Leaving Vietnam vs AFG

[Brett327]

Are you prepared to go on the record that everyone will get out by August 31st?

That’s not my role. I’m just pointing out the holes in your argument. I have no way of knowing one way or another… just like you.

 

[Brett327]

Estimating the maximum amount of Americans in the region, adding a buffer for uncertainty, and determining how many resources it would take to evacuate in a week isn't rocket surgery.

Oh, I see you’ve sobered up. It’s certainly rocket surgery if you don’t know the number of people that need to be moved, which none of us does.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

My point being, you don’t know the answer to that question, so pontificating about whether or not we have the capacity to airlift that number of people out in 7 days is not particularly useful. It’s just uninformed speculation.

Did you expect things to collapse there to the point where we had planes taxiing through mobs of panicked people with people falling to their deaths as planes took off? Perhaps the current administration and senior military leadership don’t deserve the benefit of the doubt after spending the last six months focusing on mythical extremism.

If they could be trusted to execute a plan, why have they already fucked it away beyond the existing profanity’s ability to describe?

 

[Spekkio]

It’s certainly rocket surgery if you don’t know the number of people that need to be moved, which none of us does.

You don't need to know that number. As a notional example, let's say that we estimate there's 5,000 people left in Afghanistan. Then you say oh, there's probably some buffer on there, so we can be 99.99% confident that there are fewer than 9,000 people in Afghanistan. Can we move 9,000 people by August 31st?

So yes, I agree that we don't know if there's 5,256 or 5,727 people there. But that's a red herring.

 

[Brett327]

You don't need to know that number. As a notional example, let's say that we estimate there's 5,000 people left in Afghanistan. Then you say oh, there's probably some buffer on there, so we can be 99.99% confident that there are fewer than 9,000 people in Afghanistan. Can we move 9,000 people by August 31st?

So yes, I agree that we don't know if there's 5,256 or 5,727 people there. But that's a red herring.

What if the number is 200, or 20,000? You’re presuming a certain range based on zero factual information. Unless you have a rough idea, and I don’t think that you do, then you’re just speculating… which is stupid.

 

[wink]

That’s not my role. I’m just pointing out the holes in your argument. I have no way of knowing one way or another… just like you.

I don't know. I never said I did. It is an opinion I was comfortable going on the record with in AW land. I'll take my lumps if I am wrong. I will be very happy to be wrong.

 

[Spekkio]

What if the number is 200, or 20,000? You’re presuming a certain range based on zero factual information. Unless you have a rough idea, and I don’t think that you do, then you’re just speculating… which is stupid.

I think that the federal government can get a reasonable close-in estimate of how many people it's paying to work in Afghanistan. In fact, they estimate between 5-10k people remain and can airlift 9k per day, so the mission to complete evaluation by Aug 31 is feasible. The issue is not knowing if there are any stragglers.

 

[Brett327]

I think that the federal government can get a reasonable close-in estimate of how many people it's paying to work in Afghanistan. In fact, they estimate between 5-10k people remain and can airlift 9k per day, so the mission to complete evaluation by Aug 31 is feasible. The issue is not knowing if there are any stragglers.

I don’t think you’re paying attention to what is being discussed.

 

[taxi1]

I was pretty surprised when they said there were upwards of 15,000 US civilians in country.

Doing what? Located where? They’re not all gov employees.

 

[taxi1]

From Afghan General, interesting article...

Opinion | I Commanded Afghan Troops This Year. We Were Betrayed.

It pains me to see President Biden and other Western officials blame the Afghan Army for collapsing but not mention why that happened.

www.nytimes.com

So why did the Afghan military collapse? The answer is threefold.

First, former President Donald Trump’s February 2020 peace deal with the Taliban in Doha doomed us. It put an expiration date on American interest in the region. Second, we lost contractor logistics and maintenance support critical to our combat operations. Third, the corruption endemic in Mr. Ghani’s government that flowed to senior military leadership and long crippled our forces on the ground irreparably hobbled us.

