Future of flying (f-35/p-8 questions)

[ryan1234]

This might be beyond the scope of this particular thread, but I was talking with one of our senior IP's today, and he was discussing how big Navy is expecting a big skill gap going from the T-45 into the JSF........and that they are considering a bunch of options, mostly involving some sort of additions to the strike training syllabus (downloading current FRS level stuff basically). One option was post winging, having a seperate short syllabus for Hornet/JSF types, and another was just adding flights to the end of certain stages basically requiring guys to think outside of the box. He mentioned doing stuff like section weps patterns and something a little more like multiplane pops, but weps pattern style. Another option would be reserving a few flights at the end of tacforms for full random maneuvering, basically completely uncalled stuff, requiring the SNA to keep up and hold on. He also discussed integrating some sort of very basic CAS training, involving using a 9 line, pushing from altitude and basically working a TOT realtime, but a little bit more realistically than we did on the multiplane section low levels. Last thing that was mentioned was getting an initial NVG qual taken care of (he called it a "high qual" FWIW). Sounds like interesting stuff, and he said that not only are they expecting this with the intro of the F-35, but that they are already noticing it at the Hornet/Rhino FRS's (supposedly the last 10 years have seen an ever increasing gap in skillset from newly winged guys showing up as FRS cat 1's). Thoughts? Sounds like pretty good training to me for sure.

Don't know if this is relevant, but in 2009 (don't know if there still is) there were several F-22s getting dropped out of UPT. Don't know the details... I'm Hacker or someone like that could share... but they were being sent straight down to Tyndall.

Other people have said that new guys getting the F-22 would have to make it through the F-15/16 B-course before moving on to the F-22 syllabus.

 

[LazersGoPEWPEW]

Are the "EP-3E" squadrons at NAS Whidbey Island transitioning to the "P-8 Poseidon" or will the continue to fly Aries???

Fixed.

No.

There is the EP-X program, but it's more like Boeing preparing for the future needs of the Navy.

 

[armada1651]

Don't know if this is relevant, but in 2009 (don't know if there still is) there were several F-22s getting dropped out of UPT. Don't know the details... I'm Hacker or someone like that could share... but they were being sent straight down to Tyndall.

Other people have said that new guys getting the F-22 would have to make it through the F-15/16 B-course before moving on to the F-22 syllabus.

As of December-ish, F-22 selection was out of IFF. As I understand it, the guys came out of T-38 with a chance at an F-22 slot - there would be a given number for each IFF class - and then competed within their class for them. I think most of the guys who didn't get it went Vipers, though their may have been a few going to A-10s, Eagles, or Strike Eagles. And I'm pretty sure those who did pick up F-22 slots went to the F-16 FTU first, but I don't know if they went through the entire B-Course syllabus or some specialized Raptor course.

 

[Swanee]

As of December-ish, F-22 selection was out of IFF. As I understand it, the guys came out of T-38 with a chance at an F-22 slot - there would be a given number for each IFF class - and then competed within their class for them. I think most of the guys who didn't get it went Vipers, though their may have been a few going to A-10s, Eagles, or Strike Eagles. And I'm pretty sure those who did pick up F-22 slots went to the F-16 FTU first, but I don't know if they went through the entire B-Course syllabus or some specialized Raptor course.

I've pretty much heard the same from both my brother and the old man (both AF types). They go to Luke AFB to learn how to fly the Viper then go to Tyndall for the Raptor.

 

[insanebikerboy]

I get a chuckle out of this! It seems that we have some of the same issues across community FRS CAT I programs.

Looking back, I'm actually satisfied with the intro we had at HS-10. It felt like it was much more about the systems and flying than tactics, we basically scratched the surface of the SWTP level 2 stuff in a ground school class and that was it. I couldn't imagine having gun patterns/CAS/MAS/etc, etc thrown in. Like EODDave said, 2 out of 10 could rock it, the rest would just be hanging out near the stab.

 

[tusk91]

Fixed.

No.

There is the EP-X program, but it's more like Boeing preparing for the future needs of the Navy.

That is to bad because the latest I have read is that the EP-X program has been canceled for now.
Guess, the guys flying EP-3's will be flying the Aries for a while to come??

 

[LazersGoPEWPEW]

That is to bad because the latest I have read is that the EP-X program has been canceled for now.
Guess, the guys flying EP-3's will be flying the Aries for a while to come??

As far as I know that information is correct although last time I was at the P-8 trailer I asked about the EP-X and they said they still had plans for it even if the Navy didn't. They'll need a replacement eventually. But until they have one they're going to fly the same thing.

