COVID-19

[DanMa1156]

I fully expect big Navy to take an idiotic path, but that has little to do with science or sound policy.

While I don't disagree with you, my point was I do not think many countries are about to fling open their doors to port calls anytime either. We have some countries in theater here that are even limiting PCS entries. The idea of broaching a port call with them is laughable... and these are countries that host our forces.

 

[SlickAg]

Since we're talking anecdotes...

Based on my friends' instagram stories, I'd say the CA lockdown has had almost no effects on their lifestyle or ability to transmit the virus. Instead of partying at bars, it's house parties. Instead of dancing at clubs, it's Tinder hookups since everyone is bored. Seeing as they are all AD in squadrons or ships they still report to work, albeit, in a mask.

I have a hard time thinking they are following the intent of the rules in CA, and by no means does their lifestyle on social media seem to purport that they are concerned about not spreading the virus. So, sure, California may be in a lockdown, but are its residents? My civilian friends are traveling freely to and from Mexico to party and visit vineyards. Sure, their favorite brunch spot is closed now... but what's really changed in terms of their ability to catch/transmit the virus?

First, I replied but I’ll piggyback on @exNavyOffRec ’s post above, it really is super common from everywhere I’ve seen personally, and from what my mom has told me where she lives.

I understand where you’re coming from on this post, but published newspaper stories about how bad the virus is in California are, in my opinion, more than anecdotes. Check out the article from the LA Times I posted in a later response.

As to your main point, why would a group of people who are at little to no risk subject themselves to what amounts to house arrest? Same thing with the college kids playing beer pong in their driveways that taxi1 described earlier. It might work for a few weeks early on, but this has been dragging on for months. Your friends are more likely to die in a car crash driving to brunch than from covid. I think they’re simply accepting the risk and deciding to live their lives, as is their Constitutional right in America.

When, in your lifetime, have you been told, as a healthy person, to lock yourself in your house and not see anyone? The messaging on covid has been bad from the beginning, and people are getting tired of it. Ultimately it isn’t the government’s job to make risk decisions for you and your family. It’s YOUR job to do what you think is best for you and yours. We’re witnessing what could be viewed as one of the biggest government overreaches in history. What remains to be seen is whether this is an aberration or will become the new normal. I’m worried it’s more the latter than the former.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

While I don't disagree with you, my point was I do not think many countries are about to fling open their doors to port calls anytime either. We have some countries in theater here that are even limiting PCS entries. The idea of broaching a port call with them is laughable... and these are countries that host our forces.

And most of those countries are thrilled to “host” our forces. This will end, and we will keep get getting “hosted” by countries that want us.

 

[exNavyOffRec]

Gotcha. At my church back in Pensacola, it's masks optional, and the video feeds appear to show maybe 50% participation in mask wearing... maybe. The majority of my family is in the Northeast and my immediate family takes it seriously although I've anecdotally heard parts of my extended family aren't in the sense they follow the rules but only when asked/confronted about them.

I have family in Mass and they keep saying how great it has been handled there, now I don't know first hand how it has been handled but I was looking at the stats while talking to my mom and Mass is #3 in deaths/mil and but #37 in cases/mil so it makes me wonder how the media there is spinning it, "hey in Mass you have a low chance of infection, but if you get it good chance you will die"

 

[SlickAg]

Thanks for the reply. I really have no idea. The media makes it seem like mask wearing is geographically correlated. Your life sounds like ours on base in Japan for the most part, with the dependa crowd and the "ultra-MAGA" (I know I'm stereotyping) crowd trying to get away without mask wearing or wearing it under their noses wherever possible.

I wouldn’t call it the ultra-MAGA crowd where I’m at, pretty much everybody can’t wait to get into an office or room to take their mask off because people generally seem to find them annoying and harbor doubts that an ill-fitting cloth mask is doing much good anyway other than providing visual proof of compliance with the page 13 they had to sign.

As for dependents, I don’t care what they do. They’re under no legal obligation UCMJ-wise to wear a mask, so however they want to play along with the local or state rules is no skin off my back.

