COVID-19

[taxi1]

@taxi1 if I'm reading what you said correctly, you're saying masks work for the sick "cloth ones keep the viral plumes closer to you...they direct it onto your eyeglasses". I think the crap face covering wouldn't work either way, inward or outward.

No, the empirical evidence points to masks, even just cloth ones, making a big difference. The science is irrefutable (that's for @SlickAg).

Note: you still have to social distance. It's not a replacement. It's a complementary thing.

The argument has only gotten better since this summary.

Archive: Still Confused About Masks? Here’s the Science Behind How Face Masks Prevent Coronavirus

We talked to UCSF epidemiologist George Rutherford, MD, and infectious disease specialist Peter Chin-Hong, MD, about the CDC’s reversal on mask-wearing, the current science on how masks work, and what to consider when choosing a mask.

www.ucsf.edu

 

[Spekkio]

Australia (for example) used masking and lockdowns. They shut down until it was miniscule, and now people are out and about maskless and shopping and getting on with their lives. Living freely. If it pops up, they contract trace the shit out of it (easy to do since it is ones and twos) and kill it before it grows.

It's the difference between going all-in and half-assing it. This is a winner's plot.

It's the difference between being an island nation that is less than 1/10th the population of the US.

 

[SlickAg]

No, the empirical evidence points to masks, even just cloth ones, making a big difference. The science is irrefutable (that's for @SlickAg).

Note: you still have to social distance. It's not a replacement. It's a complementary thing.

The argument has only gotten better since this summary.

Archive: Still Confused About Masks? Here’s the Science Behind How Face Masks Prevent Coronavirus

We talked to UCSF epidemiologist George Rutherford, MD, and infectious disease specialist Peter Chin-Hong, MD, about the CDC’s reversal on mask-wearing, the current science on how masks work, and what to consider when choosing a mask.

www.ucsf.edu

I too have irrefutable evidence, real-world evidence mind you, not just theoretical, of how great masks work...it’s called California! And you bet they social distanced along with it, they shut down schools, restaurants, amusement parks- you name it, and they shut it down! Masks and mandatory social distancing are real miracle workers in a large-scale, non-laboratory, uncontrolled setting!

You were saying? If the argument has only gotten better with time, find me a research paper refuting the findings of the Danish RCT study.

“The recommendation to wear surgical masks to supplement other public health measures did not reduce the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate among wearers by more than 50% in a community with modest infection rates, some degree of social distancing, and uncommon general mask use. The data were compatible with lesser degrees of self-protection.”

ACP Journals

 

[BigRed389]

Australia (for example) used masking and lockdowns. They shut down until it was miniscule, and now people are out and about maskless and shopping and getting on with their lives. Living freely. If it pops up, they contract trace the shit out of it (easy to do since it is ones and twos) and kill it before it grows.

It's the difference between going all-in and half-assing it. This is a winner's plot.

View attachment 28651


Once they had internal community spread, they were on an even playing field with the rest of us.

And now we have a vaccine.

So as long as they keep it down until folks get the shot, it won't get to run its course.

For starters, I’m not defending our response as optimal either. Having said that, when you say “lockdown”, Australia had much less community transmission to deal with. They didn’t get nearly as much spread before they went into lockdown which was pretty much on par with everything I read about back home (essential business only, stay at home). So it only took a little over a month for community transmission nationwide to drop to near zero.

That said, in Sydney (which is really one of their only 2 major mega cities on par with ours) masks weren’t actually mandatory. I was routinely out and about during the lockdown (had valid work reasons) and even then it was 50/50 whether or not people were wearing masks. Masks only became mandatory for general use in Melbourne when they had an outbreak get out of hand and they went into full lockdown, and masks were a way to mitigate letting people get out a bit.

The real biggest thing I saw they did different was travel restrictions. Interstate travel was shut down, smaller states (by population) closed their borders, which is a lot easier to do when you federalize that response (military and Feds at roads and airports) and travel options are limited to air travel and a few key roads.

But the biggest thing was international travel. Australia shut international travel down hard. You couldn’t fly in without explicit federal government approval which was limited to how many hotel rooms converted for COVID quarantine were open. Quarantine is a no shit police enforced quarantine (house arrest in a hotel really). To get any of our folks in, we needed their CNO to sign a letter to their Immigration folks requesting individuals be allowed in. The consequence of this though is that there are still a lot of Aussies overseas who are stranded waiting to get back home. That said the payoff has been that international travelers have been the main driver of their COVID cases - not community transmission.

Just food for thought from a different perspective.

