Rand study on USAF pilot retention

[SlickAg]

Who is the Naval Aviation leadership you’re speaking of? Flag officers of local CO/XOs? Both? Not trying to be argumentative, just curious.

Which Flag officer said that?

The list is long but distinguished.

From my experience the policies that drive retention, or a lack thereof, haven't come from the Skipper/XO level. The exception to this would be death by one thousand paper cuts sort of willingness to bow to the ISIC's whims and not stand up for their ready room.

Guys going to Admiral's Mast for a Fo'c'sle Follies skit, the great callsign scourge of 2010, same thing in 2011, Awards Quarters instead of Fo'c'sle Follies, the colored t-shirt debacle, certain morale patches commemorating the centennial of naval aviation being banned, having the PERS 43 stand up and say there isn't a retention problem only to find out that there actually IS a problem with no accountability for the mistake, having the CNATRA COS tell me after the repeat O-4 blood bath in which half "his" JOs didn't promote that if they mattered they wouldn't have come to orange and white (paraphrase; the actual quote was a very awkward story about his time as a HSL RAG IP), having the same admiral that told us if we didn't like it we could get leave tell us to shut up and color when guys questioned how safe OBOGS was, being scheduled 6 days a week to push wingers out just to have them go to 122 and sit due to THEIR maintenance issues...

This isn't the "oh shucks I can't get wasted at the O Club and drive home without getting a DUI anymore" complaint about the death of naval aviation culture. I understand that times are changing and the culture of the military and Navy at large are as well. Even though I disagree with his current politics, at least Jim Webb resigned as SECNAV rather than agree to reducing the size of the Navy under his watch. Lots of JOs are voting with their feet, and they're having a problem keeping around post-Command Commanders. It would've been nice to watch some O-6 and above types be a little more vocal for their troops. But maybe that type of leadership doesn't exist anymore.

It's funny, the only place I've really seen leadership truly put their people first is in the Reserves. And they don't really care if they promote anymore...makes you think.

 

[Pags]

The single-biggest hold-up to that idea is connectivity, IMO. When we can figure out how to communicate beyond line of sight, things get easier, but until then, you're going to have to have assets in theater (which may not always be practical, depending on other adversary weapon systems) or you going to have to hope a peer adversary isn't space-capable. And we're already past the latter, for now.

Truth. If I had a solution to that part of the problem I wouldn't be on here talking to you poor losers. I'd be out driving around in my solid gold rocket car.

 

[Python]

The list is long but distinguished.

From my experience the policies that drive retention, or a lack thereof, haven't come from the Skipper/XO level. The exception to this would be death by one thousand paper cuts sort of willingness to bow to the ISIC's whims and not stand up for their ready room.

Guys going to Admiral's Mast for a Fo'c'sle Follies skit, the great callsign scourge of 2010, same thing in 2011, Awards Quarters instead of Fo'c'sle Follies, the colored t-shirt debacle, certain morale patches commemorating the centennial of naval aviation being banned, having the PERS 43 stand up and say there isn't a retention problem only to find out that there actually IS a problem with no accountability for the mistake, having the CNATRA COS tell me after the repeat O-4 blood bath in which half "his" JOs didn't promote that if they mattered they wouldn't have come to orange and white (paraphrase; the actual quote was a very awkward story about his time as a HSL RAG IP), having the same admiral that told us if we didn't like it we could get leave tell us to shut up and color when guys questioned how safe OBOGS was, being scheduled 6 days a week to push wingers out just to have them go to 122 and sit due to THEIR maintenance issues...

This isn't the "oh shucks I can't get wasted at the O Club and drive home without getting a DUI anymore" complaint about the death of naval aviation culture. I understand that times are changing and the culture of the military and Navy at large are as well. Even though I disagree with his current politics, at least Jim Webb resigned as SECNAV rather than agree to reducing the size of the Navy under his watch. Lots of JOs are voting with their feet, and they're having a problem keeping around post-Command Commanders. It would've been nice to watch some O-6 and above types be a little more vocal for their troops. But maybe that type of leadership doesn't exist anymore.

