Europe under extreme duress

[Randy Daytona]

Volkswagon announces layoffs of 50,000. Wonder what impact that will have on German politics?

Volkswagen to cut 50,000 jobs as profits drop

Europe's largest carmaker said post-tax profits had dropped to their lowest level since 2016.

www.bbc.com

Looks like 50,000 was a low number:

VW Workers Boo CEO Blume, Report Claims, As Possible Plant Closures and Up to 100,000 Job Cuts Loom​

VW Workers Boo CEO Blume, Report Claims, As Possible Plant Closures and Up to 100,000 Job Cuts Loom

Oliver Blume urged workers to back deeper cuts, according to the report, but VW labor leaders say trust in management is damaged.

www.roadandtrack.com

 

[Griz882]

Looks like 50,000 was a low number:

VW Workers Boo CEO Blume, Report Claims, As Possible Plant Closures and Up to 100,000 Job Cuts Loom​

VW Workers Boo CEO Blume, Report Claims, As Possible Plant Closures and Up to 100,000 Job Cuts Loom

Oliver Blume urged workers to back deeper cuts, according to the report, but VW labor leaders say trust in management is damaged.

www.roadandtrack.com

Well, this does align with the China Shock 2.0 article you posted.

 

[ChuckMK23]

Given the CIA Director Ratcliffe meeting in Moscow, my feed is full of conjecture that Putin is planning a test of NATO resolve in an Article 5 scenario where RUS attacks either UK or an Eastern European NATO member in hopes that the US NCA withholds a response.

What say you all on this scenario ?

 

[Griz882]

Given the CIA Director Ratcliffe meeting in Moscow, my feed is full of conjecture that Putin is planning a test of NATO resolve in an Article 5 scenario where RUS attacks either UK or an Eastern European NATO member in hopes that the US NCA withholds a response.

What say you all on this scenario ?

Kind of far…far out. Russia is in dire straits right now, economically a mess, militarily weakened (to an extreme level) and not ready for a larger war. This is approaching fantasy land.

 

[ChuckMK23]

Kind of far…far out. Russia is in dire straits right now, economically a mess, militarily weakened (to an extreme level) and not ready for a larger war. This is approaching fantasy land.

The voice of reason! Thank you @Griz882

 

[123412131]

Given the CIA Director Ratcliffe meeting in Moscow, my feed is full of conjecture that Putin is planning a test of NATO resolve in an Article 5 scenario where RUS attacks either UK or an Eastern European NATO member in hopes that the US NCA withholds a response.

What say you all on this scenario ?

Russia's economy is increasingly propped up by defense spending, and they're preparing for a larger, longer war with Ukraine. That hurts an administration already embroiled in other problems that promised peace in the region. Ratcliffe was there trying to revive the peace process. I wouldn't read any of this as Russia preparing for a conventional war with the West.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/27/us/politics/cia-director-russia-ukraine.html?smid=url-share

 

[Peekskill1941]

Given the CIA Director Ratcliffe meeting in Moscow, my feed is full of conjecture that Putin is planning a test of NATO resolve in an Article 5 scenario where RUS attacks either UK or an Eastern European NATO member in hopes that the US NCA withholds a response.

What say you all on this scenario ?

It lines up pretty closely with the plot of this book (it’s a quick read) If Russia Wins - the author is someone in the know.

https://a.co/d/08kU0xuG

 

[hscs]

Russia's economy is increasingly propped up by defense spending, and they're preparing for a larger, longer war with Ukraine. That hurts an administration already embroiled in other problems that promised peace in the region. Ratcliffe was there trying to revive the peace process. I wouldn't read any of this as Russia preparing for a conventional war with the West.

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/08/27/us/politics/cia-director-russia-ukraine.html?smid=url-share

Which also depends upon the price of oil, not to mention their non-legal ways of obtaining $.

 

[Peekskill1941]

Kind of far…far out. Russia is in dire straits right now, economically a mess, militarily weakened (to an extreme level) and not ready for a larger war. This is approaching fantasy land.

The voice of reason! Thank you @Griz882

@Griz882 - I don't think it's that much of a fantasy. Think of the win win Putin gets (this is the argument that Ukraine and the Baltic States are making now to suggest it's realistic, among their other intelligence):

1. Putin wants to win in Ukraine. He is rapidly losing out on people willing to join and having to increase wages and benefits ($$) for recruiting new Soldiers and paying out dead ones' families (their version of SGLI).

2. So he wants a conscription where he can stop raising wages, but knows politically this is unsavory for him.

3. Do a small attack on a small town in the Baltics. If NATO responds he can say "SEE! I told you all along NATO was going to do this! Our guys were slaughtered! We have to respond!" In his mind, political winds swell around support against fighting. Conscription ensues, and more people are sent to the meat grinder in Ukraine.

4. OR - if NATO doesn't respond - particularly because the US doesn't commit forces ("oh, it's just a small Lithuanian/Estonian/Latvian town") or assist outside of intel, but also western European governments that don't feel threatened, think France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, UK, etc. also don't commit to responding - then NATO truly looks like a paper tiger and the value of article 5 is at the very least heavily reduced if the alliance continues to exist in anything but paper.

 

[taxi1]

My fear is the saying, Desperate times require desperate measures.

