Nothing is for sure, but for SWO, most of the people weeded out for O4 are 'terminal LTs' who decided not to attend DH school and stay on shore duty, got DFC'd as a DH, legal issues, etc. The latest 'road show' guidance is that "due course" DHs have nothing to worry about, but it is more important now to ensure there is very specific wording in your FITREP (e.g. CO Afloat in the milestone rec box).
Point is, just screening for DH doesn't make it automatic anymore. Unless we've had a big uptick in folks riding out terminal LT on shore, getting DFC'd or getting in trouble, the numbers from then and now don't add up.
And I take anything I hear from PERS-412 with an entire bucket of salt. The re-slate/last minute orders stories I hear from guys going through the DH slating process the past year gives very little confidence in their ability to also track stats and trends for the community. And let's not forget "I need more Ensigns"
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