Leaving Vietnam vs AFG

[wink]

A lot of talk about how inevitable the end was. Can we not agree that no one in their right mind would want to see what happened these last few days, AND that it was preventable in large measure? Because the sun rising is inevitable does not make a filling breakfast inevitable. There is a solid factual based argument the it was inevitable the Afghan government would fold some day in the future after we left. But it was not inevitable that it fold in days. The withdrawal hardly required that the air support I am told in these pages is still in place was not tapped. It was not necessary that we leave operable equipment behind, and it absolutely was not inevitable that we have the mess we have in the evacuation. Insisting that this outcome was inevitable without clarification allows monumental incompetence to go without criticism or consequence.

 

[Griz882]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1427693329249099795

10-15,000 Americans left in Afghanistan? Get to the airport, but you’re on your own getting there and good luck? All part of the plan. Totally inevitable.

Maybe it was devised as a deception/blocking manuever? The waves of innocent US citizens will keep Taliban traffic from reaching the airport. Biden is brilliant.

 

[wink]

Out of curiosity, were they previously advised to leave and just didn't heed the warning, or were they told that everything was pretty good?

The aforementioned woman I know that taught school over there had very good private security. Their intel came for the same sources that said just a couple weeks ago everything would be fine for the time being. The US government obviously thought things would be "pretty good" or we would not have the mess we do now. I am confident our civilians were not told to light a fire and get moving until it was too late.

 

[jmcquate]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1427693329249099795

10-15,000 Americans left in Afghanistan? Get to the airport, but you’re on your own getting there and good luck? All part of the plan. Totally inevitable.

So we're doing Viet Nam and Iran again? It's like living "That 70s Show".

 

[MIDNJAC]

The aforementioned woman I know that taught school over there had very good private security. Their intel came for the same sources that said just a couple weeks ago everything would be fine for the time being. The US government obviously thought things would be "pretty good" or we would not have the mess we do now. I am confident our civilians were not told to light a fire and get moving until it was too late.

Basically what I had assumed

I'm sure they were happy to see the follow-up "never mind you're actually super f****d, good luck getting to Kabul lol" announcement. Hopefully enough of them got enough of a spidey sense, seeing what was going on around them, to take the appropriate action and GTFO to the airport earlier than this. Still, what a colossal way for the govt to fail them.

 

[Hair Warrior]

To anyone who considers the Taliban takeover to be rellatively bloodless and low death toll, don’t kid yourself. Death, rape, torture, and enslavement are coming for countless men, women, and children of Afghanistan for however long the Taliban rule. If you want a brutal glimpse of what life is like for Afghan civilians under the Taliban, listen to Jocko podcast #192 (probably the toughest one to listen to that I know of).

 

[Random8145]

This was always going to be the outcome. If we’re looking to point fingers, Bush and his admin got us into this mess, and a long lineage of senior military leadership sustained the delusion that we were perpetually on the cusp of turning the corner. One presumes that this could have been done more gracefully, but it needed to be done.

I think it is a little over-simplified to just blame Bush. Bush got us into it because of 9/11.

 

[Random8145]

The thing about Trump is I think the Taliban would have been a lot more hesitant about trying this with him in charge. He is the man who was threatening to blow Kim Jong-Un to high hell, who killed Soleimani, had laid waste to ISIS, etc...he was feared. And it was made very clear that he absolutely drew the line at the killing of Americans.

What I am curious about is why on Earth were the generals all claiming Afghanistan was much more under control for all these years? Were they delusional, or was it faulty intelligence, or were they just straight up lying, and if so, why? I remember there was a report from some years ago that said that the military had been lying for years about actual progress in Afghanistan.

So we have now royally f***-ed over another whole population of people. We did it to South Vietnam when Congress pulled the funding for them in the 1970s and now we have again royally effed over a crap ton of men, women, and children who are about to undergo the horrors the Soviet peoples and the Jews did from the Germans in WWII☹ We also effed over all the military personnel who fought and died or suffered severe injury and trauma while fighting there as all of their work has been for naught.

Also if our intelligence regarding Afghanistan's ability to stay stable was this bad, then I sure would hate to be Taiwan if our intelligence are assuring them that China does not yet possess the capability to really try to take them over.

