The SHOW: Airlines still a "good gig"??

[mad dog]

So, I have to ask, is your screen name a football reference or are you against the once famous twin-engined ASW jet that may, or may not, be brought back from the grave?

I’m going to make a guess [I’m probably wrong] that he’s a previous NWA [and now DAL] dude and is referencing the fact that the Minnesota Vikings have never won a Super Bowl.

 

[Deleted member 24525]

Look at it another way… When you join the Navy reserves, you have two years of “immunity“ to mobilize.

but the Navy doesn’t wait two years and then give you orders, they do it 6 months to a year prior to your 2 year mark so that you are mobilized that day...And stuck, because now you have orders.

essentially the company is skirting the intent of the CARES ACT....

which is why many of us “libtards” were pushing so hard for strings to be attached to the money.

 

[Treetop Flyer]

Look at it another way… When you join the Navy reserves, you have two years of “immunity“ to mobilize.

but the Navy doesn’t wait two years and then give you orders, they do it 6 months to a year prior to your 2 year mark so that you are mobilized that day...And stuck, because now you have orders.

essentially the company is skirting the intent of the CARES ACT....

which is why many of us “libtards” were pushing so hard for strings to be attached to the money.

I’m certainly no fan of furloughs or some of the other tactics, but if they pay what the contract says until Oct 1st, they aren’t skirting anything.

 

[Jim123]

@insanebikerboy , something that may not be obvious is that each pilot domicile has to have the same number* of captain slots as first officers for each kind of airplane that operates there. Let's say you're 50.00001% seniority and you want to be a captain instead of a first officer, then basically there has to be somebody in the top half who would rather be an FO. And so on...

There are good reasons to be an overly senior FO (mostly lots of say so in your own schedule) just like there are also good reasons to be an overly junior captain (pay for one).

The same thing is true when one base is more desirable than another, although what is desirable to you and your circumstances might not be the same as for me.

There are work rules for what happens if you're already a captain but somebody senior to you wants to be a captain in your base, or if you're an FO in Springfield and an FO from Shelbyville wants to move to your base. For the most part it's based on fairness, common sense, and waiting until there is an opening (the details are up to the management and the union to agree on).

Displacement is a different animal from normal base/airplane/seat transfers, as you're realizing.

Another obvious-but-maybe-not-obvious, everybody's seniority number is easy to look up on the company website/intranet. It's very much like looking up anyone else on the lineal list of naval officers (or FLTMPS stalking someone, there are a few places to get the information).


* It's actually not exactly a 50-50 split, just close enough for this discussion.

 

[Deleted member 24525]

I’m certainly no fan of furloughs or some of the other tactics, but if they pay what the contract says until Oct 1st, they aren’t skirting anything.

they’re skirting the spirit of the law. As I stated, as did @HAL Pilot

But they’re also reducing other non pilot work groups hours that aren’t pay protected like pilots are...which also skirts the spirit/and or intent.

 

[Deleted member 24525]

Furloughs are expensive for a company. Essentially this gave United 6 months free furlough/displacement planning at the expense of the taxpayer.

It means they are planning to furlough. The airline bailout stipulated no furloughs until October 1, 2020. But it did not say the airlines could position for a furlough.

Furloughs come from the bottom. The displacement bid reduces the number of pilots in the various fleets. Those that aren’t being furloughed have to be retrained if their seat went away. Normally this makes furloughs uneconomical if the reduction in flying is short term since the retraining needs to happen before the furloughed pilot hits the street. This is a months long process. However this time the airlines got a free 6 month period to retrain pilots so they can boot them at the first possible date.

Management never lets an opportunity go to waste. While they are meeting the letter of the law wrt the bailout, they aren’t really meeting the spirit with this trick.

Hopefully a vaccine and treatment comes quickly and the public feels safe to start traveling again. Different airlines have a different thought when this will start happening again. United is planning on a 3+ year turn around. Management at Hawaiian thinks we will be at our preCOVID flying by early to mid 2021. We might have some furloughs but I don’t think they will be as big (percentage of pilots wise) or as long as United is planning.