 

[SlickAg]

Mask-wearing has been hovering around 85-90% since this summer. (Articles citing this below)

Redirect Notice

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.

www.webmd.com

“Models show that if 80 percent of people wear masks that are 60 percent effective, easily achievable with cloth, we can get to an effective R0 of less than one.”

The Real Reason to Wear a Mask

Much of the confusion around masks stems from the conflation of two very different uses.

www.theatlantic.com

If this modeling is correct, and the percentage of people wearing masks in California is at least at the nation’s average (which I feel comfortable assuming), how do you explain this @taxi1?

California now has the worst COVID-19 spread in US

California is posting the country's worst COVID-19 numbers despite a new stay-at-home...

www.sfgate.com

 

[Peekskill1941]

I’ll stay up nights worrying about the damage done to America’s reputation as a clean, hygienic society. I guess all of Western Europe took a big rep hit too.

Not trying to be mean, but I recognize this is easy to say as someone who won't have to worry about deploying with a PDS and no port calls, I assume ever again.

 

[Peekskill1941]

Ah the old expectations management. I think we're a good bit away before the institutional memory fades regarding what it was like to have liberty in foreign ports. Until that does, sailors are going to have some kind of hope that the restrictions will be lifted at any moment.

Yeah, that's my point. But they won't, and I think institutionally, morale will suffer because while Sailors will hold out hope for them, I think we are years away from it becoming a thing again beyond Beer on the Pier. Just the number of people on my base who believe they will be able to have no liberty restrictions and go maskless once they get the vaccine is astounding; in reality, there is no plan to change any liberty or mask policies for anyone anytime soon regardless of vaccination status.

 

[Peekskill1941]

Mask-wearing has been hovering around 85-90% since this summer. (Articles citing this below)

Redirect Notice

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.

www.webmd.com

“Models show that if 80 percent of people wear masks that are 60 percent effective, easily achievable with cloth, we can get to an effective R0 of less than one.”

The Real Reason to Wear a Mask

Much of the confusion around masks stems from the conflation of two very different uses.

www.theatlantic.com

If this modeling is correct, and the percentage of people wearing masks in California is at least at the nation’s average (which I feel comfortable assuming), how do you explain this @taxi1?

California now has the worst COVID-19 spread in US

California is posting the country's worst COVID-19 numbers despite a new stay-at-home...

www.sfgate.com

Serious question since I am in Japan and don't see ordinary life in the States, but in your and everyone else's experience on the forums here matching this data? I'd be willing to say in Japan those numbers hold - it remains an uncommon sight to see someone maskless nowadays outside of their own home, but I'd be shocked if these numbers were actually true in the U.S. I know for sure that at least one side of my family feels like it's a crock of bull and they find opportunities or excuses to go maskless it seems like. My perception is that matches the news.

 

[Peekskill1941]

I too have irrefutable evidence, real-world evidence mind you, not just theoretical, of how great masks work...it’s called California! And you bet they social distanced along with it, they shut down schools, restaurants, amusement parks- you name it, and they shut it down! Masks and mandatory social distancing are real miracle workers in a large-scale, non-laboratory, uncontrolled setting!

You were saying? If the argument has only gotten better with time, find me a research paper refuting the findings of the Danish RCT study.

“The recommendation to wear surgical masks to supplement other public health measures did not reduce the SARS-CoV-2 infection rate among wearers by more than 50% in a community with modest infection rates, some degree of social distancing, and uncommon general mask use. The data were compatible with lesser degrees of self-protection.”

ACP Journals

Since we're talking anecdotes...

Based on my friends' instagram stories, I'd say the CA lockdown has had almost no effects on their lifestyle or ability to transmit the virus. Instead of partying at bars, it's house parties. Instead of dancing at clubs, it's Tinder hookups since everyone is bored. Seeing as they are all AD in squadrons or ships they still report to work, albeit, in a mask.

I have a hard time thinking they are following the intent of the rules in CA, and by no means does their lifestyle on social media seem to purport that they are concerned about not spreading the virus. So, sure, California may be in a lockdown, but are its residents? My civilian friends are traveling freely to and from Mexico to party and visit vineyards. Sure, their favorite brunch spot is closed now... but what's really changed in terms of their ability to catch/transmit the virus?

 

[SlickAg]

Serious question since I am in Japan and don't see ordinary life in the States, but in your and everyone else's experience on the forums here matching this data? I'd be willing to say in Japan those numbers hold - it remains an uncommon sight to see someone maskless nowadays outside of their own home, but I'd be shocked if these numbers were actually true in the U.S. I know for sure that at least one side of my family feels like it's a crock of bull and they find opportunities or excuses to go maskless it seems like. My perception is that matches the news.

