NSS changes as of 04AUG08

[Kickflip89]

For all those matheneticians out there here is the new equation received from a student packet given out up at Whiting:

They first calculate a PAS and then convert that number to an NSS

SNA_PAS= 50+10*[ 0.9*(S-M1)/(S1)+0.1*(M2-NMU)/(S2)]

S-SNA Score
NMU-SNA # of Marginals and Unsats
M1-Squadron Average
M2-Squadron Average Marg and Unsats
S1-Standard Dev of Squadron Score
S2-Standard Dev of Squadron NMU

NSS Calculation

NSS= 50 +10*[(PAS -MPAS)/SDPAS]

PAS-NFS PAS
MPAS-Squadron Average
SDPAS- Standard Dev of Squadron PAS

Supposedly the updated NSS equation will allow them to give an NSS for each stage. Basically the claim is to be able to give the student a NSS at any stage with the only thing that could change it is the performance of other student.

On the rumor side of things, I was told that under the new system your new NSS will be fluid and changing based on other students until the day the selection board takes a snapshot and makes a decision. So example I complete on day 1 with a 58 and on day 2 another rock star finishes with a 67. My score could then fall because the eq is updated with every student that finishes. Or it could rise if people that finish between me and selection have really low scores.

What this means is that you will be given a baseline score of 50 just for showing up. Your PAS will go up if your score is better than average or your number of unsats / marginals is lower than average, and vice versa if opposite.

How much better / worse your PAS or NSS is than 50 depends on the ratio to how much better you were than your squadron average and the standard deviation of your squadron's average. I was told today that they went to 60 to try and increase the standard deviation of the samples a bit / broaden the bell curve.

NSS is the same deal: 50 for showing up, and then if your PAS is better than average it'll go up depending on how much better and the standard deviation.

It is not clear from the email I received how your final NSS is calculated, but the above should hold true for your PAS and block NSS.

Bottom line: All you can affect is your performance. Your PAS and NSS rely heavily on squadron average and standard deviations, which depend on the sample they are using. Study hard, and pray to the grade gods.


EDIT: BTW if anyone cares, your PAS is weighted so that 90% of your "adjustment" to the standard 50 comes from your scores in the phase and 10% comes from your number of marginals/unsats (also a marginal is worth half an unsat in terms of NMU). Marginal means marginal flight, not that you got below MIF. i.e. if your instructor is concerned you will not be MIF by the end of block, he will give you a marginal which will affect your PAS since it will change your NMU.

What this means is if you didn't get any marginals or unsat your NSS should go up from what it would have been under the old system, and if you got a lot of them, your NSS should go down.

ALSO, your NSS is calculated only by a sample group of people FROM YOUR SQUADRON. So, even though you may be selecting against people in Corpus, their NSS was calculated based on samples from their squadron, and your NSS was calculated based on samples from your squadron. So, as long as you are doing above average for your squadron, you should have an NSS higher than 50. Study hard.

 

[Kickflip89]

Because I am slightly bored I will nerd it up even more.

The whole system is based on a normal distribution of scores, or a bell curve. They take the last 60 people who went through in your squadron and make a pretty curve that looks like this:

Where σ (sigma) is the standard deviation, which tells you the width of the curve. μ is the average. 68% of the samples score within 1σ of average, 95% score within 2σ of average by definition.

So, how much better you do than the squadron average only affects your score in relation to σ. If your score is 2σ better than average you'll have *roughly* 20 points added to your score for a PAS of 70 (actually only 68 since 90% comes from score and 10% comes from NMU). If you do 3σ worse than average you'll have *roughly* 30 subtracted for a PAS of 20 (actually 23).

The same thing applies for NMU. NMU is calculated as follows: an unsat = 1, including ready room downs, and a marginal = 0.5. All those are added up and become your NMU for the phase. If your NMU is σ less than average, you'll have 1 point added to your score. If it is σ more than average, you'll have 1 point subtracted from your score.

Same thing with NSS, except the only thing that affects NSS is your PAS. If your PAS is 3σ more than average, your NSS will be 80, if it's σ less than average, your NSS will be 40.

Feel free to correct as necessary.

 

[D_Rob]

I'm gonna have to disagree with you on one very important point. The curve is not pretty.

You think since your fellow squadronmate's scores affect your score so much now, people will be more likely to not help with other peoples progress?

 

[HooverPilot]

Holy shitnerds batman! I don't think any students were thinking about this stuff when I went through (98-00). We could look at a weekly "NSS Score" that pretty much just showed how we were doing in comparision to our classmates. The "projected NSS" was never even close. I don't think I've even heard of PAS before. KMAC - was it like this when you went through? Bunk? Gatordev?

 

[Kickflip89]

1) I wouldn't allow something like NSS to get in the way of helping out a fellow STUD...and anyone who would is a douche. Now, I might not help out someone because they are a jerk, but that would be regardless of how well they were doing

2) What I took away from the e-mail with our PAS equation etc. was that the only thing you can affect is your performance, and you won't know what the average is or the std dev anyway, so just study hard and do your best, and don't fail anything.