 

[DanMa1156]

First, I replied but I’ll piggyback on @exNavyOffRec’s post above, it really is super common from everywhere I’ve seen personally, and what my mom has told me where she lives.

I understand where you’re coming from on this post, but published newspaper stories about how bad the virus is in California are, in my opinion, more than anecdotes. Check out the article from the LA Times I posted in a later response.

As to your main point, why would a group of people who are at little to no risk subject themselves to what amounts to house arrest? Same thing with the college kids playing beer pong in their driveways that taxi1 described earlier. It might work for a few weeks early on, but this has been dragging on for months. Your friends are more likely to die in a car crash driving to brunch than from covid. I think they’re simply accepting the risk and deciding to live their lives, as is their Constitutional right in America.

When, in your lifetime, have you been told, as a healthy person, to lock yourself in your house and not see anyone? The messaging on covid has been bad from the beginning, and people are getting tired of it. Ultimately it isn’t the government’s job to make risk decisions for you and your family. It’s YOUR job to do what you think is best for you and yours. We’re witnessing what could be viewed as one of the biggest government overreaches in history. What remains to be seen is whether this is an aberration or will become the new normal. I’m worried it’s more the latter than the former.

I'm not disagreeing or agreeing with you on whether it is sound policy; I am disagreeing with your assessment of how effective the "lockdowns" are in California. Sure, some businesses are closed or limited in operation, but has that stopped the spread? The data seems to suggest it has not. Whether that's correlated remains to be seen; and whether people are following mandates is something that seems sporadic. Again, anecdotally, I know my brother hasn't visited my nearby parents since March due to fear of giving them the virus as high risk candidates (older, a little overweight, former heavy smokers). On the other hand, my cousins, including one cousin-in-law who works in the COVID ward of her hospital in NY, spent Christmas with their family including their elderly and frail grandmother and you can be damn sure they didn't wear masks. Again: they are following the NY lockdowns in the sense they aren't going out to bars, but did they just possibly infect several people?

As far as the lockdowns being sound policy, I don't know. I know I've fought the base on the ones here through a variety of measures: town hall questions, FOIAs, and congressional letters. In my opinion, our base hasn't based most of its myriad of ever changing lockdowns on anything other than an anecdotal "oh it must have been from that!" or as punitive measures for people breaking the lockdown. For a significant period of time, we were specifically not allowed to dine in restaurants, but were allowed to go to public baths and onsens (think hot tubs full of naked people in close contact with each other in a very hot and humid sauna like room). Also, because of how geographically spread out the base population is, I think our lockdowns affect a good portion of the population much worse than others. We're still allowed to dine in on base because the base claims they can control COVID mitigations, but other than a hand sanitizer station and every other seat blocked off, there's none of the other measures that the Japanese restaurants all do: heavy cleaning before and after a guest arrives, plexiglass between guests, and, in many cases, automated food service.

I'd be willing to support the base's policy decisions a lot more if they were:
a) consistently applied
b) affected the base population evenly as possible
c) appeared grounded in science
d) did not have the appearance of being punitive, as I believe that those prone to break the rules continue to break them as the lockdowns have gotten more extreme
e) enforced and I had evidence that families and members were actually losing SOFA status or otherwise facing punitive action
f) based on a rate, or ICU availability, or some sort of metric instead of what appears to be the base CO's "gut feeling" each week.

I don't necessarily blame my friends, but the feeling isn't the same over here for what I have to assume are a few reasons:

1. Our spouses / dependents are also regulated by the base because they can take away their SOFA status and now I'm a geobach living on the ship;
2. Seeing the local population take it very seriously has made people here take it seriously;
3. It doesn't feel inevitable that we will catch the virus given the low number of cases here.
4. We are constantly deploying, so getting sick will ultimately let down a good number of our friends as they'll have to cover for us.

