Solving the Navy's problems one RC squadron at a time

[red_stang65]

Pretty sure it’d be voluntary on the SELRES side. Admiral Mustin is on a mission to kibosh IAs because he can’t surge forces in an OPLAN scenario when 20-plus percent of them are in post-MOB dwell.

Doesn’t help that the Navy Reserve as a whole, and CNAFR in particular, are the smallest they’ve ever been in their history—both are about 40% smaller than they were in 2000, and getting smaller each year. But that’s a whole other story…

 

[Uncle Fester]

Doesn’t help that the Navy Reserve as a whole, and CNAFR in particular, are the smallest they’ve ever been in their history—both are about 40% smaller than they were in 2000, and getting smaller each year. But that’s a whole other story…

The attitude of the current leadership - both AC and Res - sort of reminds me of a realtor I had who was trying to sell my house in the immediate blast radius of the housing bubble burst, ca early 2007. She'd had her license for just a few years - ie, when things were booming and you only had to stick a sign in the yard to get a dozen full-price cash offers - and had no idea what to do when the phone stopped ringing.

The AB and others have been in Flag positions during a time when the civilian job market has either been for the most part either hostile or benign. They hand-waved the airline hiring spree, then figured the pandemic would scare everyone into staying in uniform, then decided the best path to keeping folks in the Reserves was to slash billets and consolidate those that are left in Fleet concentration areas, where people may or may not live or have easy access to for drills. Oh and IAs for all my friends, and "mob to billet" so you don't even really get a choice of a grenade to jump on.

Decades of government-honed cynicism aside, I think a lot of us deep-down really want to believe the Nav makes certain people admirals for a reason. Even when it becomes glaringly obvious that they are faced with a manning crisis and don't really know what to do about it.

Good news is, ignore the problem long enough and eventually it becomes your relief's problem.

 

[wink]

I think a lot of us deep-down really want to believe the Nav makes certain people admirals for a reason.

The reason the vast majority of flag officers are there is because they exceled at their primary mission, war fighting and preparing for it (training). Sure, they have managed large organizations along the way, but nothing can really prepare one for managing all aspects of the Navy, and with a budget you have little control over and a meddling Congress. When you have been operational or training for over 20 years you have not been paying attention to years of trends and lessons learned that are know key to understanding a job you just walked into and will have for only a few years.

 

[sevenhelmet]

Good news is, ignore the problem long enough and eventually it becomes your relief's problem. View attachment 37696

This. And for every problem you try to fix, there will be a GS slow-rolling your solution to wait out your relief.

Admirals should have longer times in their billet, to promote buy-in. I've seen CSGs change after less than 18 months, which is ridiculous.

 

[Uncle Fester]

The reason the vast majority of flag officers are there is because they exceled at their primary mission, war fighting and preparing for it (training)...When you have been operational or training for over 20 years you have not been paying attention to years of trends and lessons learned that are know key to understanding a job you just walked into and will have for only a few years.

The Peter Principle is alive and well...

I don't disagree with your points, but at least on paper that's supposed to be the reason for all that time they spend at the War College, or PG School, EMBA programs, joint tours, etc etc etc, on the way up that Big Blue Ladder. And it's not to Jedi hand-wave away ("You don't see any JO retention problems...") manning and retention issues that are your explicit responsibility in a billet like AB.

I mean, I assume the overall answer is that acknowledging there's a problem within your portfolio as a senior Flag is tantamount to taking ownership of the problem. And one does not get to be a senior Flag by doing silly things like that.

For what it's worth, this isn't only a Naval phenomenon:

The Army doesn’t know why junior officers are leaving​

Big Army: "Why are JOs getting out of the Army?"
JOs: “Lack of autonomy/control over my present/future and poor leadership.”
Big Army: "Guess it'll forever be a mystery."

​

 

[sevenhelmet]

The Peter Principle is alive and well...

One of the things I have enjoyed about post-AD life is the ability to find a job I enjoy and am good at, and keep it.

 

[nittany03]

On the reserve side, the other thing is that the whole system for making O-6+ is incentivized towards those who can grind their asses off the most above and beyond their civ job. The people who rise to the top are the people who are willing to MOB once in every rank, take long-term ADOS, pay their own way sometimes literally across the country to get to that key command billet, spend multiple hours a week doing more work after work, and tolerate another decade of Kafkaesque NRC bullshit after becoming retirement eligible. And be fortunate enough to get into their 40s and 50s without any potential medical issues cropping up.

At some point, whether senior leadership realizes it or not, you basically have to decide whether you’re going to have a civilian 9-5 career or be a senior reservist. Or else be a GS, an airline pilot, or independently wealthy.

 

[IKE]

This. And for every problem you try to fix, there will be a GS slow-rolling your solution to wait out your relief.