Yes.

Everyone I see inside a store is wearing a mask with the possible exception of small children. If you don’t have one on you can’t go in. I’d say 75% of the people wear their masks the whole way from their car to the store. Same for gas stations. I’m not currently going to restaurants because I’m not allowed, but when I could, it’s the same story.

My children have to wear a mask at school from the moment they get out of the car from the moment they get back in at the end of the day. They are not allowed to take it off even when they’re outside at recess. They are 5 and 7. If they get ANY symptom of basically any illness, to include a “new or unexplained headache”, diarrhea, or a runny nose, they are supposed to not come back to school until 10 days after the symptoms first appeared.

Walking and exercising outside? Very few people I see out walking their dog, running, or just on a walk are wearing masks. I live in a spread out suburban area so there’s never a chance of not being able to keep distance.

 

[exNavyOffRec]

Since we're talking anecdotes...

Based on my friends' instagram stories, I'd say the CA lockdown has had almost no effects on their lifestyle or ability to transmit the virus. Instead of partying at bars, it's house parties. Instead of dancing at clubs, it's Tinder hookups since everyone is bored. Seeing as they are all AD in squadrons or ships they still report to work, albeit, in a mask.

I have a hard time thinking they are following the intent of the rules in CA, and by no means does their lifestyle on social media seem to purport that they are concerned about not spreading the virus. So, sure, California may be in a lockdown, but are its residents? My civilian friends are traveling freely to and from Mexico to party and visit vineyards. Sure, their favorite brunch spot is closed now... but what's really changed in terms of their ability to catch/transmit the virus?

It is rare to see people without a mask where I live, and I did some traveling several weeks ago to a much more conservative area and mask were being worn there too, stores had people counting people coming in, they were limiting people in stores, etc.... many of my very conservative friends think it is all crap but they do it in hopes that it will end and they can get back to a semi normal life, I kind of feel that way myself.

 

[exNavyOffRec]

My children have to wear a mask at school from the moment they get out of the car from the moment they get back in at the end of the day. They are not allowed to take it off even when they’re outside at recess. They are 5 and 7. If they get ANY symptom of basically any illness, to include a “new or unexplained headache”, diarrhea, or a runny nose, they are supposed to not come back to school until 10 days after the symptoms first appeared.

some of the guidelines at the district near me (could be state guidelines) for those kids that can go to school are indeed restrictive, cough - stay home, sneezing - stay home, wake up with headache - stay home, there are others and those others do make sense.

 

[Peekskill1941]

It is rare to see people without a mask where I live, and I did some traveling several weeks ago to a much more conservative area and mask were being worn there too, stores had people counting people coming in, they were limiting people in stores, etc.... many of my very conservative friends think it is all crap but they do it in hopes that it will end and they can get back to a semi normal life, I kind of feel that way myself.

Gotcha. At my church back in Pensacola, it's masks optional, and the video feeds appear to show maybe 50% participation in mask wearing... maybe. The majority of my family is in the Northeast and my immediate family takes it seriously although I've anecdotally heard parts of my extended family aren't in the sense they follow the rules but only when asked/confronted about them.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

Not trying to be mean, but I recognize this is easy to say as someone who won't have to worry about deploying with a PDS and no port calls, I assume ever again.

I fully expect big Navy to take an idiotic path, but that has little to do with science or sound policy.

 

[Peekskill1941]

Yes.

Everyone I see inside a store is wearing a mask with the possible exception of small children. If you don’t have one on you can’t go in. I’d say 75% of the people wear their masks the whole way from their car to the store. Same for gas stations. I’m not currently going to restaurants because I’m not allowed, but when I could, it’s the same story.

My children have to wear a mask at school from the moment they get out of the car from the moment they get back in at the end of the day. They are not allowed to take it off even when they’re outside at recess. They are 5 and 7. If they get ANY symptom of basically any illness, to include a “new or unexplained headache”, diarrhea, or a runny nose, they are supposed to not come back to school until 10 days after the symptoms first appeared.

Walking and exercising outside? Very few people I see out walking their dog, running, or just on a walk are wearing masks. I live in a spread out suburban area so there’s never a chance of not being able to keep distance.

Thanks for the reply. I really have no idea. The media makes it seem like mask wearing is geographically correlated. Your life sounds like ours on base in Japan for the most part, with the dependa crowd and the "ultra-MAGA" (I know I'm stereotyping) crowd trying to get away without mask wearing or wearing it under their noses wherever possible.