Whose motto is "We're not happy until you're not happy".
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COVID-19
- Thread starter Treetop Flyer
- Start date
Whose motto is "We're not happy until you're not happy".
That is our fundamental point of disagreement. You couldn't be more wrong. It wasn't true in 1918 or any other pandemic ever on the planet, it isn't true now. Too many nations have not experienced we what have, to say that is true.
You like to cite the reduced death rate. That has come from rapid development in therapies and drugs, basically everything we've learned to date. Stuff that if we had known back in March, would have greatly reduced total deaths. We're learning about more therapies every day, and there may be another therapy or even a vaccine that brings the virus to its knees. The longer we defer infections, the more lives we save, period. Flattening the curve reduces the area under the curve.
Another point is that the lockdown and reduced load on the system in theory allowed us to get our testing regime set up, and to be sure we had sufficient PPE ready to go for a resurgence. We didn't do that. That is failure of leadership, pure and simple.
As far as accusations I'm not engaging in a civil discussion, I actually read the papers you link to (Do you?). The last paper flat-out made zero assertion about past colds possibly giving immunity to Covid-19 (did you read it?), although the twitter post citing it did. What am I to think, when the guy clearly misrepresents what he is citing?
I live and work in a town that is getting ready to bring back 40,000 or so young people into a tight environment, and is trying to convince them, their child-loving and bill-paying parents, the faculty and staff, and the citizens of the town that we can do this safely and not have our hospital crushed and morgues filled. We've already had one student death, 21 year old with no pre-existing conditions, which has made all of the hypotheticals real. It is a monumental effort. Frankly, I am betting that with the new explosion in cases across the South, it is all going to get shutdown. There are no peeing and non-peeing sections to the pool.
Think that won't have an adverse impact on the economy?
Wear a mask, maintain some distance, wash your hands. Stay outdoors if you must hang in a group. That is really all it takes to run this thing into the ground and get back to a normal economy. But we can't even do this simple thing.
You place blame on a "failure of leadership". What you mean is you blame the President and his administration. For someone who (now) waxes so poetically now about learning about new therapies every day and saving so many lives, how many lives were lost when physicians had to stop using hydroxychloroquine to treat this because the media launched a firestorm against it?
Who is in charge of each state's response to disasters? Who is in charge of each metropolitan area's hospital systems? Who is in charge of county health programs?
How many Penn State students died in 2019 from the flu? How many died in car accidents? How many died from alcohol and drug related accidents and or overdoses? How many died from suicide? If college and universities shut down, not all of them are going to survive. So I think the stakeholders would need to take a long hard look at the facts and if they decide that an illness that is less likely to kill their students than the flu necessitates a shutdown, they'll have to deal with the repercussions.
As far as civility, I don't think this has been uncivilized. I'm not the one who said you're operating in transmit only, I just agreed with him.
P.S. it's been awhile since calculus but I'm not sure that flattening the curve doesn't reduce the area under it. If you're reducing the area under the curve you're doing something totally different; you're changing the function. So we need to pick one.
And numerous governors who have decided this virus is fake news. You think governors like DeSantos would be acting this way if the Trump administration was taking this pandemic seriously? I think he'd fall in line pretty quickly.
What will be interesting is if another country comes up with a distribution-ready vaccine first, and we aren't the first to get it. Or, we come up with a vaccine first, and nobody can agree on a cohesive distribution plan.
I think there's one hell of a food fight coming.
I think there's one hell of a food fight coming.
I disagree. Greg Abbott for example.
And, once again, I ask why Gavin Newsom hasn’t been held to task (by the media) for his state’s failure to reduce the spread of the virus. Same with Andrew Cuomo and the thousands and thousands of elderly folks who died in nursing homes in his state. Or Phil Murphy, whose state has the highest amount of deaths per capita (NY is in a close second). Their policies, and thus “leadership”, turned out very poorly, yet they’re being given a free pass. And this isn’t just limited to gubernatorial politics, NYC has seen a record number of shooting deaths recently, and cops are putting in their retirement papers faster than 1 PP can process them. Yet Bill DeBlasio is being commended for his leadership in allowing his city to be held captive by rioters and looters.
Anyway, back to Florida, interesting picture posted below. Maybe, just maybe, Ron DeSantis has a better idea of what’s going on in Florida than you.
Anyway, welcome back to this thread! Glad you’re doing well, looking forward to your answering the other questions I asked a while ago but haven’t heard back on.
I read somewhere (I think it was in Haaretz or the Jerusalem Post) that Israel seems to think they are pretty close to having a vaccine. If I can find it, I'll post it. I'd take this with a grain of salt as I don't trust most news agencies in Israel as they act like propagandists much like RT does. It will be interesting if Israel makes this readily available to the world or holds onto it because of their paranoia.
EDIT: Here it is. https://www.israel21c.org/israeli-covid-19-vaccine-successful-in-hamster-test/
Yeah but every participant in that trial ended up as a hamster after getting the vaccine.
I think you’re giving way too much credit/blame to government responses to the virus. Everyone is grasping at straws, finding examples that fit their narrative. Meanwhile Sweden didn’t do much and it looks like they may be done with the pandemic. Other European nations like Italy and Spain and the UK all tried locking down and still suffered. Is the virus mostly gone there now because of the actions of man or because it spread until it burned out?
I think we will know more in a year or two. We know (mostly) who is at risk. We know (somewhat) the dangers of “lock downs”. I think that the virus doesn’t care much about government policy, and it will do what it does based on many many factors.
That's a small price to pay.
But be careful what you eat in the wardroom from now on . . .
Was reading an article the other day that essentially said there's going to be more than one vaccine anyway, because in all likelihood, multiple approaches will pan out and turn out to be either more useful for some demographics or just a way to alleviate crushing demand. There's not going to be One Vaccine to Rule Them All.
Say whaaaaa? Not always.
This is the proverbial sort of "great if true"
A New Understanding of Herd Immunity
The portion of the population that needs to get sick is not fixed. We can change it.
Lipsitch also believes that heterogeneity is important to factor into any model. It was one reason he updated his prediction, not long after we spoke in February, of what the herd-immunity threshold would be. Instead of 40 to 70 percent, he lowered it to 20 to 60 percent. When we spoke last week, he said he still stands by that, but he is skeptical that the number lands close to the 20 percent end of the range. “I think it’s unlikely,” he said, but added, “This virus is proving there can be orders-of-magnitude differences in attack rates, depending on political and societal decisions, which I don’t know how to forecast.”
...What we seem to need is a better understanding of herd immunity in this novel context. The threshold can change based on how a virus spreads. The spread keeps on changing based on how we react to it at every stage, and the effects compound. Small preventive measures have big downstream effects. In other words, the herd in question determines its immunity. There is no mystery in how to drop the R0 to below 1 and reach an effective herd immunity: masks, social distancing, hand-washing, and everything everyone is tired of hearing about. It is already being done.