It absolutely is possible. I don't believe it is "just as likely", as in the same probability. No. We lost days at the outset. Then we had days where the aircraft load factor was crazy low given the demand. Much smoother now, yes. But count the planes and the lift per plane and the number of days left. It is hard to imagine they are going to get all the Americans out, especially those outside Kabul, AND the SIVs. I hope I am wrong.Don’t you think it’s just as likely that the USG made the determination that they could get everything done that needed to be done before publicly announcing that date? The air bridge is now moving a significant number of people every day. Presumably 7 more days will be sufficient, unless you have information to the contrary?
I know this got fucked away at the outset for various reasons, but the operation seems to be working currently.
You mean surface access? What is your point? The fact the Taliban has us by the short hairs is accepted. How we react, in the interests of American civilian lives, is the question.It would be incredibly easy to shut down that airport.
I wouldn’t bet on Pakistan siding with the US over a Taliban-led Afghanistan in the long term. There’s a good reason we didn’t tell Pakistan about Abottabad before the raid. And then Pakistan gave our helo wreckage to China.It's all about Pakistan.
Pakistan let us fly over their territory and ship goods via ground, while simultaneously giving the Taliban sanctuary.
The Afghan-Pak relationship is going to be the one to watch.
Good question. Perhaps someone should have thought about that.
He was right that it wouldn’t be another Saigon. This is way more embarrassing and pathetic.I'm sure this was all part of the plan.
'Never underestimate Joe's ability to fuck things up' -President Obama
How many Americans and SIVs remain in country?It absolutely is possible. I don't believe it is "just as likely", as in the same probability. No. We lost days at the outset. Then we had days where the aircraft load factor was crazy low given the demand. Much smoother now, yes. But count the planes and the lift per plane and the number of days left. It is hard to imagine they are going to get all the Americans out, especially those outside Kabul, AND the SIVs. I hope I am wrong.
If you can answer that accurately, you’ve got one up on the power of the entire DOD and DOS working together(ish)How many Americans and SIVs remain in country?
The only way we will know how many are left is when the Taliban tells us how many they have in custody after August 31st. When you can't say how many people you have to take out, when you are not in communication with all that have to leave and you set an arbitrary date for stopping the evacuation, only chance will determine whether we get everyone out.How many Americans and SIVs remain in country?
My point being, you don’t know the answer to that question, so pontificating about whether or not we have the capacity to airlift that number of people out in 7 days is not particularly useful. It’s just uninformed speculation.The only way we will know how many are left is when the Taliban tells us how many they have in custody after August 31st. When you can't say how many people you have to take out, when you are not in communication with all that have to leave and you set an arbitrary date for stopping the evacuation, only chance will determine whether we get everyone out.