That’s not my role. I’m just pointing out the holes in your argument. I have no way of knowing one way or another… just like you.Are you prepared to go on the record that everyone will get out by August 31st?
That’s not my role. I’m just pointing out the holes in your argument. I have no way of knowing one way or another… just like you.Are you prepared to go on the record that everyone will get out by August 31st?
Oh, I see you’ve sobered up. It’s certainly rocket surgery if you don’t know the number of people that need to be moved, which none of us does.Estimating the maximum amount of Americans in the region, adding a buffer for uncertainty, and determining how many resources it would take to evacuate in a week isn't rocket surgery.
Did you expect things to collapse there to the point where we had planes taxiing through mobs of panicked people with people falling to their deaths as planes took off? Perhaps the current administration and senior military leadership don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt after spending the last six months focusing on mythical extremism.My point being, you don’t know the answer to that question, so pontificating about whether or not we have the capacity to airlift that number of people out in 7 days is not particularly useful. It’s just uninformed speculation.
You don't need to know that number. As a notional example, let's say that we estimate there's 5,000 people left in Afghanistan. Then you say oh, there's probably some buffer on there, so we can be 99.99% confident that there are fewer than 9,000 people in Afghanistan. Can we move 9,000 people by August 31st?It’s certainly rocket surgery if you don’t know the number of people that need to be moved, which none of us does.
What if the number is 200, or 20,000? You’re presuming a certain range based on zero factual information. Unless you have a rough idea, and I don’t think that you do, then you’re just speculating… which is stupid.You don't need to know that number. As a notional example, let's say that we estimate there's 5,000 people left in Afghanistan. Then you say oh, there's probably some buffer on there, so we can be 99.99% confident that there are fewer than 9,000 people in Afghanistan. Can we move 9,000 people by August 31st?
So yes, I agree that we don't know if there's 5,256 or 5,727 people there. But that's a red herring.
I don't know. I never said I did. It is an opinion I was comfortable going on the record with in AW land. I'll take my lumps if I am wrong. I will be very happy to be wrong.That’s not my role. I’m just pointing out the holes in your argument. I have no way of knowing one way or another… just like you.
I think that the federal government can get a reasonable close-in estimate of how many people it's paying to work in Afghanistan. In fact, they estimate between 5-10k people remain and can airlift 9k per day, so the mission to complete evaluation by Aug 31 is feasible. The issue is not knowing if there are any stragglers.What if the number is 200, or 20,000? You’re presuming a certain range based on zero factual information. Unless you have a rough idea, and I don’t think that you do, then you’re just speculating… which is stupid.
I don’t think you’re paying attention to what is being discussed.I think that the federal government can get a reasonable close-in estimate of how many people it's paying to work in Afghanistan. In fact, they estimate between 5-10k people remain and can airlift 9k per day, so the mission to complete evaluation by Aug 31 is feasible. The issue is not knowing if there are any stragglers.
These might be three, but not the only three. As mentioned earlier in this thread:From Afghan General, interesting article...
Opinion | I Commanded Afghan Troops This Year. We Were Betrayed.
It pains me to see President Biden and other Western officials blame the Afghan Army for collapsing but not mention why that happened.www.nytimes.com
So why did the Afghan military collapse? The answer is threefold.
First, former President Donald Trump’s February 2020 peace deal with the Taliban in Doha doomed us. It put an expiration date on American interest in the region. Second, we lost contractor logistics and maintenance support critical to our combat operations. Third, the corruption endemic in Mr. Ghani’s government that flowed to senior military leadership and long crippled our forces on the ground irreparably hobbled us.
Don’t you think it’s just as likely that the USG made the determination that they could get everything done that needed to be done before publicly announcing that date? The air bridge is now moving a significant number of people every day. Presumably 7 more days will be sufficient, unless you have information to the contrary?
I know this got fucked away at the outset for various reasons, but the operation seems to be working currently.
Sure, and the author has a particular perspective. But it remains interesting, to include the fact that he wrote the editorial.These might be three, but not the only three.
You could argue that it was a bug, or a feature. Have them beholden to us?-We shouldn’t have modeled the ANSDF on the US military, including our rely-on-many-moving-parts way of war and leaving behind aircraft/ weapons/ comms gear/ biometrics devices and expecting it to work
You’re also not paying attention to what we’re discussing.Kevin McCarthy: There is 'no possible way' we can evacuate Americans from Afghanistan by Aug 31 | Fox News
House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said during a Tuesday news conference that there is “no way” President Biden will be able to evacuate all of the Americans currently trapped in Afghanistan by the Aug. 31 deadline.www.foxnews.com
I know you'll discount the source, but I'm sure the House Minority leader has just a bit more information than you do on this topic and apparently he's not confident that we can get all Americans out by Aug. 31*.
*could be political theatre, but given what other officials are saying publicly from calls and emails from citizens in country, I doubt it is.