NSS changes as of 04AUG08

[SDNalgene]

Wanting to know your NSS throughout..isn't that just one more thing that's going to be on your mind that shouldn't when you're flying/studying? .... It's a good confidence boost for someone doing well, but if a guy finds out he's at the bottom of the pile NSS-wise, maybe it would be a detriment when he should be working harder to fix what's going wrong. IMO. But then again, this just might be one of those "when you get to primary, you'll understand" things.

I understand what you are getting at, but I still think it's important to be able to see how you are doing. It's not the guys at the top who benefit from being able to get an accurate gauge on their performance, it's the one's on the bottom. Case in point.

A buddy of mine went to the KLRU det and did just fine. During that time he never had a jacket review or anything of the like because we were on det. He never got a pink sheet and never had a grade sheet that said he was struggling. In fact most said something along the lines of, "good progress, motivated student." He got back and found out that you could check your NSS at stucon. Sweet; he was in the mid 50's. He started RIs and was doing okay. At a jacket review his flight leader asked him how he was doing. He told him RIs are tough, but he was coping with the double pumps alright, and hey, no worries, he had a 50-something NSS going in. All he wanted were helos so he was money. The flight leader became concerned because you typically lost 15 to 20 points off the NSS that they project before RI's in our particular squadron (this is a time and place thing, don't try to apply it to your squadron at your time and then get pissed when the number doesn't work). My buddy was told that he might have to go to a board in order to select because his NSS would likely be in the 30's. They put him on SMS, stopped double pumping him, and he studied his ass off and squeaked through. He was a good dude, and like many suggested, he never worried about grades and just tried to do well on every flight. No one ever told him he was struggling. Had he known how marginal he was doing he could have requested SMS and gotten more help from the command earlier on and it wouldn't have been as close as it was. Knowing where you are is important, but stressing about what you have already done is a waste of time.

 

[Ducky]

The above gouge is good and valid. It will be interesting to see the accuracy of the projections on the new system. I select Tuesday on the old system and my projected dropped 12 points in RIs even with an RI ration of 1.179.

Rumor has it that the new system will swing more because it supposedly only uses the past 60 completers instead of 200.

 

[Beans]

He told him RIs are tough, but he was coping with the double pumps alright, and hey, no worries, he had a 50-something NSS going in. All he wanted were helos so he was money.

^ That was a mistake that could have been avoided by getting good gouge from his peers.

My take on it is that you should always be working as hard as you reasonably can, but that the constant feedback can be a good thing. Knowing where you stand can help you quantitatively evaluate a change in study habits. Try ___ for a block of training, see how it affects you, wash-rinse-repeat.

This will only worsen the unavoidable grade-mongering that occurs when one's NSS is the only way to have an effect on one's fate. That might be bad for some, but there are all kinds of distractions from one's performance in flight school. It's part of the challenge.

 

[kmac]

That is very true. Each squadron has their NSS adjusted based off of what they give on average. The scores also adjust based on the last several group of selectees, so the not only is the score going to go down after a CCX (usually, there are just too many CTS maneuvers unless you get a ton of 5s), but it's also going to move a bit between final score/pre-selection and final score/post selection.

To clarify a bit what gatordev is saying, NSS "adjusts" between the irrelevant projected NSS and the actual NSS. The reason for the quote marks is because a students NSS is affected only by the previous students in the SAME squadron. Whether one squadron grades easier or worse compared to others is irrelevant. For example, a student's score from VT-2 is not affected by a student who may have just completed in VT-6. The PAS is affected by Total Graded Items, Average Score, and standard deviation of that individual squadron... not all squadrons. For those that think that scores are adjusted because one squadron is easier or worse... it simply isn't true. The problem probably lies within the projected NSS. I can't speak for other squadrons, but VT-27 uses a monthly average for both TGI and Average Score. If you were given a (projected) score on the 31st of July it may not be the same as one you would get on the 1st of Aug. Also, I've seen on some trackers an "average" score that was dated from 2006. It's not a perfect system, but the actual NSS does do a decent job of leveling the playing field amongst students.

 

[kmac]

Rumor has it that the new system will swing more because it supposedly only uses the past 60 completers instead of 200.

Where do you get 200 from?

 

[RockySLP]

Where do you get 200 from?

I can't speak for him, but I know that this number is mentioned often and accepted as truth by many students. My flight leader claimed it to me once as well. If I had to estimate what the average student believes, I would say that this is the most common understanding.