 

[Hair Warrior]

From Afghan General, interesting article...

Opinion | I Commanded Afghan Troops This Year. We Were Betrayed.

It pains me to see President Biden and other Western officials blame the Afghan Army for collapsing but not mention why that happened.

www.nytimes.com

So why did the Afghan military collapse? The answer is threefold.

First, former President Donald Trump’s February 2020 peace deal with the Taliban in Doha doomed us. It put an expiration date on American interest in the region. Second, we lost contractor logistics and maintenance support critical to our combat operations. Third, the corruption endemic in Mr. Ghani’s government that flowed to senior military leadership and long crippled our forces on the ground irreparably hobbled us.

These might be three, but not the only three. As mentioned earlier in this thread:

-Afghanistan shouldn’t be one contiguous country, it should be three or four smaller ones, divided by language/ ethnicity/ natural terrain

-We shouldn’t have modeled the ANSDF on the US military, including our rely-on-many-moving-parts way of war and leaving behind aircraft/ weapons/ comms gear/ biometrics devices and expecting it to work

-We shouldn’t have stayed that long

-We should have recognized how deeply rooted the Taliban were within Pashtun groups, and cut a deal diplomatically soon after we killed UBL; we were never going to be able to eradicate the Taliban

-We shouldn’t have taken our eyes off the goal by waging so many land wars at once

and last but not least: Afghans have historically switched sides to the winner. Many fighters switched sides multiple times. A few committed green on blue. Listen to Don Bolduc (green beret Brig Gen) on Jocko for examples from 2001-02. That force was never going to hold up to the Taliban long term once we left.

Forgot to add- foreign backers kept pouring money, men, and materiel into the Taliban. That never got addressed, and now it’s accelerating obviously.

 

[OscarMyers]

First time in my life I’d be checking for any RAIM outages...
“Landing in Kabul with no Landing Lights, ILS only comes on at 500 feet”

https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/pb8p3o

 

[ABMD]

Don’t you think it’s just as likely that the USG made the determination that they could get everything done that needed to be done before publicly announcing that date? The air bridge is now moving a significant number of people every day. Presumably 7 more days will be sufficient, unless you have information to the contrary?

I know this got fucked away at the outset for various reasons, but the operation seems to be working currently.

Kevin McCarthy: There is 'no possible way' we can evacuate Americans from Afghanistan by Aug 31 | Fox News

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said during a Tuesday news conference that there is “no way” President Biden will be able to evacuate all of the Americans currently trapped in Afghanistan by the Aug. 31 deadline.

www.foxnews.com

I know you'll discount the source, but I'm sure the House Minority leader has just a bit more information than you do on this topic and apparently he's not confident that we can get all Americans out by Aug. 31*.

*could be political theatre, but given what other officials are saying publicly from calls and emails from citizens in country, I doubt it is.

 

[taxi1]

These might be three, but not the only three.

Sure, and the author has a particular perspective. But it remains interesting, to include the fact that he wrote the editorial.

-We shouldn’t have modeled the ANSDF on the US military, including our rely-on-many-moving-parts way of war and leaving behind aircraft/ weapons/ comms gear/ biometrics devices and expecting it to work

You could argue that it was a bug, or a feature. Have them beholden to us?

When I read about how they were lost without our 1st world systems I think of our mantra for a different continent, "African solutions to African problems." Might have been worthwhile to use the same mantra in Afghanistan.

 

[Brett327]

Kevin McCarthy: There is 'no possible way' we can evacuate Americans from Afghanistan by Aug 31 | Fox News

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said during a Tuesday news conference that there is “no way” President Biden will be able to evacuate all of the Americans currently trapped in Afghanistan by the Aug. 31 deadline.

www.foxnews.com

I know you'll discount the source, but I'm sure the House Minority leader has just a bit more information than you do on this topic and apparently he's not confident that we can get all Americans out by Aug. 31*.

*could be political theatre, but given what other officials are saying publicly from calls and emails from citizens in country, I doubt it is.

You’re also not paying attention to what we’re discussing.