Leaving Vietnam vs AFG

[Jim123]

How do you know that they didn’t predict this outcome? You’re making some fairly significant assumptions based on zero evidence Or knowledge of the IC assessments.

If they did make that prediction—ANA folding in less than 72 hours—then the ensuing panic and chaos on TV at the airport and in the cities, emergency destruction plan and striking the colors at our embassy should have been obvious. That's a pretty bold move for the CinC to have basically listened to the briefs and then told the room "we'll just have to deal with the fallout."

I'm sure they briefed it as one of the possibilities, that the place would fall apart within a couple months or a maybe even a few weeks at the least.

But if they were taking it seriously that the place would fall apart in three days, that implies we put our embassy in one helluva tight spot. And that's my point, the three day Taliban takeover. It's that pace of it that our side failed to predict. (I don't think a Taliban takeover or a civil war was ever in doubt, least of all to our intelligence apparatus.)


Maybe there's another possibility. Maybe back in June or so the conversation went something like somebody called time out Mister President, every "we're making good progress with our Afghan partners" success story is bullshit, there are way more moles in the Afghan army than anyone wants to admit, and the minute we leave half of them are going to turncoat and the other half will disappear. Lots of them play nice with our trainers and go through the motions because let's face it, it's a paycheck. That's how it's been for a long time, no matter what anybody briefed you on in the past. The longer we wait then the harder it's going to be to rip the band-aid off. What'll it be, Mister President?


I'm open to other explanations, and I realize the known facts are going to change over time and different things come to light.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

How do you know that they didn’t predict this outcome? You’re making some fairly significant assumptions based on zero evidence Or knowledge of the IC assessments.

One of the stupidest posts ever made on this site. Congrats.

 

[SlickAg]

“Naturally this has damaged American credibility, along with that of the intelligence services and of the military,” said Rüdiger Lentz, the former head of the Aspen Institute in Berlin.

“One can only hope that the damage to America’s foreign policy leadership can be quickly contained.”

Disbelief and betrayal: Europe reacts to Biden’s Afghanistan ‘miscalculation’

‘This does fundamental damage to the political and moral credibility of the West,’ says senior German lawmaker.

www.politico.eu

 

[Brett327]

If they did make that prediction—ANA folding in less than 72 hours—then the ensuing panic and chaos on TV at the airport and in the cities, emergency destruction plan and striking the colors at our embassy should have been obvious. That's a pretty bold move for the CinC to have basically listened to the briefs and then told the room "we'll just have to deal with the fallout."

I'm sure they briefed it as one of the possibilities, that the place would fall apart within a couple months or a maybe even a few weeks at the least.

But if they were taking it seriously that the place would fall apart in three days, that implies we put our embassy in one helluva tight spot. And that's my point, the three day Taliban takeover. It's that pace of it that our side failed to predict. (I don't think a Taliban takeover or a civil war was ever in doubt, least of all to our intelligence apparatus.)


Maybe there's another possibility. Maybe back in June or so the conversation went something like somebody called time out Mister President, every "we're making good progress with our Afghan partners" success story is bullshit, there are way more moles in the Afghan army than anyone wants to admit, and the minute we leave half of them are going to turncoat and the other half will disappear. Lots of them play nice with our trainers and go through the motions because let's face it, it's a paycheck. That's how it's been for a long time, no matter what anybody briefed you on in the past. The longer we wait then the harder it's going to be to rip the band-aid off. What'll it be, Mister President?


I'm open to other explanations, and I realize the known facts are going to change over time and different things come to light.

Hyperbole doesn’t help your cause. This was years in the making. I’m not arguing that this was the best outcome, just that this was always the eventual outcome.

 

[Randy Daytona]

It's one thing to say "we needed out, and this was going to happen anyway," but I'd give my left nut to be a fly on the wall in certain conference rooms in Taipei, Beijing, and Moscow after this fiasco. The entire narrative now is "America can't protect her allies," and dollars to donuts it's not just Islamic terrorists who are updating what they think is feasible right now. Because if you think this didn't utterly fuck our credibility with potential allies, think again.

Afghanistan was not an ally, it was the occupation of a historically poor and corrupt region (I hesitate to use the word nation) that was held together by pallets of $100 bills. It drained the US of trillions of dollars, equipment, time, focus and national will better husbanded for future great power competition. I would imagine that Beijing and Moscow are disappointed we are not continuing to pour cash down that endless money pit.

Speaking of money, any truth to the rumor that the Afghan president fled the country with his helicopter and cars stuffed with US taxpayer currency?

 

[taxi1]

You don't think we could have held them off with air power and special forces leading Afghan nationals?

Probably? I don’t know. Considering there was essentially zero will to fight...