It's funny, the only place I've really seen leadership truly put their people first is in the Reserves. And they don't really care if they promote anymore...makes you think.

THIS!

 

[Angry]

Has anyone yet considered (I'm sure you all have I'm just using it as an intro) that this problem might be easier to solve if the people making decisions now were actually held accountable 3-5-10 years from now when the consequences become evident? Something I've never understood about the Navy is how people in positions of authority now get to make (or not make) decisions for the long-term but aren't around when shit hits the fan. It starts at the Detailer level (the last guy didn't lie to you, the truth just changed and I'm not held to his promises) and goes all the way up past -43 (there is no problem...that you can prove the existence of in the next 24 months when I anticipate putting on a Star) to the CNO/SECNAV level.

We have a culture of decision making that doesn't reward innovation, risk taking, or thinking outside the box. Whatever the last guy did that didn't get him fired is the go to, because very few people put community viability ahead of their own career viability. That's not a shot at the individual, that's human nature. It's the military equivalent of Moral Hazard.

What's the solution? I have no clue. We've beaten the typical Navy career path and 3 year orders rotation issues to death on this site to no avail. All I know is if people aren't forced to bear the consequences of their actions, they will continue to make the easy choice that gets us nowhere.

Oh and on the DH issue - my JO squadron had 11 DHs at one point. ELEVEN. Please God, make the madness stop. I'm sure plenty of VP JOs would hop at the opportunity to spend their disassociated tours at the VFA/VAQ RAG to get qualified and then serve as the lame duck non-EP eligible DH in one of those squadrons. Shit, I'd have done that in a heartbeat. I would have been no better in the plane than the brand new JO, but I could definitely soak up the trash DH tasking that comes with the position. It would never get off the ground as an official policy (VP "needs" those bodies) but I wonder what it would do to manning and retention issues. Standing by to get flame sprayed by all the VFA/VAQ guys...

 

[HooverPilot]

Who is the Naval Aviation leadership you’re speaking of? Flag officers of local CO/XOs? Both? Not trying to be argumentative, just curious.

Which Flag officer said that?

I know you didn’t ask me, but I heard RDML Bull say it to the entire airwing in Kingsville when he was CNATRA. If you can believe it, a few months later we had the OBOGS strike and he had an early CoC.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

Sounds like the Ensign has got it all figured out.

Sounds like the typical douche that is resistant to change and is the problem.

 

[Jim123]

The list is long but distinguished.

From my experience the policies that drive retention, or a lack thereof...

You didn't even mention things like MICP or DTS.

 

[sevenhelmet]

It's funny, the only place I've really seen leadership truly put their people first is in the Reserves. And they don't really care if they promote anymore...makes you think.

There's a lot of truth to that. The up-or-out and move-on-as-soon-as-you-learn-how-to-do-the-job mindset of the military lends itself to this kind of problem.

I think I became a way better DH when I decided I was resigning from AD. Doesn't keep me in the job longer (thankfully), but it does help me keep things in perspective.

 

[squorch2]

Other fun things:

• PERS 43’s “We fixed the glitch” explanation for the first 2 O-4 bloodbaths
• Which happened after entire chains of command said “wow, that’s weird, I can’t tell you what’s happening with O-4 promotions
• Which happened after they dramatically cut flight hours

Couple all this with declining perceived CO authority, bad faith personnel actions (PTS, ERB), sequester/OCO funding shenanigans... the juice long since stopped being worth the squeeze.

 

[Python]

Since I’m not familiar with all of the politics, what was the cause of the o-4 bloodbath I keep hearing about (officials or anecdotally)?

 

[UInavy]

Since I’m not familiar with all of the politics, what was the cause of the o-4 bloodbath I keep hearing about (officials or anecdotally)?