I do not think the base CO or (most) politicians are really all about just having a power trip trying to ruin peoples' lives or livelihoods; and I think most of them have the right intent - to stop or slow the spread of the virus - but I think early on I and many others were willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, but as we go on and learn more about it, different, more sane measures must be put in place. I think the difference is there are some leaders who think people will follow those rules and are willing to enforce them with effect, while others are unwilling to enforce them and keep shifting the goalposts knowing there will be some people who break rules but only a little bit, but the more extreme you make the rules, if someone crosses the line, they are in acceptable territory still. Of course, in either case, there are people who will break whatever rules you put in place and go well beyond them... like, we are regulated on group sizes. It used to be 10, but now its 5. I know they broke up some parties... now there will certainly be some people who push 6-7 people into a group, but that's probably still acceptable, and they know most won't go beyond 10 anymore. I don't know if I'm explaining this well.

 

[DanMa1156]

I wouldn’t call it the ultra-MAGA crowd where I’m at, pretty much everybody can’t wait to get into an office or room to take their mask off because people generally seem to find them annoying and harbor doubts that an ill-fitting cloth mask is doing much good anyway other than providing visual proof of compliance with the page 13 they had to sign.

As for dependents, I don’t care what they do. They’re under no legal obligation UCMJ-wise to wear a mask, so however they want to play along with the local or state rules is no skin off my back.

Here, the dependents are regulated when a Public Health Emergency is called. We continue to be in that phase, so they face similar punishments, up to losing SOFA status and losing their ability to remain in country.

Also, here, in offices and on ships, people still wear masks with limited exceptions.

 

[DanMa1156]

And most of those countries are thrilled to “host” our forces. This will end, and we will keep get getting “hosted” by countries that want us.

I agree, however, I maintain my point that between the Navy's decisions and those of other countries, we aren't getting port calls like we used to for several more years at least.

 

[Spekkio]

And most of those countries are thrilled to “host” our forces. This will end, and we will keep get getting “hosted” by countries that want us.

The strategic value of being hosted is logistics for forward deployed units. If we continue to get that at the cost of liberty off the pier, then I don't think there's going to be a lot of push back at the O-7 and above / elected politician level.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

I agree, however, I maintain my point that between the Navy's decisions and those of other countries, we aren't getting port calls like we used to for several more years at least.

“Several more years” based on what? That’s fucking ridiculous. I rescheduled my Europe honeymoon trip from October 2020 to October 2021, and I’ll be very surprised if that doesn’t happen. Several years for port calls is absurd, but I guess I should expect the absurd from the military.

 

[SlickAg]

I'm not disagreeing or agreeing with you on whether it is sound policy; I am disagreeing with your assessment of how effective the "lockdowns" are in California. Sure, some businesses are closed or limited in operation, but has that stopped the spread? The data seems to suggest it has not. Whether that's correlated remains to be seen; and whether people are following mandates is something that seems sporadic. Again, anecdotally, I know my brother hasn't visited my nearby parents since March due to fear of giving them the virus as high risk candidates (older, a little overweight, former heavy smokers). On the other hand, my cousins, including one cousin-in-law who works in the COVID ward of her hospital in NY, spent Christmas with their family including their elderly and frail grandmother and you can be damn sure they didn't wear masks. Again: they are following the NY lockdowns in the sense they aren't going out to bars, but did they just possibly infect several people?

As far as the lockdowns being sound policy, I don't know. I know I've fought the base on the ones here through a variety of measures: town hall questions, FOIAs, and congressional letters. In my opinion, our base hasn't based most of its myriad of ever changing lockdowns on anything other than an anecdotal "oh it must have been from that!" or as punitive measures for people breaking the lockdown. For a significant period of time, we were specifically not allowed to dine in restaurants, but were allowed to go to public baths and onsens (think hot tubs full of naked people in close contact with each other in a very hot and humid sauna like room). Also, because of how geographically spread out the base population is, I think our lockdowns affect a good portion of the population much worse than others. We're still allowed to dine in on base because the base claims they can control COVID mitigations, but other than a hand sanitizer station and every other seat blocked off, there's none of the other measures that the Japanese restaurants all do: heavy cleaning before and after a guest arrives, plexiglass between guests, and, in many cases, automated food service.

