Naval Aviator vs Airline route

[jarhead]

Long story short, I’m a month or so away from shipping to OCS with an SNA contract. Due to the 13 + month wait time for NIFE, and the subsequent 6-8 months on the other end before primary, I’m starting to get cold feet about an “8” year contract that is more like 13 years. Obviously with the pilot shortage, the airline route seems like a sweet gig right now, but the problem is I have 0 flight hours and am kind of scared of going 100k in debt. Any and all inputs or advice is greatly appreciated, thanks!

Well the catch is, I’ve always wanted to be an airline pilot first and foremost, the Navy was just the route that I choose to achieve that. 13 years is a long time to not be fully committed to being an officer first, and a pilot second if the airlines is the end goal. I don’t want to get stuck for a decade and a half, wishing I had gone the civilian route, but I’m sure I could end up loving the Navy and never looking back.

If that's the case I wouldn't waste time in the military. You'll be miserable for various reasons, especially if you select helos (not because helos are bad but because it's not the fixed wing time you need for the airlines). I have told my two teenagers, who have both said they'd like to fly, to go the civilian route unless they really want to serve in the military.

Currently with zero hours, you won't get hired by a major airline or Fedex/UPS for another >8 years. That includes:
- a year or so to go from zero hours to CFI
- 2-3 years time building as a CFI to get your ATP
- getting hired by a regional outfit and slinging gear there a couple years or more until you move to the left seat
- building enough experience in the left seat until a major airline calls you for an interview

Of course, if you can click the "diversity" box on an application that might bump your timeline up a year or two.

That's if you have the finances and support to do it, and there are no hiccups in your training or in the industry...

Good luck and go Hokies!
S/F

 

[wink]

I am not so sure the OP needs more advice. He has gotten plenty of good insight already. But for those just looking at the best pathway to the airlines, one thing has not been considered. While regional airline salaries are not nearly as bad as they once were, they are modest given the investment in the cost of training. Not to be forgotten are the jobs held while getting to a regional. They rarely pay well. Once you leave the regional for The Show, you will likely see a pay cut for at least a year. I have not crunched the numbers, but I am wondering how the present value of a dollar figures in. Going Navy will have you earning a decent salary right after OCS while on the civ side you are still dumping wads of cash on training, and will continue to do so for several months. All through those months instructing, flying single engine charter, etc, and through the first couple years at a regional, the Navy has the edge on pay AND benefits. Ultimately, you may see pay parity with active duty Navy once a Captain at a regional. I dunno. But until you are a few years at The Show, total earnings from the first civ introductory flight to that point still favors the Navy in total earnings. And there is not training debt. Of course the civ guy "may" be more senior. But there are so many variables it is hard to predict how much more money that means. Pay scales go to the 12 year mark. Big earning improvements happen with wide body flying. Lots a airline jobs are either all narrow body or predominantly so. I was at a very large airline with plenty of wide body flying. But I hated the long haul stuff. Stayed narrow body by choice my whole career. Does the OP really know he will love flying a B787 for 12 hours cutting time zones like a pizza pie. Would he pass on a SWA gig to maybe get a job at Delta so he can fly wide bodies?

I for one never had a warm fuzzy for guys that are joining the military just to train for the airlines. It is fine, of course, and you can still serve with honor. But it always left me with some doubt to the depth of their commitment. I did see guys that were great sticks, but lousy officers just because they were marking time until their MSR and they could jump ship. But if you are going to choose between civ zero to hero and the military, money has to be a part of the calculus. I hope someone smarter than me with some finance chops will run a total earnings comparison taking into consideration the present value of a dollar. Might be fun.

 

[Griz882]

I am not so sure the OP needs more advice. He has gotten plenty of good insight already….

Wait a minute…we haven’t discussed Marine Corps infantry options.

 

[ChuckMK23]

It is good to rehash this subject every so often. Honestly this thread is the true value of this community and the divided opinions expressed are what pays it forward. Good stuff. I've been on here almost 20 years and it's great stuff for a youngster.