Not to send you to another thread, but a good chunk of it was hashed out (probably not to anyone’s satisfaction) here:

FY-15 ADHSB

So, this years ADHSB results are out. Anyone we know get selected? I can't really believe this hasn't been a topic of discussion yet... http://www.public.navy.mil/bupers-npc/boards/screenboards/aviation/Documents/FY15 ADHSB Selects_1.PDF

www.airwarriors.com

 

[Jim123]

Since I’m not familiar with all of the politics, what was the cause of the o-4 bloodbath I keep hearing about (officials or anecdotally)?

The official response from the flags was the ensign salute.

(The big ol' "I dunno" shrug, since urban dictionary doesn't seem to have this one.)

 

[SlickAg]

Since I’m not familiar with all of the politics, what was the cause of the o-4 bloodbath I keep hearing about (officials or anecdotally)?

After the FY-15 board, when a fleet EP and shore EP wasn’t guaranteed to make one an O-4 from some communities, they chalked it up to the fact that the individual wasn’t a FRS or weapons school type (with the unsaid part being that the person therefore clearly wasn’t deserving of the rank to begin with).

After the FY-16 board that was basically nearly as bad as FY-15 they said they hadn’t done a good enough job of briefing our records to the board and that it was hard for the SWOs to understand why an O-3 didn’t have DH-type fitreps yet. Even though it was a requirement to be an O-4 select in order to screen for DH.

I don't have any stats to back up the exodus theory (which I don't necessarily discount), but I'd love to see them if you do.

@Brett327 this is a quote from the above-mentioned thread. Is the proof in the pudding? Or is it still up for debate.

 

[Brett327]

Or is it still up for debate.

I'm not sure what you're asking, or what debate you're referring to. Five years ago, the exodus to the airlines was new and we were all trying to understand (quantify) it. Today we know a lot more.

 

[SlickAg]

I'm not sure what you're asking, or what debate you're referring to. Five years ago, the exodus to the airlines was new and we were all trying to understand (quantify) it. Today we know a lot more.

I should've been more specific/picked a better quote but my skills weren't quite up to the task I guess. I included a post of yours from that 2014 thread below.

@Recovering LSO said this about the VAQ world

Sort of and not really. The bigger issue is that this is the first year (in a while) to reflect another 1310 exodus to the airlines. The FAA age change, as we all knew at the time, was going to take a few years to show itself within the ranks - that time is now. The number of actual bodies to fill DH spots is pretty fixed year to year. When you have so few 1310s,

...it makes sense that you would see a lot more 1320s selected.


The VAQ community has some SERIOUS 1310 manning problems to address over the next 3-5 years. I suspect the same is true for VFA - I just don't know it to be fact.

@EODDave chimed in with this tidbit about the VFA struggles.

For VFA pilots, the screen board is there in name only. If you made O4, then you are a DH or you get out. And on that subject, word on the street is that about half of the 1310 VFA types that screened for DH turned it down. VFA 1320's not so much. Looks like approx 50 percent screen rate. Of the 12 WSO VFA types that screened for DH, 2 said no thank you. Not sure how the rest of Naval Aviation is doing, but the VFA community is in a tail spin. Making some popcorn and watching the train wreck unfold in slow motion. Looks like the perfect storm has hit.

Completely agree. The question is, what tools does NPC or Big Navy have at its disposal to change what is likely a short term retention problem? I understand all the complaints about the state of our culture in Naval Aviation, but we need to be realistic about the institution's ability to change. Maybe some baby steps are in order on that front (remember, little victories), and that's probably all any of us can do to nudge this ship back toward a happier place.

I guess I was asking if in your opinion the current retention struggle is statistically relevant or if this whole thing is just overblown melodrama. Do you still think this is a short-term issue? Because I do think the institution has changed; just not for the better. I'm not sure I'd say 2019 is better than 2014, but then again it's not really my fight anymore.

It seems to me like the VFA and VAQ DH numbers weren't looking great even in 2014...if some dudes rambling on an internet forum were able to figure out there was an issue...why was Big Navy so asleep at the wheel?