 

[Flash]

Kind of far…far out. Russia is in dire straits right now, economically a mess, militarily weakened (to an extreme level) and not ready for a larger war. This is approaching fantasy land.

@Griz882 - I don't think it's that much of a fantasy. Think of the win win Putin gets (this is the argument that Ukraine and the Baltic States are making now to suggest it's realistic, among their other intelligence):

My fear is the saying, Desperate times require desperate measures.

A cornered animal is among the most dangerous, even if wounded and dying.

 

[BigRed389]

A cornered animal is among the most dangerous, even if wounded and dying.

Especially one with a shit ton of nukes.

 

[Griz882]

In response to the above posts, I’m not discounting the idea, I’m saying it is way on the edge of likely possibilities. @Peekskill1941 your scenarios are focused primarily on old Sovietology type thinking where the Russian bear does as it wishes and the world trembles combined with the notion that NATO is but the U.S. with a strong assist from the U.K. and Germany and maybe some ardent Frenchies.

My basic counter to your “Baltic Gambit” are Poland and Finland. If Russia were to jab Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania just a little those two wildly anti-Russian nations would jump into the fray with or without NATO because they know the next target. Poland’s ground forces are larger than Russia’s existing non-committed reserves and her air force would make a sizable dent in Russia’s remaining air power. If Poland is in, then most likely NATO, or at least Germany, will enter as well. Moreover, if Poland is in, Finland won’t wait to get gobbled up.

I imagine this is where @taxi1 and @BigRed389 have a powerful follow up, and it should not be dismissed. My take is that while Putin might be willing to go tactically nuclear, his Rocket Army commanders are not. They are well aware of their weaknesses and know that even a proportional response will be devastating to them. The wild card here is knowing how much launch control Putin actually has.

My last point, Putin might want to draft every Russian man from 8 to 80, but he can’t turn them into effective soldiers fast enough. This isn’t 1945, he doesn’t have 20 million serfs to feed to the meat grinder. A far less worn, but far larger, Russian army turned on the czars and there is no reason to think an exhausted Russia won’t turn on Putin. I absolutely agree Putin is in a bad spot and that a caged (crazed) animal can lash out, but I don’t see the Russian people as being compliant enough to agree to being fed into another front they can’t pierce. Put simply, he can probably continue to fight the Ukrainian stalemate for a few more years, but I don’t see him surviving an attack on yet another sovereign nation.

 

[ChuckMK23]

I know you guys love to throw hate at Ward's channel, but this interview at Hook26 is just too good to not watch.

Ward interviews a contract F-16 instructor pilot, former Tomcat guy, and gives a complete rundown of current tactics and air order of battle along with a day in the life view of F-16 operations by Ukraine. Plenty of deep dive on tactics.This is fascinating stuff and a must watch in my humble opinion.

Even @Brett327 will be impressed with the content here.

"Send them every expired weapon we have"

 

[BigRed389]

In response to the above posts, I’m not discounting the idea, I’m saying it is way on the edge of likely possibilities. @Peekskill1941 your scenarios are focused primarily on old Sovietology type thinking where the Russian bear does as it wishes and the world trembles combined with the notion that NATO is but the U.S. with a strong assist from the U.K. and Germany and maybe some ardent Frenchies.

My basic counter to your “Baltic Gambit” are Poland and Finland. If Russia were to jab Estonia, Latvia, or Lithuania just a little those two wildly anti-Russian nations would jump into the fray with or without NATO because they know the next target. Poland’s ground forces are larger than Russia’s existing non-committed reserves and her air force would make a sizable dent in Russia’s remaining air power. If Poland is in, then most likely NATO, or at least Germany, will enter as well. Moreover, if Poland is in, Finland won’t wait to get gobbled up.

I imagine this is where @taxi1 and @BigRed389 have a powerful follow up, and it should not be dismissed. My take is that while Putin might be willing to go tactically nuclear, his Rocket Army commanders are not. They are well aware of their weaknesses and know that even a proportional response will be devastating to them. The wild card here is knowing how much launch control Putin actually has.

My last point, Putin might want to draft every Russian man from 8 to 80, but he can’t turn them into effective soldiers fast enough. This isn’t 1945, he doesn’t have 20 million serfs to feed to the meat grinder. A far less worn, but far larger, Russian army turned on the czars and there is no reason to think an exhausted Russia won’t turn on Putin. I absolutely agree Putin is in a bad spot and that a caged (crazed) animal can lash out, but I don’t see the Russian people as being compliant enough to agree to being fed into another front they can’t pierce. Put simply, he can probably continue to fight the Ukrainian stalemate for a few more years, but I don’t see him surviving an attack on yet another sovereign nation.

While I brought it up, I’m actually not in the camp that thinks it’s a credible threat that Putin will use nukes any time soon. The reality is it’d be an embarrassing admission that they’re getting their asses kicked by “little Russia” or “NATO minus the US” so badly they had to resort to nukes.

I also am fairly sure there is some rot in the nuclear forces as well. And he (or senior military leadership) probably really doesn’t want to show their hand on any real nuke force readiness. It’d be especially bad if they actually were ready but Europe based defenses neutralized everything they employed.

The biggest worry is what happens if the country starts falling apart, especially post Putin. He at least appears to try to live a fairly healthy lifestyle, but he’s getting on in years too.

Oh. And in related news, following up on the rumor SecArmy was on his way out, he has apparently now resigned.