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Leaving Vietnam vs AFG

wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Don’t you think it’s just as likely that the USG made the determination that they could get everything done that needed to be done before publicly announcing that date? The air bridge is now moving a significant number of people every day. Presumably 7 more days will be sufficient, unless you have information to the contrary?

I know this got fucked away at the outset for various reasons, but the operation seems to be working currently.
It absolutely is possible. I don't believe it is "just as likely", as in the same probability. No. We lost days at the outset. Then we had days where the aircraft load factor was crazy low given the demand. Much smoother now, yes. But count the planes and the lift per plane and the number of days left. It is hard to imagine they are going to get all the Americans out, especially those outside Kabul, AND the SIVs. I hope I am wrong.
 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
It would be incredibly easy to shut down that airport.
You mean surface access? What is your point? The fact the Taliban has us by the short hairs is accepted. How we react, in the interests of American civilian lives, is the question.
 

Hair Warrior

Well-Known Member
Contributor
It's all about Pakistan.

Pakistan let us fly over their territory and ship goods via ground, while simultaneously giving the Taliban sanctuary.

The Afghan-Pak relationship is going to be the one to watch.
I wouldn’t bet on Pakistan siding with the US over a Taliban-led Afghanistan in the long term. There’s a good reason we didn’t tell Pakistan about Abottabad before the raid. And then Pakistan gave our helo wreckage to China.
 

Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
It absolutely is possible. I don't believe it is "just as likely", as in the same probability. No. We lost days at the outset. Then we had days where the aircraft load factor was crazy low given the demand. Much smoother now, yes. But count the planes and the lift per plane and the number of days left. It is hard to imagine they are going to get all the Americans out, especially those outside Kabul, AND the SIVs. I hope I am wrong.
How many Americans and SIVs remain in country?
 

dustydog

Registered User
pilot
The PBS series, The American Experience, has an excellent documentary about the final days of Saigon. It provides some good perspective vis a vis the AFG vs Vietnam debate.

 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
How many Americans and SIVs remain in country?
The only way we will know how many are left is when the Taliban tells us how many they have in custody after August 31st. When you can't say how many people you have to take out, when you are not in communication with all that have to leave and you set an arbitrary date for stopping the evacuation, only chance will determine whether we get everyone out.
 

Brett327

Well-Known Member
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
The only way we will know how many are left is when the Taliban tells us how many they have in custody after August 31st. When you can't say how many people you have to take out, when you are not in communication with all that have to leave and you set an arbitrary date for stopping the evacuation, only chance will determine whether we get everyone out.
My point being, you don’t know the answer to that question, so pontificating about whether or not we have the capacity to airlift that number of people out in 7 days is not particularly useful. It’s just uninformed speculation.
 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Or an opinion based on all the open source information available to me. I admitted it was possible we get everyone out. In my opinion it is unlikely. It is shared by people smarter and better informed than me. Useful? No less than the conflicting statements we have gotten from the government.

Are you prepared to go on the record that everyone will get out by August 31st? I don't think you were ever involved in any operational planning that did not have metrics that defined mission completion. An arbitrary date hardly qualifies especially since it was set before the mission unfolded.
 

Spekkio

He bowls overhand.
Estimating the maximum amount of Americans in the region, adding a buffer for uncertainty, and determining how many resources it would take to evacuate in a week isn't rocket surgery.
 
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