I'd be willing to support the base's policy decisions a lot more if they were:
a) consistently applied
b) affected the base population evenly as possible
c) appeared grounded in science
d) did not have the appearance of being punitive, as I believe that those prone to break the rules continue to break them as the lockdowns have gotten more extreme
e) enforced and I had evidence that families and members were actually losing SOFA status or otherwise facing punitive action
f) based on a rate, or ICU availability, or some sort of metric instead of what appears to be the base CO's "gut feeling" each week.

I don't necessarily blame my friends, but the feeling isn't the same over here for what I have to assume are a few reasons:

1. Our spouses / dependents are also regulated by the base because they can take away their SOFA status and now I'm a geobach living on the ship;
2. Seeing the local population take it very seriously has made people here take it seriously;
3. It doesn't feel inevitable that we will catch the virus given the low number of cases here.
4. We are constantly deploying, so getting sick will ultimately let down a good number of our friends as they'll have to cover for us.

I do not think the base CO or (most) politicians are really all about just having a power trip trying to ruin peoples' lives or livelihoods; and I think most of them have the right intent - to stop or slow the spread of the virus - but I think early on I and many others were willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, but as we go on and learn more about it, different, more sane measures must be put in place. I think the difference is there are some leaders who think people will follow those rules and are willing to enforce them with effect, while others are unwilling to enforce them and keep shifting the goalposts knowing there will be some people who break rules but only a little bit, but the more extreme you make the rules, if someone crosses the line, they are in acceptable territory still. Of course, in either case, there are people who will break whatever rules you put in place and go well beyond them... like, we are regulated on group sizes. It used to be 10, but now its 5. I know they broke up some parties... now there will certainly be some people who push 6-7 people into a group, but that's probably still acceptable, and they know most won't go beyond 10 anymore. I don't know if I'm explaining this well.

Man, that’s a lot of stuff to unpack.

If I told my kids they could have all the candy they wanted after their dental appointment but they couldn’t eat any in the two weeks leading up to it, and then I kept constantly sliding their appointments further to the right and telling them it was “only two more weeks away”, how long would it be before they caught on and I lost my credibility?

Of COURSE the lockdowns haven’t stopped the spread because they’re not effective! There’s caveats and different rules about what’s essential and who can still go shopping and strip clubs are open but churches aren’t. I mean maybe if it was a no-kidding honest to God lockdown, but it was foolish to think lockdowns as they are now were going to do anything significant in the first place. But you don’t have to take my word for it, you can take Dr. Anthony Fauci’s instead. And he said it back in January. The experts agreed to it because the politicians said “we must do SOMETHING!”



As far as the Navy stuff overseas, of course it’s going to be awful - it’s the Navy. Remember a few short months ago when you were planning your exit? All the reasons that made you want to leave to begin with are still there, and now covid has probably made it even worse. Now you have a good job and paycheck but the Navy keeps getting their pound of flesh. If it makes you feel better, none of the decisions over here are rooted in science either. For example, if I were to go on leave I’d have a five day ROM requirement. However, the base is operating under a 14 day ROM requirement. So I can go to work, I’m just not supposed to use any of the base facilities like the gym or the Subway until I’ve been back at work for an additional nine days. Why? Because the two O-6s have different views and risk tolerances. And that’s their prerogative, but it sure doesn’t make the most sense.

 

[SlickAg]

I agree, however, I maintain my point that between the Navy's decisions and those of other countries, we aren't getting port calls like we used to for several more years at least.

Port calls?

Shoot, I’m curious to see when the temperature checks and mask-wearing stops.

I honestly don’t think it’s going to, because no CO is willing to let something that “could’ve been prevented” happen on their watch. So they’ll keep pushing for it and all of the heavies will be in aggressive agreement that it’s a small sacrifice to make for the “health of the force”. I can see it now: “these command screen boards certainly are picking the best and the brightest; this CO under me is trying to lower the temperature required to come to work by .2 degrees! It’s brilliant! Not only does it make it look like we’re doing something to combat the spread of Covid-22, but it’s so negligible that it won’t have a real impact on readiness! Sure his retention numbers aren’t very good, but by Jove does he have what it TAKES! Reminds me of a young me...”