 

[MIDNJAC]

Question for the group:

Do y'all think airline cadet programs are the way of the future or do you think they'll go away once the shortage is fixed (if it ever does)? In other words, do you think they will be the primary source of airline pilots on the civ side or do you think there will still be a considerable amount of building ratings on one's own without a formal program (independent 141 or 61)?

This is probably not a popular theory (and it certainly isn't more credible than others), but I think there is a possibility that the regionals will cease to exist in their current form in the next few years-decade, simply due to manning shortfalls. SKW is already trying to open up part 135 flying to get some relief off the ATP requirements. The pool of available candidates is drying as the civilian route becomes more and more costly (and the newest generation looks to more profitable career options). Cadet programs might be an alternate way to accomplish the same thing. That and they can meter "flow" just like all the regionals in conjunction with their mainlines have been doing for a while now. In short, I have no idea.

 

[zippy]

This is probably not a popular theory (and it certainly isn't more credible than others), but I think there is a possibility that the regionals will cease to exist in their current form in the next few years-decade, simply due to manning shortfalls. SKW is already trying to open up part 135 flying to get some relief off the ATP requirements. The pool of available candidates is drying as the civilian route becomes more and more costly (and the newest generation looks to more profitable career options). Cadet programs might be an alternate way to accomplish the same thing. That and they can meter "flow" just like all the regionals in conjunction with their mainlines have been doing for a while now. In short, I have no idea.

People, including some airline CEOs theorize the regionals are going away, and that sounds good in theory but the network carriers actions don’t point to that happening any time soon. AA, Delta and United each have hundreds of RJs (300-540 depending on company). That is a lot of capacity and lift that can’t be replaced without a fundamental shift in the way people travel in the US.

Some of the revenue constrained and inefficient 50 seaters have gone away and are being replaced by buses but AA is still buying new 175s and used 170s, United is expanding RJ terminals and pushing scope relief for new 550s so they can profit from first class seat sales on 50 seat aircraft. Customers like the product compared to being crammed into the back of a mainline aircraft And their CASM is still cheaper to operate.

There used to be an argument that the regional model only worked with low wages for pilots. Robert Isom and AA paying new hire FOs $90/hr, 6 year 50 seat RJ Captains $213/hr and LCA $427/hr show this was a lie. CASM only increased ~10% as a result of the pay increases and they still save a ton of money by Farming out the ground handling, FAs, customer service, maintenance etc. AAs regional fleet is 75% the size of its 737/321fleet and accounts for about 50% of revenue dollars. United Express and Delta connection are still revenue generators that feed their respective hubs with passengers.

No one wants the regionals to go away more than the folks that work there for pennies on the dollar compared to their mainline counterparts but as long as their overall operation maintains a revenue margin above the to cost to operate , they’ll still be around.

 

[HuggyU2]

Hokie,
You're heart is not in to being a military pilot.

Go figure out the civilian route. Tons of others do it.

 

[KODAK]

If you want to earn the opportunity to serve your country as a Naval Aviator, go to OCS. If you want to be an airline pilot, go and be an airline pilot. There are no free rides in this life and certainly no guarantees.

 

[MIDNJAC]

No one wants the regionals to go away more than the folks that work there for pennies on the dollar compared to their mainline counterparts but as long as their overall operation maintains a revenue margin above the to cost to operate , they’ll still be around.

All the stuff you say is true, or more specifically, stuff that is happening or could be happening. My point was that the current model is probably dead. Could it continue in another (more appropriately compensated) form? Of course. I don't think they will go away at all. But I do think this is a watershed moment for that segment of the industry, whether that be a more mainline experience, or 50 seat part 135 ops because they can't find anyone to fly those planes at regional rates. I don't personally think the Envoy/etc pay increases are here to stay. I mean that one specifically has an expiration date in a year or two, right? SKW doesn't even have a union. All they need is one good recession to scale all of that back. The civilian pilots aren't being created like they once were, either way though. 1500 hr rule made that their bread and butter. Unless they get relief from that, its gonna force their hand in the next 5-10 years. Perhaps the pay being good in the short term, but $400+/hr is unsustainable for them and I believe that is also just for LCA's right? (hell, that would probably put my shop out of business too if it were like a real pay scale).

