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COVID-19

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
These are a couple of the quotes that really stand out to me from this piece:

“One has to wonder, how did this come about? Why weren’t we behaving this way before, when seasonal influenza is known to kill up to 650,000 people globally every single year? Why didn’t anyone ever care about saving all of those millions of people? If we really can stop infections, we murdered all of them!“

“Prior to tricking us with his [Neil Ferguson] unreviewed COVID paper in March 2020, he made several other very entertaining predictions:
  • 2001: predicted 150,000 deaths from foot-and-mouth disease, resulting in the mass culling of eleven million sheep and cattle. Reality: fewer than 200 deaths.
  • 2002: predicted 50,000 people would die from exposure to BSE (mad cow disease) in beef. Reality: 177 deaths.
  • 2005: predicted 150 million deaths from bird flu. Reality: 282 people died worldwide over a period of six years.
  • 2009: predicted swine flu would kill 65,000 Britons. Reality: 457 deaths in the U.K.”
 

taxi1

Well-Known Member
pilot
These are a couple of the quotes that really stand out to me from this piece:
Reading the source document that she quotes from, these are a couple of quotes that really stand out to me from the piece (my emphasis):
  • The pandemic mitigation framework that is proposed is based upon an early, targeted,layered application of multiple partially effective nonpharmaceutical measures. It is recommended that the measures be initiated early before explosive growth of the epidemic and, in the case of severe pandemics, that they be maintained consistently during an epidemic wave in a community.
  • The use of NPIs for mitigating a community-wide epidemic has three major goals:
    • delay the exponential growth in incident cases and shift the epidemic curve to the right in order to “buy time” for production and a well-matched pandemic strain vaccine,
    • decrease the epidemic peak, and
    • reduce the total number of incident cases, thus reducing community morbidity and mortality.
  • Ultimately, reducing the number of persons infected is a primary goal of pandemic planning.
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
Reading the source document that she quotes from, these are a couple of quotes that really stand out to me from the piece (my emphasis):
  • The pandemic mitigation framework that is proposed is based upon an early, targeted,layered application of multiple partially effective nonpharmaceutical measures. It is recommended that the measures be initiated early before explosive growth of the epidemic and, in the case of severe pandemics, that they be maintained consistently during an epidemic wave in a community.
  • The use of NPIs for mitigating a community-wide epidemic has three major goals:
    • delay the exponential growth in incident cases and shift the epidemic curve to the right in order to “buy time” for production and a well-matched pandemic strain vaccine,
    • decrease the epidemic peak, and
    • reduce the total number of incident cases, thus reducing community morbidity and mortality.
  • Ultimately, reducing the number of persons infected is a primary goal of pandemic planning.
Oh I’m familiar, I actually posted that link on Sunday along with some screenshots.

In case you need a refresher, I’ll repost it below. Interesting that the NPIs they recommend for this level of pandemic don’t include shutting down schools for more than 4 weeks OR mandatory quarantines.

So you agree that quarantines should be voluntary and we open all schools back up to in-person education since they’ve been closed for 6 months now?

Pretty fascinating read. Of note, I think they say CFR but the math they use would make one think it’s more like IFR, but the mitigation factors for Cat 2 and 3 are basically the same. Although the virus was considered “novel”, there was clearly a framework in place to use as a guide.


View attachment 26937View attachment 26938
 

ABMD

Bullets don't fly without Supply
So what should we do? A nation-wide mandatory 14 day quarantine for all non-essential personal (anyone other than EMS, firefighter and police). Literally shut the entire country down for 2 weeks? Then keep your fingers crossed when you reopen?
 

taxi1

Well-Known Member
pilot
So you agree that quarantines should be voluntary and we open all schools back up to in-person education since they’ve been closed for 6 months now?
Not a blanket 'yes', because It Depends.

I'm against shutdowns, but disagree with Rudin that they don't have their place. If community spread is out of control, they bring it into control. The problem is we repeatedly let it get out of control.

In pretty much every state I've seen, the state of Community Spread is an element of the decision to reopen schools and let students back in. For example, in PA for K-12, they break the communities into Red, Yellow, or Green based on what's going on in the community. Red = closed, etc.

Also, for every state I've seen, the schools themselves need modifications along with changes in operating procedures. HVAC, windows, flows, quarantine rooms, test protocols, etc.

Here at Big State U, we will test 30K students prior to arrival, based on their originating county. We will random test daily 1% of the student population to determine the state of the virus in the community. HVACs are being modified to increase airflows, room capacity reduced, traffic flows in buildings, dedicated quarantine dorms, and of course masks. It is a lot of work.