 

[SlickAg]

Here, the dependents are regulated when a Public Health Emergency is called. We continue to be in that phase, so they face similar punishments, up to losing SOFA status and losing their ability to remain in country.

Also, here, in offices and on ships, people still wear masks with limited exceptions.

Straight up, it sounds awful over there. I have a feeling that overseas tours, especially Japan, are about to be viewed as very undesirable. Does the Air Force have the same restrictions over there? Because different services have much different rules over here. Surprising no one, the Navy’s rules seem to be much more draconian than those of other branches.

People wear masks in the hallways of the hangar, but in their office and workspace they are generally able to maintain six feet of separation of individuals and remain in contact for less than fifteen minutes, thus making them no longer required.

 

[DanMa1156]

Straight up, it sounds awful over there. I have a feeling that overseas tours, especially Japan, are about to be viewed as very undesirable. Does the Air Force have the same restrictions over there? Because different services have much different rules over here. Surprising no one, the Navy’s rules seem to be much more draconian than those of other branches.

People wear masks in the hallways of the hangar, but in their office and workspace they are generally able to maintain six feet of separation of individuals and remain in contact for less than fifteen minutes, thus making them no longer required.

Yeah, in offices here as long as you are separated by 6 feet you can keep your mask off at your own desk only. Some offices enforce it more strictly than others. Shipboard ECP onward except your own desk, when separated by people or eating, you're in a mask.

I don't disagree with you that attracting people to overseas tours has gotten more difficult.

 

[DanMa1156]

“Several more years” based on what? That’s fucking ridiculous. I rescheduled my Europe honeymoon trip from October 2020 to October 2021, and I’ll be very surprised if that doesn’t happen. Several years for port calls is absurd, but I guess I should expect the absurd from the military.

TR left heavy scars on the mindet of the 3-4 Star crowd as far as I can tell. CNO talks a big game about our guys not getting port calls causing morale issues, but has anyone in the fleet seen anything come of it? SDOBs keep making deployments longer and longer and yet there's no hope of port calls in sight. What incentive does a COCOM have to ensure they do? They lose a CSG or ARG or ESG or BMD ship for a few days anytime they get a port call, so they could care less I'm sure. The Navy doesn't want to take any risk. Countries don't want Americans in them. I just can't see a port call that's not a Beer n the Pier or similar for several years... We won't have 100% participation in the immunization and won't be able to force it for many more years; we don't know how long the protection lasts; and, we don't know how well it protects against future infections. There's no way with all those unknowns anyone is seriously pushing for port calls to resume.

Also, THIS:

Port calls?

Shoot, I’m curious to see when the temperature checks and mask-wearing stops.

I honestly don’t think it’s going to, because no CO is willing to let something that “could’ve been prevented” happen on their watch. So they’ll keep pushing for it and all of the heavies will be in aggressive agreement that it’s a small sacrifice to make for the “health of the force”. I can see it now: “these command screen boards certainly are picking the best and the brightest; this CO under me is trying to lower the temperature required to come to work by .2 degrees! It’s brilliant! Not only does it make it look like we’re doing something to combat the spread of Covid-22, but it’s so negligible that it won’t have a real impact on readiness! Sure his retention numbers aren’t very good, but by Jove does he have what it TAKES! Reminds me of a young me...”

What cracks me up is I've started to see my temperature. It's been consistently about 92.0 on our ship's thermometer (the type where they point it at your head). I ask the HM "shouldn't I stay home then? Doesn't that mean I'm extremely sick? I'm extremely hypothermic right now by that reading, no?"
"No sir, it has to be over 100.4 to be considered a risk."
"But assuming my temperature is actually 98.6, doesn't that mean someone's temp would have to be like 104+ in order to register above that on your reader there?"
"Sir, I'm just doing my job."