Leaving Vietnam vs AFG

[picklesuit]

I don't give a shit about 'conflict.' I give a shit about the ability to inflict considerable damage on the U.S. We're spending billions of dollars and thousands of lives to fuck around with criminals who have very limited ability to reach out and touch us because of a revenge mission from 20 years ago.


Since you like sucking the teet of senior officers, and disregard anyone's opinion who is junior in rank to you, I'll just leave this here.

And in case you think he's being alarmist, the concerns are repeated by the current USSOUTHCOM...with the additional concern of PRC influence in the region.

But I do appreciate your hubris that I'm too stupid to be aware of and read such documents.

As someone who reads a lot of these documents too, will have to concur with @Brett327 that ranking the threat from SOUTHCOM above that from CENTCOM in terms of “considerable damage to US and allies” is wrong.

Yes, every General/Admiral who runs SOUTHCOM fights for their slice of the funding pie with your linked documents…the ones that matter are the NDS and NMS, both of which are much more concerned about threats from the CENTCOM AOR than anything coming from SOUTHCOM.

Where we spend our money backs that up.

If anything, I’d be willing to discuss the influence on AFRICOM vice SOUTHCOM, as I think they rank much more closely on the expenditure scale. This year, AFRICOM increased their funding, while SOUTHCOM decreased theirs…

There is currently little to no existential threat coming from South America…the same can’t be said for China in INDOPACOM, with a regional hegemonic threat from Russia in EUCOM/IP/AFRICOM/CENTCOM areas.

While there is definitely interest in investment from both in S.A., the majority of their effort is elsewhere.

Before you accuse me of “teet sucking” I've hit terminal velocity WRT rank, and have been/am a bit off the beaten career path.

 

[Brett327]

Pickle knows what’s up.

 

[Spekkio]

As someone who reads a lot of these documents too, will have to concur with @Brett327 that ranking the threat from SOUTHCOM above that from CENTCOM in terms of “considerable damage to US and allies” is wrong.

Yes, every General/Admiral who runs SOUTHCOM fights for their slice of the funding pie with your linked documents…the ones that matter are the NDS and NMS, both of which are much more concerned about threats from the CENTCOM AOR than anything coming from SOUTHCOM.

Where we spend our money backs that up.

A strategic mistake, IMO, and the ire of at least a half dozen U.S. governors. In the last 10 years, is an American more likely to be murdered by a terrorist attack or by an illegal immigrant from South America who turned to gangs? Then there are the 2nd and 3rd order economic effects of mass migration. The political and military instability of the countries south of us is a more significant and direct impact on our lives. How many U.S. governors are criticizing Presidential administrations for spending too little attention and resources on fucking around in Afghanistan?

There is currently little to no existential threat coming from South America…the same can’t be said for China in INDOPACOM, with a regional hegemonic threat from Russia in EUCOM/IP/AFRICOM/CENTCOM areas.

I wouldn't rank SOUTCHOM above either EUCOM or INDOPACOM.

Before you accuse me of “teet sucking” I've hit terminal velocity WRT rank, and have been/am a bit off the beaten career path.

You have more of an angry, disgruntled flair and not a haughty, sarcastic flair when you post, so it's all good.

 

[Hair Warrior]

I’m genuinely curious whether some bad actors from AQ Classic will come out of the woodwork once the Taliban are firmly in charge, only to be on the receiving end of a Hellfire. In that vein, I would imagine it would be fairly easy to “influence” Taliban behavior with a few well placed strikes. They’re going to be much easier to reach out and touch now that they’re the establishment in Afghanistan.

Why would they come out of the woodwork? They can openly be part of Afghanistan’s “legitimate” governing apparatus now, as civilians (i.e. nonmilitary targets).

Why would they be on the receiving end of a Hellfire? Now, they can “lawfully” administer Afghanistan’s new judicial code (sharia) which includes lawful killings as due punishment for those found guilty of certain crimes. That includes rounding up any nonbelievers they find. And their country’s new laws allow for it.

If we send an AGM at a sovereign country’s civilian judge who is merely carrying out their appointed duties under their legal system, that would make us the aggressor. AQ/IS merely needs to blend into Afghanistan’s new government. The UN isn’t likely to authorize a new Afghanistan resolution over internal human rights abuses, as China and/or Russia will just veto it.

Even if we acted unilaterally, where are these Hellfires coming from? What country (either from their airfield, or use of airspace) would let us launch from or overfly them with armed sorties into Afghanistan to drop ordnance?