 

[HeyJoe]

That is to bad because the latest I have read is that the EP-X program has been canceled for now.
Guess, the guys flying EP-3's will be flying the Aries for a while to come??

As far as I know that information is correct although last time I was at the P-8 trailer I asked about the EP-X and they said they still had plans for it even if the Navy didn't. They'll need a replacement eventually. But until they have one they're going to fly the same thing.

It makes almost too much sense for Navy to have a common platform MPRA and EP-X, but there are other somewhat complicated factors that led up to where where are today. First off, push BAMS and whether it takes on any of the MPRA or EP-X. That is a separate (and somewhat related; only to determine total numnber of platfroms not a unmanned vs manned because you need and could use both) issue, but a Red Herring as far as the choice of manned platform for EP-X goes.

The Navy had a plan to replace the EP-3 type/model/seris and signinficant cash invested. They joined hands with the Army to develop ACS (Airborne Common Sensor) and Army wanted lead so Navy took the back seat. As background, remember the Army's track record on leading programs has a somewhat checkered if not dismal track record of huge development dollars poured into programs that failed miserably, took huge amounts of cash and delays to get ready for service introduction or were shot finally in head by OSD when it was apparent Army couldn't make it happen:
Before last decade, the Army had its share of acquisition shame along with other services so they weren't standouts in that regard (however the DIVAD program is still the poster child of prgrams that were ill conceived and executed):

Sergeant York DIVAD (prime = Ford Aerospace)
Bradley IFV (prime = United Defense)

After 9/11 with Army getting literally whatever they wanted so they could win in OEF and then in OIF led to troubles with acquisition program already in development and in less than one decade, they arguably were responsible for more acquisition case studies and "how not to do it" than all the other services combined:

2002 Crusader (Prime = General Dynamics) Requirements creep gone wild and cost control out of sight = $25M a copy versus leass than $5M for state-of-the-art German system (and they know how to build tanks and self-propelled howitzers)
2004 Comanche (Prime: Being-Sikorsky) 22 YEARS, $6.9B invested and 6 major program restructures and still not a product to field... YGTBSM!
2006 Airborne Common Sensor (ACS) (Prime: LMCO) Army + LMCO buffoonery as a affordable platform is selected, but after considerable investment = Oops, if we put all the gear in the Embraer RJ145, it can't take off (hwere were the Systems Engineers in Proposal process on either side?)
Future Combat System (FCS) (Prime = Boeing) Coast Guard and Army became entranced by "turn key" total systems solutions to equip an entire service = billions spent and little to show for it while contractors eagerly send bills
2006 JCM* (Joint Common Missile) (Prime : LMCO)



*Arguably, JCM was too early in development to characterize it as a failure. SECDEF needed cuts and and prime targets are programs just getting started (that may reemerge later) and failing programs; IMO, JCM is the former and will likely ultimately enter service as JAGM if managed properly)

 

[Smirnoff]

What pipeline will the p-8 be in? Have they started picking up pilots out of primary?

I will have orders to API next summer. I was wondering if the P-8's are operational in the fleet, and if they are picking up pilots out of the training pipeline yet, or are they just transitioning P-3 pilots. Also, are they considered maritime or jets?

 

[gtg941f]

I worked at Gulfstream while competing for ACS. The entire time Grumman and Gulfstream were touting the merits of a GV platform (51k service ceiling, 14hrs time overhead with a 6k range), while LMCO and Embraer somehow convinced the Army that their vastly inferior platform was what they needed because it was cheaper. The mention of cost came up and Gulfstream was an afterthought. Apparently the decision came down to costs and the LMCO systems being preferred to those of Grumman. Immediately after the decision, there was rumor of them wanting the LMCO package in the Gulfstream, but obviously that never transpired. Meanwhile that piece of junk down in Brazil could never get airborne and never came close to fulfilling the original requirement. Just another story of the wrong people being in charge of acquisitions.

 

[KCOTT]

I'm supposed to select around late September/early October. Still somewhat undecided between helos/P-3's with helos I guess being in the slight lead but nothing for sure at this point. I ask about the P-8 all the time, and have gotten a variety of answers. Not really sure what to believe, some say if I select P-3's I'll eventually fly the P-8 and some say they're not sure, but think I should. I don't know, I was all about helos but if there is an assurance that I will fly the P-8 one day I might change my mind otherwise. Well, gotta finish Primary first and foremost.

