We’ve discussed Turchin before, he still maintains his typical Russian gloom. I don’t think he is remotely on spot because he consistently fails to engage the nuances between a society, a culture, and the nation-state. Societies are the weak link in the grouping because they are prone to grinding reorganization (something I believe we are seeing now) but cultures and nations are quite fixed and remarkably resilient. So, is American society changing? You bet, this is our largest period of change since the 1980’s and before that it was the late 1960’s. Did it collapse, no, but everyone at the time “felt” it might. I also disagree with his definition of elite as meaning a college degree.
I do think Silver is on to something, and I think it is good news for the country. Where he slightly misses the point is by conflating a “college education” as one thing. Many DSA types are extra-soft degree types typically of the “Insert Sub-Group Title” Studies type who thought the work force would fit their value, not the other way around where employers search for workers to fit their needs. I don’t consider this a case of “elite overproduction,” because those college graduates who believe the DSA will fix their problems aren’t actually elite, their are just papered (and perhaps a bit pampered). I don’t see legions of biologists, engineering, and science types running toward the DSA, certainly blue collar workers aren’t. This is the critical difference and I think will keep the DSA loud, noticeable, but mostly on the fringes of power in future elections. My big question is, will they break off from the democrats if obvious support isn’t forthcoming?