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Hiring floodgates opening in 3....2.....1.....

SynixMan

Space Cadet
pilot
Contributor
Would you pay out of pocket for ATP-CTP or do you all think regional hiring will pick up enough by next spring that I shouldn’t worry about it?
No, but be prepared to ride the regional hiring wave later this year.

You're going to need time at a regional anyway, so doing ATP/CTP, time building, and ATP practical aren't a good use of your money. As @Jim123 mentioned, there's a lot of flux at the moment. Majors starting up hiring (plus FedEx and UPS continuing) will continue to create vacancies at the Regionals. At some point (probably quickly) the pool of ex-RJ guys from Compass/XJT will dry up, and hiring will be back to 2019 levels. I don't have a crystal ball, but demand for pilots created the ATP-CTP funded by companies as well as the RTP bonuses.

Skillbridge is good stuff if you can find a good opportunity. Socialize that with your Reporting Senior early, as they hold 99% of the keys.
 

HAL Pilot

Well-Known Member
None
Contributor
I think Delta and United have both announced hiring hundreds of pilots this year. They got rid of too many via early retirements.
 

Jim123

DD-214 in hand and I'm gonna party like it's 1998
pilot
The one thing you can depend on airline pilot staffing, long term, is for those departments to shoot themselves in the foot/try to out-screwup BUPERS and AFPC. If you have good timing, then............
 

sevenhelmet

Far from this opera for evermore...
pilot
The one thing you can depend on airline pilot staffing, long term, is for those departments to shoot themselves in the foot/try to out-screwup BUPERS and AFPC. If you have good timing, then............
Yep, it's all about timing. If your timing is like mine, good luck getting in.

The difference is, it's been my observation that once you are in, seniority isn't punished in the airlines.
 

scoolbubba

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
Yep, it's all about timing. If your timing is like mine, good luck getting in.

The difference is, it's been my observation that once you are in, seniority isn't punished in the airlines.
That's the point of seniority. The flip side of that is seniority is the golden chain that binds you, for better or worse, to whatever major that called first (95% of guys go with and stay with the first on to give them a seniority number). choose wisely.

If I wanted to leave, and there's only one I'd even considering bouncing for, in a year or two, it won't make any financial sense for me to walk away from a career at a carrier where for the last 10 years I'm here (ie a 1/3rd of my career), I'll conservatively be in the top 20% on our list, with the last 6 being in the top 1%. That's basically a 450,000-500,000 a year part time job when you factor in line bidding vacation and burning accrued sick time.
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
Eh, they're replacing their most expensive workers for far cheaper labor at the bottom of the seniority list. I'm sure it made sense to some team of accountants in a hole somewhere.
Exactly. If it didn’t make sense for the bottom line, they wouldn’t have done it.
 

wink

VS NFO. Blue and Gold Officer
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
Exactly. If it didn’t make sense for the bottom line, they wouldn’t have done it.
Sure. But based on what? Their perfect knowledge of how a black swan event plays out? Data is collected, assumptions made. Lots of assumptions. Lots of ways to guess wrong. Plenty of businesses, organizations and governments have made decisions that turn out costly and to look not very sensible.
 

taxi1

Well-Known Member
pilot
Sure. But based on what? Their perfect knowledge of how a black swan event plays out? Data is collected, assumptions made. Lots of assumptions. Lots of ways to guess wrong. Plenty of businesses, organizations and governments have made decisions that turn out costly and to look not very sensible.
When they are big enough they are essentially insured by the government (meaning, us taxpayers). So they are insured against Black Swans.
 

SlickAg

Registered User
pilot
Sure. But based on what? Their perfect knowledge of how a black swan event plays out? Data is collected, assumptions made. Lots of assumptions. Lots of ways to guess wrong. Plenty of businesses, organizations and governments have made decisions that turn out costly and to look not very sensible.
Regardless of how this event was going to play out, getting rid of a large chunk of your most highly compensated group of individuals by offering them some sort of a “buyout” was going to have almost zero downside.
 

wlawr005

Well-Known Member
pilot
Contributor
COVID has essentially given every airline an opportunity to not necessarily renegotiate labor contracts, but to at least renegotiate how much those contracts cost. Pilot contracts alone generally represent 30-40 percent of an airline's fixed operating cost.
 

Treetop Flyer

Well-Known Member
pilot
COVID has essentially given every airline an opportunity to not necessarily renegotiate labor contracts, but to at least renegotiate how much those contracts cost. Pilot contracts alone generally represent 30-40 percent of an airline's fixed operating cost.
Way off on cost for pilots. According to Airlines For America in 2019, all labor combined comes to 32%.

Also I’m not aware of any major airlines that renegotiated contracts for covid.
 

HAL Pilot

Well-Known Member
None
Contributor
Our last contract negotiation, the difference between what we wanted and what management wanted to give us was less than 50 cents per ticket.
 

wink

VS NFO. Blue and Gold Officer
None
Super Moderator
Contributor
When they are big enough they are essentially insured by the government (meaning, us taxpayers). So they are insured against Black Swans.
Disagree. MAYBE, only if you are talking insured against extinction, and that was not the context of my post. One needs only look at the bottom line and stock performance to see how much COVID cost the airlines. Even in the case of too big to FAIL, that is dependent on the demand for services. If airline travel were to not recover and there was an over supply of seats, I think it likely a failing airline would not be propped up. Their absence would not be missed by consumers, who would jump on the airline that filled the void, making the industry as a whole more healthy.
 
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