From my limited experience with the CAP...
OK, for real, the first shore tour after your first fleet tour isn't the end-all-be-all for a career, but staying with your community is a definite plus. The TRACOM used to be death-on-wheels, but that's changing. An associate IP with the wing probably won't hurt if you get good paper ranked against others. If you're the only O-3 on staff, work hard and make friends in high places.
I survived a first shore in the TRACOM and back to a DH tour in Hornets and eventually O-5, but failed to screen for a squadron. Did the TRACOM tour hurt? Maybe, maybe not. When your record is stacked against everyone elses and they all have the same numbers and words, discriminators start to get pulled out. My feeling now is that Navy TRACOM won't kill a career and offers lots of flying and fulfillment. An exchange tour to an AF training unit would probably be hard to overcome career-wise.