 

[HeyJoe]

I'm supposed to select around late September/early October. Still somewhat undecided between helos/P-3's with helos I guess being in the slight lead but nothing for sure at this point. I ask about the P-8 all the time, and have gotten a variety of answers. Not really sure what to believe, some say if I select P-3's I'll eventually fly the P-8 and some say they're not sure, but think I should. I don't know, I was all about helos but if there is an assurance that I will fly the P-8 one day I might change my mind otherwise. Well, gotta finish Primary first and foremost.

Since P-3C "Fleet" is being replaced by the P-8 then you stand a good chance of eventually flying it. Nobody can forecast your exact path if you go Maritime hence the variety of answers. You also need to take into account that the Budget for DoD in general and Navy specifically is approved annually for only one year of Total Obligation Authority (TOA) so whatever the Navy planned for the following years (usually 5-6 total depending if we are in an odd or even year) is just a wish list. Sometimes, aircraft come into service quickly and sometimes they get stretched.

You could end up in a squadron that transitions before your first tour is up or be a direct input or be in successfully the last squadrons to transition. Nobody can forecast that or guarantee anything.

Follow your own advice, concentrate on tasks at hand!

 

[MIDNJAC]

Yeah kcott don't overthink what could/should happen down the road. In about a year you are going to be at the rag flying something and that something probably ain't gonna be a P-8. So just try to think about what will be exciting for you NOW. My old man flew p-2s at a similar transition period in the early 60s. Life took him elsewhere and he found a happy and long life in the reserves after his isr expired. Long story short, he was a reserve vp CO before he made the transition to the papa tres, nearly 15 years later. Moral of the story is that You just never knoe

 

[SWACQ]

1)From what I've seen, the F-35 will be in service in 2012 (unless its pushed back to 2014 like some sources are saying). Assuming that it is in 2012, what year would SNA's start getting selected for f-35 training? Or would they transition currently winged jet guys whose a/c is getting replaced by the F-35?

When I was at 125 in Lemoore in 2000, 121 (Rhino FRS) had a few jets and was taking CAT I's, although the majority of the students were Tomcat transitions. The IPs at 121 started going to the squadron something like 8 or 10 months before they got their first jet. It was a slow process working the transition pilots and bringing in CAT I's.

With the JSF, there are guys down at Eglin already building the FRS.

One thing to note is that you used the term "in service." What exactly does that mean? The JSF is scheduled to be IOC in 2012. IOC is Initial Operational Capability. That means a unit is ready to deploy for combat. For the first squadron to IOC in 2012, that means they need to not only have aircraft, but also have all the pilots and maintainers trained on that aircraft to a standard that is combat ready. Right now the projection is what, 10 or 12 aircraft to be delivered next year, probably all to the FRS? As you get pilots and maintainers trained and more aircraft delivered you can stand up a fleet squadron. Figure what, 4-6 months training time for transition pilots, 6-8 months for CAT I's, and at least 6 months of work-ups, and you are looking at a good year before you get an IOC squadron.

My bet would be IOC sometime in 2013 more likely 2014 with CAT I's starting through the FRS sometime in 2012. Maybe the first squadron will deploy a "detachment," like on a MEU, with 4-6 aircraft and a limited number of pilots, just to be able to claim IOC closer to the target date.

 

[HeyJoe]

When I was at 125 in Lemoore in 2000, 121 (Rhino FRS) had a few jets and was taking CAT I's, although the majority of the students were Tomcat transitions. The IPs at 121 started going to the squadron something like 8 or 10 months before they got their first jet. It was a slow process working the transition pilots and bringing in CAT I's.

With the JSF, there are guys down at Eglin already building the FRS.

One thing to note is that you used the term "in service." What exactly does that mean? The JSF is scheduled to be IOC in 2012. IOC is Initial Operational Capability. That means a unit is ready to deploy for combat. For the first squadron to IOC in 2012, that means they need to not only have aircraft, but also have all the pilots and maintainers trained on that aircraft to a standard that is combat ready. Right now the projection is what, 10 or 12 aircraft to be delivered next year, probably all to the FRS? As you get pilots and maintainers trained and more aircraft delivered you can stand up a fleet squadron. Figure what, 4-6 months training time for transition pilots, 6-8 months for CAT I's, and at least 6 months of work-ups, and you are looking at a good year before you get an IOC squadron.

My bet would be IOC sometime in 2013 more likely 2014 with CAT I's starting through the FRS sometime in 2012. Maybe the first squadron will deploy a "detachment," like on a MEU, with 4-6 aircraft and a limited number of pilots, just to be able to claim IOC closer to the target date.

For the record, that would be VFA-122 (not 121). welcome aboard all the same!