 

[SynixMan]

I also don't think the regionals will exist in their current form in another 5 years. The issue I see is majors hiring increasingly junior pilots on a seniority list for 30+ years. It's really hard to gauge maturity and fit of a 20-something

 

[sevenhelmet]

All the stuff you say is true, or more specifically, stuff that is happening or could be happening. My point was that the current model is probably dead. Could it continue in another (more appropriately compensated) form? Of course. I don't think they will go away at all. But I do think this is a watershed moment for that segment of the industry, whether that be a more mainline experience, or 50 seat part 135 ops because they can't find anyone to fly those planes at regional rates. I don't personally think the Envoy/etc pay increases are here to stay. I mean that one specifically has an expiration date in a year or two, right? SKW doesn't even have a union. All they need is one good recession to scale all of that back. The civilian pilots aren't being created like they once were, either way though. 1500 hr rule made that their bread and butter. Unless they get relief from that, its gonna force their hand in the next 5-10 years. Perhaps the pay being good in the short term, but $400+/hr is unsustainable for them and I believe that is also just for LCA's right? (hell, that would probably put my shop out of business too if it were like a real pay scale).

It won't be a smooth process, but I think the 1500 hour rule will end up being re-addressed.

 

[HuggyU2]

... I think the 1500 hour rule will end up being re-addressed.

Let's hope not.
The "pilot shortage" is a misnomer: for many years including this last year, we are producing more pilots than the demand.
The fact that some airlines didn't plan well for the past 24 months means they are having to scramble.

But the pilots are there. The DOT's numbers show the data.

Airlines have been screaming "shortage" for years, but it's a shortage of pilots willing to work for shit wages and benefits.

Now, I see a lot of 25 year olds showing up in the right seat of major airline cockpits, with minimal Regional experience.

And I know very top-shelf military pilots not passing interviews, and/or not getting the interview yet. So the non-pilot-run HR departments are going to try to convince me it's desperate times for hiring? Bullshit.

Eventually the demand will likely drop off, the music will stop, and furloughs will start. Until then, FUPM.

 

[ChuckMK23]

At the last half of this video, cadet academys are discussed

Pilots Are Angry Over Airport Chaos. Here's How Airlines Are Trying to Fix It.

From long lines to delays and cancellations, airports around the world have been trying to manage a post-pandemic travel surge with a shortage of staff. WSJ follows an American Airlines pilot through the disruptions to unpack how airlines are trying to fix it. Photo Composite: Emily Siu

www.wsj.com

 

[sevenhelmet]

Let's hope not.
The "pilot shortage" is a misnomer: for many years including this last year, we are producing more pilots than the demand.
The fact that some airlines didn't plan well for the past 24 months means they are having to scramble.

But the pilots are there. The DOT's numbers show the data.

Airlines have been screaming "shortage" for years, but it's a shortage of pilots willing to work for shit wages and benefits.

Now, I see a lot of 25 year olds showing up in the right seat of major airline cockpits, with minimal Regional experience.

And I know very top-shelf military pilots not passing interviews, and/or not getting the interview yet. So the non-pilot-run HR departments are going to try to convince me it's desperate times for hiring? Bullshit.

Eventually the demand will likely drop off, the music will stop, and furloughs will start. Until then, FUPM.

All good points. A series of aggressive over-corrections does seem to be the industry standard. We're at an interesting inflection point, at least from an outsider's perspective.

Just curious, but is there any unifying reason to why the military guys aren't passing interviews, or just individual circumstances? It seemed to me the most cut-and-dried process (by far) out of the various jobs I interviewed for when I got out. XP + prep = job.

 

[SynixMan]

All good points. A series of aggressive over-corrections does seem to be the industry standard. We're at an interesting inflection point, at least from an outsider's perspective.

Just curious, but is there any unifying reason to why the military guys aren't passing interviews, or just individual circumstances? It seemed to me the most cut-and-dried process (by far) out of the various jobs I interviewed for when I got out. XP + prep = job.

They can afford the be mildly picky and I think some people aren't doing the prep with the full heart and/or making a poor showing attitude wise in the room, at least anecdotally. I do know friends who went in with minimal prep and a "this is my backup school" mentality and didn't get the offer.