O4 List

[BigRed389]

Nothing is for sure, but for SWO, most of the people weeded out for O4 are 'terminal LTs' who decided not to attend DH school and stay on shore duty, got DFC'd as a DH, legal issues, etc. The latest 'road show' guidance is that "due course" DHs have nothing to worry about, but it is more important now to ensure there is very specific wording in your FITREP (e.g. CO Afloat in the milestone rec box).

Point is, just screening for DH doesn't make it automatic anymore. Unless we've had a big uptick in folks riding out terminal LT on shore, getting DFC'd or getting in trouble, the numbers from then and now don't add up.

And I take anything I hear from PERS-412 with an entire bucket of salt. The re-slate/last minute orders stories I hear from guys going through the DH slating process the past year gives very little confidence in their ability to also track stats and trends for the community. And let's not forget "I need more Ensigns"

 

[wlawr005]

No.

Aviators who make O-4 but don't screen for DH can continue to serve as 1310s, alternating sea/shore billets. They go up for CDR with their year group as normal, and if (meaning "when," in reality) they 2xFOS then they go for continuation, which is extremely close to automatic right now and has been for a long time.

The choice of jobs (on the sea side, at least) will suck, but there are still some good shore duties out there.

Interesting, I didn't know that. Where would non-DH O4s serve out they're 20 if they aren't in operational/training squadrons? I knew a couple O4s in ROTC who were stressing over the continuation board, so I figured 20 years wasn't a given as a LCDR.

 

[robav8r]

ACCP becomes even more important as we need higher retention going into the O-4 board to ensure we meet DH requirements on the back end.

Speaking of which - what's the word on the yearly message release ???

 

[robav8r]

Where would non-DH O4s serve out they're 20 if they aren't in operational/training squadrons?

TACRON's are a great place. Sea duty billets exist for non-DH O4's.

 

[Spekkio]

SWO/Subs is different than aviation because we always go from administrative board to statutory board. DH screen automatically gets you O4, CO/XO screen gets you O5 (99% of the time). That's why you and I don't know anyone who has been stuck in that 'separate pile' as you put it.

Sure, but that implies that there is a connection between statutory boards and administrative boards, ie we need X SWOs to serve as XO at sea, it's an O-4 billet, here is our list of selectees. Which is how I thought it worked, but the way I interpreted AOCM's post is that at statutory boards they throw everyone's fitreps into a big pile and pick out the top 70% regardless of fleet needs, individual community stats are simply based on the fact that they have a higher total number of officers going to the board.

 

[Pags]

Promotion Planning 101...

The Navy runs a vacancy based promotion system. We will not promote more folks into a rank than there are projected losses out of that rank. There are also statutory guidelines that must be followed (DOPMA) in terms of opportunity (70%-90% for O-4) and flow point (average seniority of promoting group - 9.0-11.0 YCS for O-4). All of the URL promotes in the aggregate and we are pushing the right limit on flow point (becoming too senior). In order to move flow point back to the left - N1 needs to take a large chunk of folks (reaching into more junior groups) and promote less of them (at the 70%) in order to not exceed projected vacancies. All aviation promoted at 65.39% on the FY14 board (not that great). SWO/73%; SUBS/82%; SEALs/89%; EOD/75%. However, due to our larger size - we still promoted more O-4s than all of the other communities combined (55% of the total). That said - we should still get our fair share of the promotion opportunity (70% in this case). We could be disadvantaged by our large up-front time-to-train (all NOB FITREPS) and the fact we serve as DHs after O-4 selection (SWO/SUB are before). Don't leave anything to chance if you are up for O-4 - scrub your record and ensure all FITREPs have been entered - especially your HWM FITREPs.

a few mores questions: Is aviation promoting enough O-4s to fill the NAE vacancies? or are the vacancies only based on overall URL need? Are there fewer vacancies due to fewer billets or due to more O-4s due to lower O-5 selection rate?

 

[mdubs]

I nerded out a little bit on cruise when sitting the ready 15 with no internet access except bupers. P-3 1310 select rate to O-4 was 50%. I think the 1320 rate was a little higher, something like 52%. I wish we had something like the Helo specific community brief for the VP world. I am hoping because the select rate was so low, the DH numbers will be higher. Been stressing for a couple of months and have to wait until July to see the list

 

[azguy]

Point is, just screening for DH doesn't make it automatic anymore. Unless we've had a big uptick in folks riding out terminal LT on shore, getting DFC'd or getting in trouble, the numbers from then and now don't add up.

Agree to disagree man. I had a DH on my last ship... last competitive FitRep before the O4 board was MP with no 'CO/XO Afloat rec' - traditionally considered pretty bad paper for a DH at the end of a 1st DH tour. Said DH still screened last spring on first IZ look. One data point, yeah, but we're not to point of some of the stories you hear on here of solid EP guys getting the axe as pilots or FOs.

