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The SHOW: Airlines still a "good gig"??

scoolbubba

Brett327 gargles ballsacks
pilot
Contributor
While things have stabilized a bit lately I've known several Guard folks who've ended up on the short end of the stick when their units switched aircraft, sometimes to unmanned, or simply went away in a few cases. Start out flying F-16's, switch to C-21's then end up flying MQ-9's. You can switch units/states but you would be competing against others in the same boat for a diminishing number of spots, not a great scenario if you are too junior or too senior for what the remaining units are looking for.

Life is risk. Act accordingly. You'd still be accruing fixed wing time at a regional if you were hired on already, and orders are a way to pay the bills on ramen FO money at a regional.
 

Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
While things have stabilized a bit lately I've known several Guard folks who've ended up on the short end of the stick when their units switched aircraft, sometimes to unmanned, or simply went away in a few cases. Start out flying F-16's, switch to C-21's then end up flying MQ-9's. You can switch units/states but you would be competing against others in the same boat for a diminishing number of spots, not a great scenario if you are too junior or too senior for what the remaining units are looking for.
This is why you go to the Army Guard. Every state has helicopters!
 

Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
Except helicopters aren’t a ticket to The Show.
That’s why I said earlier to get your civilian ticket on the side! If you fly for guard and get your fixed wing training at a college or university...the guard picks up the tab!
 

squorch2

he will die without safety brief
pilot
Y’all aren’t seeing the RFPs I am - ones that call for 50% travel or less.

Firms don’t want to pay for travel if you can get comparable performance remote.

Don’t take my word for it though.

 

scoolbubba

Brett327 gargles ballsacks
pilot
Contributor
I'll believe that if 2 years after our vaccine efforts start, business travel is still in the shitter. Until then, I've got just as much credibility writing that article.
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
I'll believe that if 2 years after our vaccine efforts start, business travel is still in the shitter. Until then, I've got just as much credibility writing that article.
The article was also written in August. I’m not super bullish on business travel, but a quick glance at recent market trends would indicate that analysts think air travel will be around in some significant capacity, otherwise the airline stocks would be in free fall.

Also, I am curious if the WN WARN notices are serious or if it’s a negotiating tactic.

Lastly, the reservist (or TR/guardsman) plus airline job would be sooooooo much better than straight active duty Navy right now. The amount of dudes who are still planning on punching after their commitment is still a little surprising to me. They were all so fed up with all the active duty to begin with, now add on the covid insanity and guys are still heading to the exits. I’m on a recall right now and it’s not a terrible situation, but I’m definitely counting down the days.
 
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scoolbubba

Brett327 gargles ballsacks
pilot
Contributor
WN issued WARN emails today with an early April furlough date. Not a furlough notice, but a step in the process.

Labor relations 101. Introduce a little fear, uncertainty, and doubt into the equation. Most think it's a bluff. We will see.
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
WN issued WARN emails today with an early April furlough date. Not a furlough notice, but a step in the process.

Labor relations 101. Introduce a little fear, uncertainty, and doubt into the equation. Most think it's a bluff. We will see.
I just edited my post. Knew they happened, was trying to get a gauge of how likely it was.

Since basically every ALPA pax carrier reached some sort of agreement, and American has already furloughed, WN is basically the last man standing in terms of "threatening" both as a negotiating tactic with their labor groups and also Congress. Of course, the airlines have heavily furloughed various other labor groups. I'm not sure if CARES 2 or whatever payroll support would get already-furloughed folks back on property. Also, unless there's some pretty favorable terms, I'm not sure it's in every airlines' best financial interest to take the loans.
 

phrogdriver

More humble than you would understand
pilot
Super Moderator
The article was also written in August. I’m not super bullish on business travel, but a quick glance at recent market trends would indicate that analysts think air travel will be around in some significant capacity, otherwise the airline stocks would be in free fall.

Also, I am curious if the WN WARN notices are serious or if it’s a negotiating tactic.

Lastly, the reservist (or TR/guardsman) plus airline job would be sooooooo much better than straight active duty Navy right now. The amount of dudes who are still planning on punching after their commitment is still a little surprising to me. They were all so fed up with all the active duty to begin with, now add on the covid insanity and guys are still heading to the exits. I’m on a recall right now and it’s not a terrible situation, but I’m definitely counting down the days.

Is business travel dead? No. Some things will always need to be done in person, especially in the developing world and in some relationship-based cultures.

Will it come back to where it was before? Hell no. Many businesses have realized that many of their very expensive short-notice tickets can be replaced by almost free videocons.

Business travel is such a big part of the margin of many carriers that the business model is going to change, like it or not.
 

wink

War Hoover NFO.
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Business travel is such a big part of the margin of many carriers that the business model is going to change, like it or not.
This. Vast percentage of revenue at the legacy carriers comes from not just business, but contracts for travel with major corporations. Even SWA makes earns a huge amount of revenue from business fliers. On the other hand, airlines that rely primarily on leisure travel may not even survive the pandemic, especially if the new administration "listens to the scientist".
 

ChuckMK23

FERS and TSP contributor!
pilot
This. Vast percentage of revenue at the legacy carriers comes from not just business, but contracts for travel with major corporations. Even SWA makes earns a huge amount of revenue from business fliers. On the other hand, airlines that rely primarily on leisure travel may not even survive the pandemic, especially if the new administration "listens to the scientist".

I really thought I had an idea about how we would get back to normal but now I am very unsure. As a passenger you put yourself in jeopardy for the slightest deviation in behavior and risk being banned. States are implementing their own protocols for even domestic travel (California checking test status as a condition to even board for a California destination). I've heard that TSA is readying protocols to validate immunization or testing status for domestic airline travel. POTUS-Elect is setting expectation of at least 100 days of restrictions post 1/21/2021. Europe is telling US citizens to stay away. I have good friends that work for GE, J&J, JP Morgan/Chase, P&G and they all went from high end airline and hotel status to zero travel. High value knowledge workers are home. Maybe for good - I don't know.

That said I was talking to one of our reservists today, United dude who flies 787. He talked about the boom in cargo ops with empty pax seats but lots and lots of cargo.

Private aviation and 135 is booming. The people who have the means are traveling for work and pleasure in an isolated mode. I know multiple folks who retired from airlines that were lured back to fly King Airs, Citations, and PC-12's. GA and training is booming too. Our club aircraft are booked solid and people are taking trips at every opportunity - even if it means getting there at 120 Kts.

Its really unclear to me what normal will be like when it happens.
 
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