re mobile enough to go up and down ladders on a cruise ship and healthy enough to travel internationally, you’re probably not the obese and compromised demographic at the highest risk. That being said, he also said this, in that exact same article:
“Some worry that the 68 deaths from Covid-19 in the U.S. as of March 16 will increase exponentially to 680, 6,800, 68,000, 680,000 … along with similar catastrophic patterns around the globe. Is that a realistic scenario, or bad science fiction? How can we tell at what point such a curve might stop?
The most valuable piece of information for answering those questions would be to know the current prevalence of the infection in a random sample of a population and to repeat this exercise at regular time intervals to estimate the incidence of new infections. Sadly, that’s information we don’t have.”
So explain to us again about how Michigan is doing so well with their mask mandate? And Canada too...oh and let’s not forget Germany, despite their medical grade mask mandate. And Japan. Olympics are still in jeopardy.
Tokyo Olympics could still be canceled, top Japanese official says
With 100 days to go before the Tokyo Olympics, Japan lags behind in vaccinations.
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Yes, on the one cruise ship I've been on, I do remember a lot of spry octogenarians (big into Crossfit) expertly climbing ladders. It was also cool watching them disembark at each port call via the cargo nets. ?
It seems like your argument is we can't be perfect so we should just not do anything. Masks allow us to spend risk elsewhere. They reduce the transmission risk so we can go out and do the things that we want.
And yeah, all of those people who pull their mask down should be shamed. They are defeating the entire purpose. We should not just shrug and say because some people aren't doing their part, no one should.
Staying away from people and staying home when sick is great advice. We have been doing that and more over the past year and yet we are still dealing with this virus.
My point is that wearing masks doesn’t do shit except make you look like a fool. That and probably harm children. Fortunately I live in a sane state and don’t have to worry about wearing masks or people that think they should “shame” someone over them.
I'm in Cheyenne, WY for work and just about everyone is fed the fuck up with the mask nonsense. Except, Starbucks, they routinely shame everyone who walks in without a mask (corporate policy, regardless of state). Bars, restaurants, just about everyplace is mask-free. Refreshing . . .