But the moment the virus explodes in a community, it will all get shut down and we go back to remote learning. What happens in bars and restaurants and other gatherings matters a lot. Anyone who wants to see schools open and stay open needs to also wear a mask, social distance, and wash yourself.
 

scoolbubba

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
Except most governments didn't follow their own guidelines, which is leading to the lockdown fatigue you're seeing right now. We shut down in march pretty much nationwide when localized outbreaks were happening. Most people saw that their area wasn't affected to the same rate as NYC/New England, and went myeh. The full lockdown quarantine round has already been fired, you can't really take it back. As the virus progresses naturally (which most lockdown skeptics pointed out it would as soon as the lockdown was lifted) there isn't any desire or will to go back to that level of restrictions and governments are grasping at less effective straws and basically shrugging their shoulders.

Outside wearing masks, restricting access to bars, and encouraging social distancing, we are in a wait and see game as far as therapies and vaccines go. The economy is already fucked, so here we are.
 

FinkUFreaky

Well-Known Member
pilot
Not a blanket 'yes', because It Depends.

I'm against shutdowns, but disagree with Rudin that they don't have their place. If community spread is out of control, they bring it into control. The problem is we repeatedly let it get out of control.

In pretty much every state I've seen, the state of Community Spread is an element of the decision to reopen schools and let students back in. For example, in PA for K-12, they break the communities into Red, Yellow, or Green based on what's going on in the community. Red = closed, etc.

Also, for every state I've seen, the schools themselves need modifications along with changes in operating procedures. HVAC, windows, flows, quarantine rooms, test protocols, etc.

Here at Big State U, we will test 30K students prior to arrival, based on their originating county. We will random test daily 1% of the student population to determine the state of the virus in the community. HVACs are being modified to increase airflows, room capacity reduced, traffic flows in buildings, dedicated quarantine dorms, and of course masks. It is a lot of work.

But the moment the virus explodes in a community, it will all get shut down and we go back to remote learning. What happens in bars and restaurants and other gatherings matters a lot. Anyone who wants to see schools open and stay open needs to also wear a mask, social distance, and wash yourself.
I typed a long answer and decided to condense it to the following: funding for universities differs far from funding for K-12. Most universities, public or private, have huge endowments (3 bil at Penn State, a paltry (yet still substantial) 165 mil at UCF). They don't even need to touch them though to upgrade HVAC systems. K-12 funding is going down though with the "two-week" to "four-month with no end in sight" lock-down affecting local taxes in a large way. Would love to see the cuts needed to support HVAC upgrades, less students per teacher, the random testing, etc

I'm sure the answer, as usual, is to have the fed gov pay for it out of our massive budget surplus right? Cause that doesn't come out of ordinary citizen's paychecks; just their children's, and eventually their grandchildren's.

I guess my take though is similar to some others; grocery workers are working. Interacting with hundreds of people per day. Police are working. Medical folks, gas station employees, military, etc are all considered essential and are working. Even the liquor store employee is considered essential. How are teachers not? And virtual learning for the youngin's was a pretty colossal failure in its short experiment. Parenting normally has a huge amount of determination on a child's success in our school system; by going virtual it makes it basically the only factor. If some changes can be made to reduce the risks, I'm all for it. Sick students and teachers should NOT go to school. Some contact tracing. Not sure what else is really feasible.
 

Hair Warrior

New Member
The following chart is not endorsed by me...

26976

but is presented merely to show how the “flatten the curve” zealots are so religious and cultish about this thing that they’ve begun to see it in all things. What’s next, “flatten the curve of Christmas shopping after Thanksgiving so the stores don’t get too crowded”? How about “flatten the curve of college football tailgates so you aren’t trying to find your seat for kickoff at the same time as everyone else is”? Or maybe “flatten the curve of naval aviation training schedules so stash ensigns don’t get as much time in A-pool anymore before they class up”?

FFS.
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
@jackjack will be by straight away to correct you
Who says lockdowns don’t work? Also, could you imagine the uproar if the US military started doing contract tracing? If the House Speaker can’t even support sending federal LEOs to protect federal property...

“Public health workers and members of the Royal Australian Armed Forces in Victoria are carrying out contact-tracing, and going to speak to every positive Covid-19 case in the state but have found one in four people not at home. Those people have been referred to police and may face a fine of 1,652 Australian dollars (€1,002), Andrews said.”