 

[cbduke]

You think since your fellow squadronmate's scores affect your score so much now, people will be more likely to not help with other peoples progress?

I would hope not. Regardless of how your buddy's NSS affects your NSS, the bottom line is this - we're all in this "Naval Aviation" thing together. I think a lot of people forget that (even though there are MANY threads on this website that harp on that bottom line). The way I went through Primary goes kind of like this - I studied and tried to do my best. I helped out anyone I could, and I asked for help from others when I needed it. I didn't have my heart set on anything, I just tried to do the best I possibly could because at the end of the day, I knew my NSS or my selection might not be what I thought it was - but regardless of the number or the platform, I would know that I did my best. And now, I'm happy with where I ended up. As seen in recent months, having a 60 NSS throughout Primary and thinking you're solid does not guarantee you your first choice.

Same thing in Advanced - and if anything, I've seen that people are MORE helpful to their classmates here (even with that Tailhook thing looming overhead). I just completed a checkride last week, and then filled two of my friends in on things that I screwed up because they were going to fly the same checkride this week - and I know they would do the same for me.

I didn't know my Primary NSS until selection day, and frankly, I think that's the only day you need to know it. Your on-wing and flight leaders should be keeping tabs on you to see if you need any help, and face it, you know if you suck - and if you suck, ask for help, because I bet your classmates will be there for you.

 

[fc2spyguy]

I'll help anyone who wants it, I want to go fly the whirlybirds Suppose I should probably check in to primary first. Stupid strep throat:icon_rage

 

[Heloanjin]

You think since your fellow squadronmate's scores affect your score so much now, people will be more likely to not help with other peoples progress?

I don't know why you think this new formula will create backstabbing. The NSS methodology, comparing students to their squadron average, has been around for decades. I never saw backstabbing going on and never heard of backstabbing going on.

 

[Kickflip89]

I don't know why you think this new formula will create backstabbing. The NSS methodology, comparing students to their squadron average, has been around for decades. I never saw backstabbing going on and never heard of backstabbing going on.

True, the only thing that changed is the sample size is smaller and NMU is replacing TGI.

 

[Ducky]

I have not witnessed cutthroat actions either...ppl behind you cant affect you so pass the gouge down.

 

[incubus852]

ok enough with all the nerding out. someone answer this please. if you a take the same student and have him select before and after the deadline, is it going to make any difference really, assuming all variables the same? said student is still being compared to his peers who are scored the same, right?

 

[Ducky]

It really depends on the number of marginals or unsats you have compared to the squadron average of marginals and unsats. If you have none you may be higher If you have more it may be lower. If your #of marginals and unsats = the average it wont change much.

The major difference is that acclerated guys no longer have as big of an advantage with total graded items.

 

[MIDNJAC]

The major difference is that acclerated guys no longer have as big of an advantage with total graded items.

How do you figure? It would seem to me that the non-accel guys just suddenly got a bunch more graded items, while accel students if anything are probably skipping those early contact block flights, rather than later ones where their experience may or may not benefit them. In other words, wouldn't they actually be gaining an advantage here? If they skipped 3 or 4 (or whatever) flights in contacts early on when the items were traditionally not "counted" for anyone, and then stopped skipping much after that, then their "advantage" was minimal. Now if you skip a couple flights in early blocks, it really is an advantage of sorts. Maybe I'm wrong/confused/etc but that is how it struck me.

Also, another question while we are all talking NSS. Do the Marine students get lumped into the sample for NSS calculation, and thus indirectly affect Navy final NSS, or do they have their own pool and own sets of NSS?

 

[MIDNJAC]

ok enough with all the nerding out. someone answer this please. if you a take the same student and have him select before and after the deadline, is it going to make any difference really, assuming all variables the same? said student is still being compared to his peers who are scored the same, right?

The only way that I could see the playing field not being truly "leveled" here is if you selected w/n a sample period of 08AUG. If instituting this change lowers NSS across the board because the avg student didn't do well early on, then this new group of selectors would have a slightly lower average than the sample group and thus lower NSS than they would have had prior to 08AUG when no selectors or sample selectors had been "penalized" for bad grades in CPTs or Fams. I think that is over-thinking it a bit too much though. It's just the way it is, and it will affect all of us one way or another, maybe even for the better and it isn't worth worrying about IMHO.

 

[phrogpilot73]

The whole system is based on a normal distribution of scores, or a bell curve. They take the last 60 people who went through in your squadron and make a pretty curve that looks like this:

Where σ (sigma) is the standard deviation, which tells you the width of the curve. μ is the......

Holy shitnerds batman! I don't think any students were thinking about this stuff when I went through (98-00). We could look at a weekly "NSS Score" that pretty much just showed how we were doing in comparision to our classmates. The "projected NSS" was never even close. I don't think I've even heard of PAS before. KMAC - was it like this when you went through? Bunk? Gatordev?

I went through 99-01, and I never thought about my NSS until I was selecting - and then I was only curious. I spent too much time studying, drinking beer, and chasing women to worry about grades.