Europe under extreme duress

[Griz882]

While I brought it up, I’m actually not in the camp that thinks it’s a credible threat that Putin will use nukes any time soon. The reality is it’d be an embarrassing admission that they’re getting their asses kicked by “little Russia” or “NATO minus the US” so badly they had to resort to nukes.

I also am fairly sure there is some rot in the nuclear forces as well. And he (or senior military leadership) probably really doesn’t want to show their hand on any real nuke force readiness. It’d be especially bad if they actually were ready but Europe based defenses neutralized everything they employed.

The biggest worry is what happens if the country starts falling apart, especially post Putin. He at least appears to try to live a fairly healthy lifestyle, but he’s getting on in years too.

Oh. And in related news, following up on the rumor SecArmy was on his way out, he has apparently now resigned.

Good points…and yes the SecArmy resigned and I’m hearing from friends still at the Five Sided War Hut on the Potomac that his goodbye note had some significant Pete hate in it.

 

[hscs]

….especially post Putin. He at least appears to try to live a fairly healthy lifestyle, but he’s getting on in years.

But he can score hat tricks x 3 and still has his real teeth….

 

[123412131]

Good points…and yes the SecArmy resigned and I’m hearing from friends still at the Five Sided War Hut on the Potomac that his goodbye note had some significant Pete hate in it.

Dan Driscoll’s Parting Shot

The Army secretary told Trump about problems in the Army and his friction with Hegseth, then resigned.

www.theatlantic.com

Definetely interesting, especially if you believe the reporting that SecWar is paranoid about being replaced and worried about Driscoll's influence, which seemingly gave him the clout to personally air his grievances about Hegseth to the President prior to his resignation.

 

[Randy Daytona]

@Griz882 - I don't think it's that much of a fantasy. Think of the win win Putin gets (this is the argument that Ukraine and the Baltic States are making now to suggest it's realistic, among their other intelligence):

1. Putin wants to win in Ukraine. He is rapidly losing out on people willing to join and having to increase wages and benefits ($$) for recruiting new Soldiers and paying out dead ones' families (their version of SGLI).

2. So he wants a conscription where he can stop raising wages, but knows politically this is unsavory for him.

3. Do a small attack on a small town in the Baltics. If NATO responds he can say "SEE! I told you all along NATO was going to do this! Our guys were slaughtered! We have to respond!" In his mind, political winds swell around support against fighting. Conscription ensues, and more people are sent to the meat grinder in Ukraine.

4. OR - if NATO doesn't respond - particularly because the US doesn't commit forces ("oh, it's just a small Lithuanian/Estonian/Latvian town") or assist outside of intel, but also western European governments that don't feel threatened, think France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, UK, etc. also don't commit to responding - then NATO truly looks like a paper tiger and the value of article 5 is at the very least heavily reduced if the alliance continues to exist in anything but paper.

Thought this opinion polling would be relevant.

Would You Fight For Your Country? The Most and Least Willing Among NATO Allies - Foreign Policy Research Institute

This piece is part of The Ties That Bind, a project on NATO’s role in the global security landscape.

www.fpri.org