You can also expect some sort of early retirement packages at most majors (like AA has already offered). This will lessen furloughs a little too.

 

[FrankTheTank]

Fedex has had 3 new hire classes since the virus. Apply with us and live the Vampire Life.

 

[wiseguy04]

How much will mandatory yearly retirements (500-1000 per year at most legacies) factor into the scaled down workforce? Seems like furloughs would not be able to be sustained long term.

 

[Deleted member 24525]

How much will mandatory yearly retirements (500-1000 per year at most legacies) factor into the scaled down workforce? Seems like furloughs would not be able to be sustained long term.

Depends on the company… American has more retirees, I think they have 900 a year, delta has slightly less, United has 4 to 600, Southwest has slightly less.

so yes, you do lose some by attrition, and you can’t cut 1000 pilots overnight... but it also depends on what the airline’s desired end state is.
So if United wants to come back as a domestic airline, with no widebody flying, and much smaller, then those retirements are really not an issue because those jobs that are in existence now, will not be in existence in five years (again depending on the end state). If United’s end goal is a status quo, then yeah those retirements will definitely affect the duration.

but @wiseguy04 whole furloughs aren’t meant to be sustainable, many people were out for 7-8 years.
Some were furloughed twice, 9-11, and 2008

 

[Deleted member 24525]

Depends on the company… American has more retirees, I think they have 900 a year, delta has slightly less, United has 4 to 600, Southwest has slightly less.

so yes, you do lose some by attrition, and you can’t cut 1000 pilots overnight... but it also depends on what the airline’s desired end state is.
So if United wants to come back as a domestic airline, with no widebody flying, and much smaller, then those retirements are really not an issue because those jobs that are in existence now, will not be in existence in five years (again depending on the end state). If United’s end goal is a status quo, then yeah those retirements will definitely affect the duration.

but @wiseguy04 whole furloughs aren’t meant to be sustainable, many people were out for 7-8 years.
Some were furloughed twice, 9-11, and 2008

*while not whole

 

[neverVikings]

Let me offer another view for InsaneBikerBoy:
Let's say UAL furloughs 2000 pilots on 1 Oct. The bulk of those junior pilots are in the right seat of the Airbus and 737.
So if they are furloughed and gone, how do you fly those trips? Answer: you can't until you train their replacements. Where would those replacements come from? They are the more senior pilots that are moving "down" as their higher-paying fleet-and-seat is reduced.

This "displacement bid" is an early way to drive those more senior pilots downhill, into the training center now... and have them ready to fly in their new fleet when 1 Oct happens.

you nailed it!

 

[wink]

All I know is that AA is granting a lot of paid leaves to avoid furloughs. I aim to do my part for you junior cry babies and get out of the way. Have a bid in for a permanent leave at about 2/3 pay until I turn 65. I am just a giver. That is what I do. I dropped 10-20 hours a month to other guys for many years. I must have supported more boat payments, new golf clubs, and private school tuition than any pilot in LAX. Cuz I am a giver. Really hope I can give up my number to one of ya.

 

[sevenhelmet]

How fast can airlines de-mothball airplanes as demand comes back? What are the challenges with doing so- assuming the jets were parked for somewhere between 3 and 6 months?

I'm guessing the answer is "very fast", but I'm genuinely curious. I'm sure it's faster than taking a squadron from maintenance phase into TSTA... ?

 

[Griz882]

Which airlines may not survive this? A requiem for the lost...


Who wouldn’t want two of everything?


Then TWA raised the game!


Marlex...who doesn’t miss Marlex?

The sad part, I am not that old and I have flown on all the airlines above as well as Piedmont, PSA, and even NWA!

 

[sevenhelmet]

Growing up, we used to fly TWA to the UK annually to visit my mother's family... on planes that looked like this. Some of the most vivid memories I have of those trips are lengthy delays at ORD.

I bought a TWA coffee mug from the pilot store when I went to my AA interview in early March. It's now a souvenir from my brief-but-eventful "airline career". ?