 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
I typed a long answer and decided to condense it to the following: funding for universities differs far from funding for K-12. Most universities, public or private, have huge endowments (3 bil at Penn State, a paltry (yet still substantial) 165 mil at UCF). They don't even need to touch them though to upgrade HVAC systems. K-12 funding is going down though with the "two-week" to "four-month with no end in sight" lock-down affecting local taxes in a large way. Would love to see the cuts needed to support HVAC upgrades, less students per teacher, the random testing, etc

I'm sure the answer, as usual, is to have the fed gov pay for it out of our massive budget surplus right? Cause that doesn't come out of ordinary citizen's paychecks; just their children's, and eventually their grandchildren's.

I guess my take though is similar to some others; grocery workers are working. Interacting with hundreds of people per day. Police are working. Medical folks, gas station employees, military, etc are all considered essential and are working. Even the liquor store employee is considered essential. How are teachers not? And virtual learning for the youngin's was a pretty colossal failure in its short experiment. Parenting normally has a huge amount of determination on a child's success in our school system; by going virtual it makes it basically the only factor. If some changes can be made to reduce the risks, I'm all for it. Sick students and teachers should NOT go to school. Some contact tracing. Not sure what else is really feasible.
It’s purely political at this point and I think it’s reprehensible that students have been kept out of the classroom for six months. The fallout from this is going to last for a while and it’s only going to widen the gap that already existed.

 

PhrogLoop

Adulting is hard
pilot
It’s purely political at this point and I think it’s reprehensible that students have been kept out of the classroom for six months. The fallout from this is going to last for a while and it’s only going to widen the gap that already existed.

You were saying? https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/01/us/schools-reopening-indiana-coronavirus.html?campaign_id=2&emc=edit_th_20200801&instance_id=20907&nl=todaysheadlines&regi_id=60142102&segment_id=34983&user_id=a0efd07853e520659056cb3f13cab53c
 

taxi1

Well-Known Member
pilot
grocery workers are working. Interacting with hundreds of people per day. Police are working. Medical folks, gas station employees, military, etc are all considered essential and are working
What are these people owed by the rest of us? Hazard duty pay? Fast ready access to testing? A promise from the rest of us that we will do our part to prevent community spread?

I’ll say again, what happens in bars and restaurants and other gatherings matters a lot. The ultimate hypocrite is the person going around in close contact without a mask arguing we need to open the schools (not you). The best way to make sure schools reopen is to control community spread.
It’s purely political at this point
Uhh, no.

Taking deep red state Alabama as a case in point, from their guidance.


Local boards of education, upon the recommendation of their superintendents and in consultation with the Alabama Department of Public Health (ADPH) and/or local public health officials, will determine whether and how campuses can reopen safely for the 2020-2021 school year based on the status of the virus in their local community.

Every state I’ve looked has similar verbiage in their plans, which makes sense, since it is the smart thing to do. Look at your own state.
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
For Team Apocalypse (@taxi1 and @PhrogLoop), what exactly is your alternative?

Should we just keep schools closed for something that poses less risk to the students than driving to school? When influenza is more deadly? The CDC just said the Fatality Rate for kids is .1/100,000. Literally one in a

Should we as a nation continue to swan dive into the depths of economic despair?

I mean, one of you said that the only thing more scary than this virus is people not taking it seriously...yet you went to a garage sale? If it’s that scary to you how do you even justify that risk to yourself?

[/URL]

26982
 

exNavyOffRec

Well-Known Member
For Team Apocalypse (@taxi1 and @PhrogLoop), what exactly is your alternative?

Should we just keep schools closed for something that poses less risk to the students than driving to school? When influenza is more deadly?

Should we as a nation continue to swan dive into the depths of economic despair?

I mean, one of you said that the only thing more scary than this virus is people not taking it seriously...yet you went to a garage sale? If it’s that scary to you how do you even justify that risk to yourself?

[/URL]
The sad thing is that keeping the schools closed for in person instruction is going to hurt the special needs students the most.
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
The sad thing is that keeping the schools closed for in person instruction is going to hurt the special needs students the most.
7 million kids get mental health services in school, not to mention speech therapy and other students needing special education resources. So many kids also rely on school to get 2 out of their 3 recommended meals each day. Is one parent supposed to just stay at home to monitor their child’s virtual learning? Not everyone has that luxury. Especially for single-parent homes. Yet the plan for NYC is to open more child care facilities? What’s the difference between that and going to school?

The flu is at least 5-10 times more deadly averaged over the last five years. And 1,000 kids died of drowning in 2017! Are we supposed to close beaches to kids and pour concrete into every swimming pool in the nation?
 
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