I hate the Taliban but I fear they are going to make it pretty hard for anyone to dislodge them this time. They now have help and money from China, and to a lesser extent, Russia. That includes public relations help. I don’t underestimate their ability to play a better diplomatic or informational game than they did in 2001 in order to deny/delay new US interventionism. They can make us look like a bigger stronger bully who promised we’d leave them alone, then didn’t.

 

[taxi1]

I hate the Taliban but I fear they are going to make it pretty hard for anyone to dislodge them this time. They now have help and money from China, and to a lesser extent, Russia.

It's all about Pakistan.

Pakistan let us fly over their territory and ship goods via ground, while simultaneously giving the Taliban sanctuary.

The Afghan-Pak relationship is going to be the one to watch.

 

[Brett327]

Why would they come out of the woodwork? They can openly be part of Afghanistan’s “legitimate” governing apparatus now, as civilians (i.e. nonmilitary targets).

Why would they be on the receiving end of a Hellfire? Now, they can “lawfully” administer Afghanistan’s new judicial code (sharia) which includes lawful killings as due punishment for those found guilty of certain crimes. That includes rounding up any nonbelievers they find. And their country’s new laws allow for it.

If we send an AGM at a sovereign country’s civilian judge who is merely carrying out their appointed duties under their legal system, that would make us the aggressor. AQ/IS merely needs to blend into Afghanistan’s new government. The UN isn’t likely to authorize a new Afghanistan resolution over internal human rights abuses, as China and/or Russia will just veto it.

Even if we acted unilaterally, where are these Hellfires coming from? What country (either from their airfield, or use of airspace) would let us launch from or overfly them with armed sorties into Afghanistan to drop ordnance?

I hate the Taliban but I fear they are going to make it pretty hard for anyone to dislodge them this time. They now have help and money from China, and to a lesser extent, Russia. That includes public relations help. I don’t underestimate their ability to play a better diplomatic or informational game than they did in 2001 in order to deny/delay new US interventionism. They can make us look like a bigger stronger bully who promised we’d leave them alone, then didn’t.

I don’t even know where to start. This post is bafflingly naïve.

 

[wink]

It is being reported that the Administration has decided they WILL be completely out of Afghanistan by Aug 31st. No qualifications based on the success of American and SIVs evacuation.

 

[scoolbubba]

It is being reported that the Administration has decided they WILL be completely out of Afghanistan by Aug 31st. No qualifications based on the success of American and SIVs evacuation.

Neat.

 

[taxi1]

It is being reported that the Administration has decided they WILL be completely out of Afghanistan by Aug 31st. No qualifications based on the success of American and SIVs evacuation.

So we say we're staying, and they say f**** you, what then?

The Taliban won the war well ahead of schedule, unfortunately, and is holding all of the short hairs, so to speak. It'd take them nothing to screw us over in ways we can barely imagine.

Now is not the time for chest thumping. It's the time for quiet, private negotiation.

What they likely want is recognition. We want to reoccupy the embassy. My prediction is that is where this goes, in time.

 

[wink]

It is not chest thumping to tell whoever the hell is calling themselves a real government that we are going to recover our own people. No respectable legitimate government would hinder that. And in any case, chest thumping is not necessary if it is already established that we have the will and power to recover our own people regardless of the resistance. I am afraid that is no longer understood around the world and certainly not in Afghanistan. Whatever action we must take to get all our people out doesn't have to jeopardize the Taliban's ultimate control over the country, but it might hurt. Their call.

 

[taxi1]

And in any case, chest thumping is not necessary if it is already established that we have the will and power to recover our own people regardless of the resistance.

It would be incredibly easy to shut down that airport.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

It would be incredibly easy to shut down that airport.

Would have been easy to come up with a plan to get our civilians out

 

[Brett327]

It is not chest thumping to tell whoever the hell is calling themselves a real government that we are going to recover our own people.

Don’t you think it’s just as likely that the USG made the determination that they could get everything done that needed to be done before publicly announcing that date? The air bridge is now moving a significant number of people every day. Presumably 7 more days will be sufficient, unless you have information to the contrary?

I know this got fucked away at the outset for various reasons, but the operation seems to be working currently.

 

[taxi1]

Would have been easy to come up with a plan to get our civilians out

Where are they at, anyway? Are they spread all over the country, or just Kabul? a bunch in Mazar Sharif? Kandahar?

 

[Treetop Flyer]

Where are they at, anyway? Are they spread all over the country, or just Kabul? a bunch in Mazar Sharif? Kandahar?

Good question. Perhaps someone should have thought about that.