However, the STUCON at my squadron will tell us the recent sample size if we ask. The number was much lower than 200 in the months I witnessed.

There has been some speculation that the sample size is comprised of the smaller of these two numbers:
1) the past 6 (or maybe 3) months of completers
2) the past 200 completers

The MPTS specifies the number as "a population of previous students."


The truth is out there...

 

[Herc_Dude]

I remember 200 floating around when I was there as well ... never saw it on paper ...

 

[kmac]

I was told "previous 6 months" worth of students. That information was from the guy* that generates the NSSs over at CNATRA.

 

[Herc_Dude]

I was told "previous 6 months" worth of students. That information was from the guy* that generates the NSSs over at CNATRA.

I would say you have a solid source

 

[jazzdude]

The Training and Admin document that I have says 6 months or 60 students, whichever is more. The copy I have is dated 17NOV99, so I don't know if there's a newer copy.

 

[RockySLP]

We should invite some sociology professors to investigate the fascinating and hilarious role of rumors in this business. It's not like they're doing anything useful otherwise.

 

[whitman]

The above gouge is good and valid. It will be interesting to see the accuracy of the projections on the new system. I select Tuesday on the old system and my projected dropped 12 points in RIs even with an RI ration of 1.179.

Rumor has it that the new system will swing more because it supposedly only uses the past 60 completers instead of 200.

Is 1.179 good? What sq? I thought i was average with a slightly better score in RI's.

 

[IKE]

The number that is added/subtracted to/from your PAS to determine your NSS is based on the average PAS of your squadron over the last 6 months. I was able to correctly calculate my NSS before STUCON did in VT-2. I took my ratio and compared it to people who graduated recently, which gave me an estimated PAS of 49 (just below the median). VT-2's average PAS for the previous 6 months was 52, so I subtracted 2 from my PAS, and voila my NSS was 47, on the nose. It's this last step that I don't think is mathematically valid. A few prior NFOs or instrument rated guys graduate one month before you, and your NSS goes down significantly.

Of course, it didn't matter to me, because I wanted Helos

 

[Gatordev]

To clarify a bit what gatordev is saying, NSS "adjusts" between the irrelevant projected NSS and the actual NSS. The reason for the quote marks is because a students NSS is affected only by the previous students in the SAME squadron. Whether one squadron grades easier or worse compared to others is irrelevant. For example, a student's score from VT-2 is not affected by a student who may have just completed in VT-6. The PAS is affected by Total Graded Items, Average Score, and standard deviation of that individual squadron... not all squadrons. For those that think that scores are adjusted because one squadron is easier or worse... it simply isn't true. The problem probably lies within the projected NSS. I can't speak for other squadrons, but VT-27 uses a monthly average for both TGI and Average Score. If you were given a (projected) score on the 31st of July it may not be the same as one you would get on the 1st of Aug. Also, I've seen on some trackers an "average" score that was dated from 2006. It's not a perfect system, but the actual NSS does do a decent job of leveling the playing field amongst students.

Good stuff. That's much clearer than I had ever heard it explained.

 

[Ducky]

For all those matheneticians out there here is the new equation received from a student packet given out up at Whiting:

They first calculate a PAS and then convert that number to an NSS

SNA_PAS= 50+10*[ 0.9*(S-M1)/(S1)+0.1*(M2-NMU)/(S2)]

S-SNA Score
NMU-SNA # of Marginals and Unsats
M1-Squadron Average
M2-Squadron Average Marg and Unsats
S1-Standard Dev of Squadron Score
S2-Standard Dev of Squadron NMU

NSS Calculation

NSS= 50 +10*[(PAS -MPAS)/SDPAS]

PAS-NFS PAS
MPAS-Squadron Average
SDPAS- Standard Dev of Squadron PAS

Supposedly the updated NSS equation will allow them to give an NSS for each stage. Basically the claim is to be able to give the student a NSS at any stage with the only thing that could change it is the performance of other student.

On the rumor side of things, I was told that under the new system your new NSS will be fluid and changing based on other students until the day the selection board takes a snapshot and makes a decision. So example I complete on day 1 with a 58 and on day 2 another rock star finishes with a 67. My score could then fall because the eq is updated with every student that finishes. Or it could rise if people that finish between me and selection have really low scores.