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Europe under extreme duress

Randy Daytona said:
Volkswagon announces layoffs of 50,000. Wonder what impact that will have on German politics?

www.bbc.com

Volkswagen to cut 50,000 jobs as profits drop

Europe's largest carmaker said post-tax profits had dropped to their lowest level since 2016.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
Click to expand...
Looks like 50,000 was a low number:

VW Workers Boo CEO Blume, Report Claims, As Possible Plant Closures and Up to 100,000 Job Cuts Loom​


www.roadandtrack.com

VW Workers Boo CEO Blume, Report Claims, As Possible Plant Closures and Up to 100,000 Job Cuts Loom

Oliver Blume urged workers to back deeper cuts, according to the report, but VW labor leaders say trust in management is damaged.
www.roadandtrack.com www.roadandtrack.com
 
Given the CIA Director Ratcliffe meeting in Moscow, my feed is full of conjecture that Putin is planning a test of NATO resolve in an Article 5 scenario where RUS attacks either UK or an Eastern European NATO member in hopes that the US NCA withholds a response.

What say you all on this scenario ?
 
ChuckMK23 said:
Given the CIA Director Ratcliffe meeting in Moscow, my feed is full of conjecture that Putin is planning a test of NATO resolve in an Article 5 scenario where RUS attacks either UK or an Eastern European NATO member in hopes that the US NCA withholds a response.

What say you all on this scenario ?
Click to expand...
Kind of far…far out. Russia is in dire straits right now, economically a mess, militarily weakened (to an extreme level) and not ready for a larger war. This is approaching fantasy land.
 
ChuckMK23 said:
Given the CIA Director Ratcliffe meeting in Moscow, my feed is full of conjecture that Putin is planning a test of NATO resolve in an Article 5 scenario where RUS attacks either UK or an Eastern European NATO member in hopes that the US NCA withholds a response.

What say you all on this scenario ?
Click to expand...
Russia's economy is increasingly propped up by defense spending, and they're preparing for a larger, longer war with Ukraine. That hurts an administration already embroiled in other problems that promised peace in the region. Ratcliffe was there trying to revive the peace process. I wouldn't read any of this as Russia preparing for a conventional war with the West.

 
ChuckMK23 said:
Given the CIA Director Ratcliffe meeting in Moscow, my feed is full of conjecture that Putin is planning a test of NATO resolve in an Article 5 scenario where RUS attacks either UK or an Eastern European NATO member in hopes that the US NCA withholds a response.

What say you all on this scenario ?
Click to expand...
It lines up pretty closely with the plot of this book (it’s a quick read) If Russia Wins - the author is someone in the know.

 
123412131 said:
Russia's economy is increasingly propped up by defense spending, and they're preparing for a larger, longer war with Ukraine. That hurts an administration already embroiled in other problems that promised peace in the region. Ratcliffe was there trying to revive the peace process. I wouldn't read any of this as Russia preparing for a conventional war with the West.

Click to expand...
Which also depends upon the price of oil, not to mention their non-legal ways of obtaining $.
 
Griz882 said:
Kind of far…far out. Russia is in dire straits right now, economically a mess, militarily weakened (to an extreme level) and not ready for a larger war. This is approaching fantasy land.
Click to expand...

ChuckMK23 said:
The voice of reason! Thank you @Griz882
Click to expand...
@Griz882 - I don't think it's that much of a fantasy. Think of the win win Putin gets (this is the argument that Ukraine and the Baltic States are making now to suggest it's realistic, among their other intelligence):

1. Putin wants to win in Ukraine. He is rapidly losing out on people willing to join and having to increase wages and benefits ($$) for recruiting new Soldiers and paying out dead ones' families (their version of SGLI).

2. So he wants a conscription where he can stop raising wages, but knows politically this is unsavory for him.

3. Do a small attack on a small town in the Baltics. If NATO responds he can say "SEE! I told you all along NATO was going to do this! Our guys were slaughtered! We have to respond!" In his mind, political winds swell around support against fighting. Conscription ensues, and more people are sent to the meat grinder in Ukraine.

4. OR - if NATO doesn't respond - particularly because the US doesn't commit forces ("oh, it's just a small Lithuanian/Estonian/Latvian town") or assist outside of intel, but also western European governments that don't feel threatened, think France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, UK, etc. also don't commit to responding - then NATO truly looks like a paper tiger and the value of article 5 is at the very least heavily reduced if the alliance continues to exist in anything but paper.
 
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