Admirals should have longer times in their billet, to promote buy-in. I've seen CSGs change after less than 18 months, which is ridiculous.

I imagine this is why ACAT I PMs have a 48-mo commitment. Of course, many NAVAIR civilians have no problem waiting out 2 or 3 PMs.

 

[sevenhelmet]

At some point, whether senior leadership realizes it or not, you basically have to decide whether you’re going to have a civilian 9-5 career or be a senior reservist. Or else be a GS, an airline pilot, or independently wealthy.

I think they do realize it, and they don't care. You should be 100% as committed as they were, or you're useless.

I made peace with the fact that I'm a deadbeat O-5 reservist a long time ago.

 

[sevenhelmet]

I imagine this is why ACAT I PMs have a 48-mo commitment. Of course, many NAVAIR civilians have no problem waiting out 2 or 3 PMs.

Exactly.

 

[red_stang65]

Good news is, ignore the problem long enough and eventually it becomes your relief's problem.

Or, just look at every year of cuts as a system in and of itself—ignore the big picture as a whole. “Darn, lost a squadron this year.” Following year: “Darn, lost a squadron this year.” So on and so forth.

That is, until one day someone shows the whole picture of all the “it’s just one one squadron” cuts every year, and suddenly it’s like magic, “How’d you do that?! We had no idea!” Reminds me of the Magic Eye photos at the mall.

 

[Uncle Fester]

Or, just look at every year of cuts as a system in and of itself—ignore the big picture as a whole. “Darn, lost a squadron this year.” Following year: “Darn, lost a squadron this year.” So on and so forth.

That is, until one day someone shows the whole picture of all the “it’s just one one squadron” cuts every year, and suddenly it’s like magic, “How’d you do that?! We had no idea!” Reminds me of the Magic Eye photos at the mall.

View attachment 37704

Yep yep yep. I actually asked a question along these lines to VADM Mustin during an O-call during my last (as in, very last, before I hung it up) drill weekend. To the effect of, with all the resrons sundowning, or things like moving -209 from DC to NASWI, it's getting harder and harder for brownshoe Reservists to stay in the cockpit, especially if they want to fly tacair. That sort of seems counter to the objective of making the Reserves relevant to fighting a GPC war, is anything being done to address it? And his answer was basically, I don't see the problem. And that with three former resron COs or XOs in the room nodding along at the question.

So, "You dumb bastard, it's not a schooner, it's a sailboat."

 

[SynixMan]

I think they do realize it, and they don't care. You should be 100% as committed as they were, or you're useless.

I made peace with the fact that I'm a deadbeat O-5 reservist a long time ago.

Hell, I'm planning on being a terminal O-4 in the reserves. Soaking up a silly CO billet as an O-5 sounds like shit and I don't want to commute to a flying gig.

 

[Uncle Fester]

Hell, I'm planning on being a terminal O-4 in the reserves. Soaking up a silly CO billet as an O-5 sounds like shit and I don't want to commute to a flying gig.

Speaking as a now-retired Reserve O-5, I can say that there's almost literally zero upside in being an O-5+ in the Res.

Pay billets are damned hard to find unless you happen to live in DC/Norfolk/SD, being a Reserve unit CO is one of those "you can't excel, only avoid getting fired" deals, even more so than on AD, and you're expected to shell out thousands of dollars out of your own pocket to meet your obligations (oh but you can write it off your taxes, yay). If you aspire to make O-6+ plan on basically working two full-time jobs for 1.25x pay. Other than airline guys, I've seen very few who are able to make it work without fucking up their home life, and if I wanted to fuck up my home life, I would have stayed on active duty.

As @sevenhelmet says, the Reserve Flags have no interest in improving the process - since they made it work, why can't you?

 

[insanebikerboy]

Yep yep yep. I actually asked a question along these lines to VADM Mustin during an O-call during my last (as in, very last, before I hung it up) drill weekend. To the effect of, with all the resrons sundowning, or things like moving -209 from DC to NASWI, it's getting harder and harder for brownshoe Reservists to stay in the cockpit, especially if they want to fly tacair. That sort of seems counter to the objective of making the Reserves relevant to fighting a GPC war, is anything being done to address it? And his answer was basically, I don't see the problem. And that with three former resron COs or XOs in the room nodding along at the question.

So, "You dumb bastard, it's not a schooner, it's a sailboat."

Part of why I left the fts Navy was because of the stated goal of removing all hardware from resrons. I saw the writing on the wall and I didn’t want to be in a staff or NOSC for the rest of my Navy career. This was circa 2016 so I’m unaware if that’s still the case, but it weighed heavily on the decision at the time.

Reserves were relied on pretty heavily in early Iraq, and still used frequently during the long game. That was versus a non-peer level adversary. It’s absolutely baffling to have a drawdown of flying reservists when we have much more capable adversaries in todays world.