I always thought that it was highly unusual that we (USA, NATO) brokered a deal with the Taliban in our Doha talks, and didn’t include the Afghan government in them. We signed the deal in Feb 2020.

That’s worth repeating - we didn’t include the government of Afghanistan in talks with the enemy about us leaving Afghanistan.

From a news article at the time.

The deal was signed by US special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban political chief Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as a witness.

In a speech, Mr Pompeo urged the militant group to "keep your promises to cut ties with al-Qaeda".

Mr Baradar said he hoped Afghanistan could now emerge from four decades of conflict.

"I hope that with the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan the Afghan nation under an Islamic regime will take its relief and embark on a new prosperous life," he said.

Sounds like things progressed as planned. The Afghans and Taliban were to have started talking later. Considering that there were essentially zero shots fired in the collapse, I guess those talks resulted in a peaceful transition of power.

 

[taxi1]

How do you know that they didn’t predict this outcome? You’re making some fairly significant assumptions based on zero evidence Or knowledge of the IC assessments.

The way we left Bagram, in the middle of the night with no big parade and passing of flags and shaking of hands...that tells me that we knew what was going down.

 

[Mirage]

The way we left Bagram, in the middle of the night with no big parade and passing of flags and shaking of hands...that tells me that we knew what was going down.

From Biden's speech yesterday:
"But I always promised the American people that I will be straight with you. The truth is: This did unfold more quickly than we had anticipated.

So what’s happened? Afghanistan political leaders gave up and fled the country. The Afghan military collapsed, sometimes without trying to fight."

Yeah, this all went according to plan. You're delusional.

 

[taxi1]

From Biden's speech yesterday:
"But I always promised the American people that I will be straight with you. The truth is: This did unfold more quickly than we had anticipated.

So what’s happened? Afghanistan political leaders gave up and fled the country. The Afghan military collapsed, sometimes without trying to fight."

Yeah, this all went according to plan. You're delusional.

So why did we sneak out of Bagram in the middle of the night?

 

[taxi1]

Saw this quote..."We wanted out badly, and we got out badly"

Sitting at my desk watching the skies over Kabul...

 

[Mirage]

So why did we sneak out of Bagram in the middle of the night?

So because of some anecdote about sneaking out of Bagram you think Biden is lying to make himself sound even more incompetent? Not to mention the other overwhelming evidence this was not the plan, such as us rushing to get the embassy cleared out a couple days after stating we intended to keep the Embassy staffed?

 

[taxi1]

So because of some anecdote about sneaking out of Bagram...

So why did we sneak out of Bagram?

I spent time there and in Balad, Iraq, for example, and we had an orderly turnover to Iraqi forces there (as orderly as anything is over there). Yet we left in the middle of the night from Bagram and didn't even tell the Afghan CDR we were leaving.

Why do you think that is? What sort of intel would we have had to tell us to do that?

 

[Treetop Flyer]

So why did we sneak out of Bagram?

I spent time there and in Balad, Iraq, for example, and we had an orderly turnover to Iraqi forces there (as orderly as anything is over there). Yet we left in the middle of the night from Bagram and didn't even tell the Afghan CDR we were leaving.

Why do you think that is? What sort of intel would we have had to tell us to do that?

Why do we have three times as many troops there as we did a month ago?

I’d like to see the part of the plan that covered taxiing through panicked mobs and sending people plummeting to their deaths when raising the gear if things are going according to plan.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

Ex-Obama adviser says Biden's top foreign policy aide should be fired

Obama-era Director of Global Engagement wrote a scathing op-ed accusing Jake Sullivan of failing at his job and says Joe Biden's national security structure isn't meeting the challenge of global threats

www.dailymail.co.uk

Former Obama advisor thinks Biden should fire his national security advisor and several others for the botched withdrawal. All part of the plan. It’s going exactly as planned.

 

[Mirage]

So why did we sneak out of Bagram?

I spent time there and in Balad, Iraq, for example, and we had an orderly turnover to Iraqi forces there (as orderly as anything is over there). Yet we left in the middle of the night from Bagram and didn't even tell the Afghan CDR we were leaving.

Why do you think that is? What sort of intel would we have had to tell us to do that?

I'll answer your question if you answer mine.

Why did we leave Bagram like that? I'll take your word for it that we did, and my answer is I have nowhere near enough info to understand why we would do that. I don't know is my answer. There are plenty of possible explanations other than "we planned to leave the entire country in a panic".

Now your turn. Why would Biden lie in a written speech on national TV and say this did not go according to plan if it did in fact go to plan? Why would his administration say we were going to keep our embassy there indefinitely, then reverse course in a panic a day later? Why would Biden say there is no chance our withdrawal will look like Vietnam if this was the plan?