I understand what you're saying, and it makes sense.
But I really don't see our president speaking with that level of nuance or depth, at least publicly or via twitter.
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How about that North Korea?
- Thread starter xj220
- Start date
But I really don't see our president speaking with that level of nuance or depth, at least publicly or via twitter.
We believe they now have the capability to deliver a nuclear weapon to a U.S. territory. That is the game changer.
Who's "We"? The NYT/WP?. That's an incredibly hard thing to do. Currently, only two countries in the world posses that capability (who are potential adversaries).
I get that they don't exactly play according to the rules/norms of international diplomacy, but I don't really see how that changes the equation much. The sole purpose of the PRK government is continuity of their rule, and there is no scenario in which they attack the US with nukes and they stay in power. In fact I can't think of a scenario where North Korea provokes a conflict between itself and the US and the ruling class stays in power (and they have had ample opportunity to do that for several decades, all they would need to do is start shelling Seoul or US military assets in the region).
I'm inclined to agree, there is no advantage to a first strike by NK. The craziness of KJU convincing himself there is an advantage is the wild card in the situation or- more likely- a test or display which goes too far and is misinterpreted as a first strike attempt. Possibly even a missile failure over someplace like Japan that results in civilian casualties.
I'm just spitballin' here.
I'm just spitballin' here.
And that is a problem, if no one knows for sure everyone can read into it what they want. That includes one of our closest allies in the region, Colombia.
So is making an ICBM but they have apparently successfully tested one, twice. It likely doesn't change the larger strategic calculus that much but we now have to 'honor the threat'.
I very much doubt KJU would order a first strike - there's no possible way that ends up with DPRK regime or national survival. But if the goal is to demonstrate a real nuclear deterrent capability, betting that the US and Japan would accept it as a fait accompli rather than strike, then a missile launch demonstrating the capability to hit Guam is a possibility. It's just a matter of whether he believes a demonstration alone would provoke retaliation from the US.
KJU is making a calculation where the only acceptable end result to him is assured regime survival. He's deciding whether his odds for that are better by demonstrating a valid nuclear deterrent, or by backing off and negotiating. It's hard enough for the West to guess what he's thinking without factoring in mixed and contradictory signals from our side. Are we 'locked and loaded' and setting red lines? Or are we 'no closer to war...than we were a week ago'?
KJU is making a calculation where the only acceptable end result to him is assured regime survival. He's deciding whether his odds for that are better by demonstrating a valid nuclear deterrent, or by backing off and negotiating. It's hard enough for the West to guess what he's thinking without factoring in mixed and contradictory signals from our side. Are we 'locked and loaded' and setting red lines? Or are we 'no closer to war...than we were a week ago'?
I said "we" don't know for sure. In the case you site, the VP was right there to convey a formal message. Anyone else concerned could have gotten the same message. The Columbian president's remarks are for local consumption and reveals nothing about whether he truly beleived the US was going to invade Venezuela. President Reagan was always criticized by the left and the press for bellicose talk and even war mongering. More likely to be remembered by most on this forum, President G.W. Bush was rounding criticized for what was considered needlessly belligerent "cowboy" talk. It comes with the territory if you are a GOP President. Republicans are simply not refined or intelligent enough for the nuance of international relations. In a way, it is insulting to foreign leaders and diplomats.
The fact the Colombian President had to say anything in response to a suggestion by the President that no one had seriously broached before isn't something that 'comes with the territory'.
Defense News: If the US is going to war in North Korea, nobody told the US military
"We went from 0 to 100 miles per hour because somebody decided it was a good idea to tell the Washington Post about an ... intelligence assessment and the president reacted to the story in the media,” said one former Obama administration official who spoke on background.
What’s even more galling is that nothing has substantially changed in the situation with North Korea that would have precipitated the escalating rhetoric other than Trump’s reaction to a news report, the source said.
“We‘ve known for years that Kim Jong Un has sought to miniaturize nuclear warheads,” the source said. ”What we are seeing is an how echo-chamber of hyperbole can spin out of control to the point where the entire Korean Peninsula is on the edge of a nuclear crisis. That’s the power these leaks have now.”
"We went from 0 to 100 miles per hour because somebody decided it was a good idea to tell the Washington Post about an ... intelligence assessment and the president reacted to the story in the media,” said one former Obama administration official who spoke on background.
What’s even more galling is that nothing has substantially changed in the situation with North Korea that would have precipitated the escalating rhetoric other than Trump’s reaction to a news report, the source said.
“We‘ve known for years that Kim Jong Un has sought to miniaturize nuclear warheads,” the source said. ”What we are seeing is an how echo-chamber of hyperbole can spin out of control to the point where the entire Korean Peninsula is on the edge of a nuclear crisis. That’s the power these leaks have now.”
An interesting take on how the NK ICBM program itself took off (literally and figuratively) in the past two years.
https://www.iiss.org/en/iiss voices...deb/august-2b48/north-korea-icbm-success-3abb
In a nutshell: North Korea likely acquired new engine technology from Russia/Ukraine through illicit criminal networks sometime in 2016.
https://www.iiss.org/en/iiss voices...deb/august-2b48/north-korea-icbm-success-3abb
In a nutshell: North Korea likely acquired new engine technology from Russia/Ukraine through illicit criminal networks sometime in 2016.
Of course it does. Left or Right, Dem or GOP, doesn't matter. Foreign leaders are always clarifying and amplifying things about their relations with the USA and other countries, often with an inflection meant for the local audience.
The President just randomly introduced an 'option' that wasn't even on the table, and don't play like you are so naive to think he meant a NEO or anything else along those lines. As RLSO already mentioned, not really likely the President does nuance like that.
The sad irony is that this is a great boon for the Venezuelan leaders, who have long claimed that the US was out to get them militarily and now the Commander in Chief just confirmed that. Oh, and Latin America in general has an aversion to US military intervention for some reason....
Quit trying to make excuses, you are much smarter than that.
I see this thread has devolved into another political rant. Can we please get back to the subject matter? It was much more interesting. Yes, North Korea involves politics. However, unless I've missed something, generalizing about intelligence based on political affiliation and discussing rhetoric toward Latin America is jacking the thread.