And I take anything I hear from PERS-412 with an entire bucket of salt. The re-slate/last minute orders stories I hear from guys going through the DH slating process the past year gives very little confidence in their ability to also track stats and trends for the community. And let's not forget "I need more Ensigns"

Yeah, couldn't agree more here. Pretty scandalous stuff - one LCDR detailer pretty much butchered 2-3 DH slates resulting in what could only be termed a massive fvcking goat rope resulting in dozens of last minute re-slates and hot fills. The rumor is this happened on her way out the door, because she was here in DC looping for a very senior individual as the wheels were falling off back in Millington. Ruh roh.

 

[Pags]

I nerded out a little bit on cruise when sitting the ready 15 with no internet access except bupers. P-3 1310 select rate to O-4 was 50%. I think the 1320 rate was a little higher, something like 52%. I wish we had something like the Helo specific community brief for the VP world. I am hoping because the select rate was so low, the DH numbers will be higher. Been stressing for a couple of months and have to wait until July to see the list

I'd imagine the communities with larger wardrooms (HSC/HSM Expeditionary, VP) would have been harder hit.

 

[nittany03]

Interesting, I didn't know that. Where would non-DH O4s serve out they're 20 if they aren't in operational/training squadrons? I knew a couple O4s in ROTC who were stressing over the continuation board, so I figured 20 years wasn't a given as a LCDR.

I may be talking out my ass here, but I've never heard of a Navy O-4 denied continuation, barring misconduct, PRT failure, or other usual reasons to put someone out on their ass outside the promotion process. Not saying it hasn't happened; the plural of "anecdote" isn't "data." But I contrast this with the AF, who managed to make the papers a few years back after axing multiple Majors in the name of the almighty RIF. IIRC, the junior service's penchant for promoting people below zone had something to do with it as well; i.e. their timing was messed up by being promoted too soon. But I thought it notable that the idea of an O-4 NOT being able to retire at 20 was seen by some as enough of a betrayal to spin up the media about it.

 

[bert]

Interesting, I didn't know that. Where would non-DH O4s serve out they're 20 if they aren't in operational/training squadrons? I knew a couple O4s in ROTC who were stressing over the continuation board, so I figured 20 years wasn't a given as a LCDR.

Station pilot if they are lucky, otherwise all kinds of staffs (afloat and ashore), any 10xx billet... "The list is long, but distinguished."

Continuation is pretty clear cut, I don't know why they would have been sweating it.

 

[ProsNest1]

Correct me if I'm wrong @AOCM, but the NAE can't input it's values (billets, quals, experience) on to the statutory board, correct? Instead "best and most qualified" is determined largely by FITREP and overarching Big Navy values (performance at sea)?

Correct - though AQDs/SSCs should be briefed as they are part of the official record. Admin screening stamps are "supposed" to be removed - in quotes because I really don't know how a stat board plays out. I've sat on many admin boards, but the stat boards are as clear to me as the papal conclave.

 

[ProsNest1]

a few mores questions: Is aviation promoting enough O-4s to fill the NAE vacancies? or are the vacancies only based on overall URL need? Are there fewer vacancies due to fewer billets or due to more O-4s due to lower O-5 selection rate?

Good questions and you're starting to get into the swamp water.

Yes - we are currently promoting enough to fill the vacancies, but the stat board doesn't promote by T/M/S. Therefore, if we promote ~400 O-4s with a bare bones requirement of ~300 then we should be good - but the mix may not be (and often isn't) optimum.

Again, correct - the downside of a vacancy based promotion system is that old folks need to move out for new folks to move in. Currently, O-4 continuation (for those who 2XFOS to O-5) to 20 YCS is pretty much automatic. On one side we say, "Cool - we are looking out for people", but the flip side is that those continued O-4s suppress promotions into O-4.

 

[ProsNest1]

Sure, but that implies that there is a connection between statutory boards and administrative boards, ie we need X SWOs to serve as XO at sea, it's an O-4 billet, here is our list of selectees. Which is how I thought it worked, but the way I interpreted AOCM's post is that at statutory boards they throw everyone's fitreps into a big pile and pick out the top 70% regardless of fleet needs, individual community stats are simply based on the fact that they have a higher total number of officers going to the board.

Admin screening "stamps" are supposed to be removed for the stat boards. SWO/SUB guys who served as DHs prior to the stat board certainly get the credit for that. Folks who have admin screened for XO or CO AFLOAT prior to a board, but have not yet served in that billet, are not supposed to have that screening briefed at the stat board. I am unaware of what happens in actuality - but given the heavy scrutiny placed on board proceedings I am confident the business rules are followed.

 

[ProsNest1]

Speaking of which - what's the word on the yearly message release ???

There is still much debate and powerpoint slides/point papers being launched at high velocity. I'm confident we will have word soon - the bonus season closes in August regardless of when the message is released and we have expressed great angst over the tightening window. The fact is that all special pays and incentives are under heavy scrutiny and we need to provide airtight rigor on every $$$. Long gone are the days when hand waving, loud talking, and creative hyperbole would get you a bonus message.