 

[Hair Warrior]

Pay special attention to the timelines and movements of the Taliban leaders. Not all stayed in Afghanistan for the past 20 years. Here’s a snippet:

Chief of Taliban's political office arrives in Kandahar province -tweet

AFGHANISTAN-CONFLICT/BARADAR (URGENT):Chief of Taliban's political office arrives in Kandahar province -tweet

news.trust.org

The thing about Trump is I think the Taliban would have been a lot more hesitant about trying this with him in charge. He is the man who was threatening to blow Kim Jong-Un to high hell, who killed Soleimani, had laid waste to ISIS, etc...he was feared. And it was made very clear that he absolutely drew the line at the killing of Americans.

What I am curious about is why on Earth were the generals all claiming Afghanistan was much more under control for all these years? Were they delusional, or was it faulty intelligence, or were they just straight up lying, and if so, why? I remember there was a report from some years ago that said that the military had been lying for years about actual progress in Afghanistan.

So we have now royally f***-ed over another whole population of people. We did it to South Vietnam when Congress pulled the funding for them in the 1970s and now we have again royally effed over a crap ton of men, women, and children who are about to undergo the horrors the Soviet peoples and the Jews did from the Germans in WWII☹ We also effed over all the military personnel who fought and died or suffered severe injury and trauma while fighting there as all of their work has been for naught.

Also if our intelligence regarding Afghanistan's ability to stay stable was this bad, then I sure would hate to be Taiwan if our intelligence are assuring them that China does not yet possess the capability to really try to take them over.

Most of what you wrote is incorrect or misleading.

 

[Griz882]

Right now the Taliban is working overtime to put on a nice "This time we want to govern without terror" face as expressed in the return of Baradar - always seen as a calming influence within the Taiban - but the deeper fissures rest within the ranks of their army. These guys were promised something. A wife, a house, a business...and they will collect. That's when things will start to go sideways. Akhundzada acts as if he arrived in Kabul with a cohesive, conquering army when in truth he arrived with a mob anxious for victory but entirely unaware of what to do with it.

The only way for the Taliban to maintain any type of control is to pay their debts to their fighters and the only way to do that is to essentially sack each and every city for the sake of the fighters. Once that starts new wars will start (including some within the Taliban). The primary income the country will get must eventually come from terror organizations looking for a safe haven for training and once more Afghanistan will become the world's piriah.

 

[taxi1]

These guys were promised something. A wife, a house, a business...and they will collect.

Yeah, religious fervor will only get you so far.

The wives in particular.

Also if our intelligence regarding Afghanistan's ability to stay stable was this bad, then I sure would hate to be Taiwan if our intelligence are assuring them that China does not yet possess the capability to really try to take them over.

Apples and oranges.

With regard to Taiwan, the analogy would be us assessing their will to fight. It’s far easier to count weapons systems than it is to assess hearts and minds, and that is what collapsed...their will to fight. They weren’t defeated, they gave up. (As a collective, there were plenty that would still be fighting now.)

I go back to our decision to negotiate directly with the Taliban, leaving the AFG outside looking in. That is at the center of this thing. Why did we do that?

 

[Mirage]

So we have now royally f***-ed over another whole population of people.

We have not f'd over anyone. The American people owe nothing to the Afghan people. We helped them for 20 years, educated them, built schools, govt buildings, etc, that we didn't owe them. We gave them the chance of a lifetime to secure a democratic future for themselves, and they didn't take it. Any suffering that comes is on them, and would have happened for the last 20 years as well if not for us.

 

[Brett327]

I think it is a little over-simplified to just blame Bush. Bush got us into it because of 9/11.

The strategic decision that transforming Afghanistan into a modern, democratic nation-state so as to prevent it from being host to terrorist organizations that could plot 9/11 style attacks was conceived by the Bush administration. That the underlying premise was wrong, and the ultimate goal was farcically unachievable, was also attributable to the Bush administration. I’m curious to hear your analysis on what other individuals or administration actions carried more weight in bringing us to this point in the conflict.

 

[picklesuit]

The strategic decision that transforming Afghanistan into a modern, democratic nation-state so as to prevent it from being host to terrorist organizations that could plot 9/11 style attacks was conceived by the Bush administration. That the underlying premise was wrong, and the ultimate goal was farcically unachievable, was also attributable to the Bush administration. I’m curious to hear your analysis on what other individuals or administration actions carried more weight in bringing us to this point in the conflict.

The Brits

 

[Brett327]

The Brits

Go on…