This Wikipedia entry is an eye-opening read just on account of its length: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Poland
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Europe under extreme duress
- Thread starter Randy Daytona
- Start date
If Putin is successful in Ukraine, to whatever degree, the Baltics are next.
The Baltics know that what is going on in Ukraine is existential for them.
I don't follow your reasoning here. Assuming the outcome of Ukraine is the Russians gain some territory east of the Dnieper and some or all of Donbas (the presumptive best outcome for Russia), at great cost to their own army (and having shown the world their ass), what's the impetus for Putin to then go and attack a NATO member state?
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And trigger a NATO response? He must either not believe the recent pledges of NATO to defend the alliance, or he has already decided to go nuclear to take them. Again, someplace like Moldova or Finland sound like safer bets. With news reports that Finland and Sweden could join NATO within months, to avoid an Artcle 5 trigger Putin would have to act quickly on Finland. Hard to see that happening given the commitment in Ukraine and subsequent decrease in capability.
If you watch the Baltic countries, including Poland, they are supporting Ukraine in ways far greater than the rest of NATO, especially in proportion to their size. Why do you think that is? What do they know?
Putin has been clear on what he wants. He also probably understands that the Ukraine battle is in fact a Russia-NATO battle in many ways now, with Ukraine as a surrogate.
The impetus could be because Putin is emboldened by any outcome other than a public political defeat and either a total military defeat or a inability to conduct meaningful offensive operations.
Perhaps because some in the West still think Putin will stop or be content with Donbas. I agree with the camp that says Putin will not stop.
Short of a complete inability to conduct offensive military operations, Putin will not stop. Putin may buy time. Putin does not care what any Western nation cares and will use any action to stoke anti-western sentiment at home to consolidate and maintain control in Russian.
Poland and the Baltic states are supporting Ukraine in order to keep the Russians pushed back. I think they rightly assess Putin won't survive a military defeat in Ukraine, so they're doing what they can to assure his destruction, ideally without starting WWIII.
But fighting a proxy war (and I agree with that part of your premise) is a VERY different prospect than taking NATO head-on. You fight a proxy war to fight the war you wouldn't fight directly. So, in a world of escalations, that would be a doozy, with a strong chance of nuclear involvement. Based on what I've seen in the public domain, Russia hasn't increased it's conscription rate, so it doesn't yet appear Putin is undergoing a major military buildup for a follow-on campaign. If anything, his military is weaker than before, and now the world knows it. So the loss-of-face and wounded beast arguments, I can understand. But even if Putin gains territory in Ukraine out of this, I don't believe he'd risk his own existence on the Baltics or Poland.
My prediction right now is that this will drag on for some time, at great cost to Ukraine, and resource distribution (mainly food and fuel) in Europe and Asia will suffer. Russia will eventually gain territory in Eastern Ukraine, but at a high price, and be done militarily for a while as they lick their wounds and try to salvage what's left of their economy. Putin will remain in power until he dies, and resume his not-so-shadowy game of discrediting the West and supplying our enemies at every opportunity.
All based on what (I think) is known today. If Putin, or the West, get even more irrational, all my bets are off.
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There is NO DOUBT that if NATO went all in to defend the Baltics (I am certain they would do so for Poland) Russia would suffer a devastating defeat. Even if Putin took it nuclear, the west would prevail. The NATO v Russia outcome is as certain as you can get in warfare. So this all depends on whether Putin is picking up what NATO is putting down. The West's unified response to the Ukraine invasion is part of communicating, by demonstration, what awaits Putin if he takes on NATO.
Pretty much every really big war involved one side misjudging the other's intent. I think the Baltic countries have a clearer understanding of Putin's ultimate goal.
I think a victory of any real sort in Ukraine will inspire Putin to move forward, knowing that NATO could have prevented him from winning in Ukraine. If Ukraine does not essentially win, it will be because NATO held back support they could have provided.
Message for China too.
I concur.
I think a victory of any real sort in Ukraine will inspire Putin to move forward, knowing that NATO could have prevented him from winning in Ukraine. If Ukraine does not essentially win, it will be because NATO held back support they could have provided.
Message for China too.
The aid package announced today includes 11 factory new Mi-17 helos that were procured for the former Afghan National AF. These airframes are already in eastern Europe. It's a pleasure to see these aircraft repurposed far better than the ANAF could have ever used them.
That "All politics is local?"
Interesting….they revived the M113 for Iraq giving them to units like airborne and light infantry that don’t usually have heavy troop transport. I have always liked “the box”…we had them gunned up like ACAVS in Vietnam.
THIS, people...THIS.
Fuck "prevail". Nuclear combat with the Russians needs to be avoided AT ANY COST YOU CAN IMAGINE, up to and including that Ukraine goes back to the "new" SSR.
Just IMHO, of course...
Unmanned coastal defense vessels…on one-way trips I bet.
I think your signature quote is appropriate here.
“On the Plains of Hesitation, bleach the bones of countless millions who, at the Dawn of Victory, sat down to wait, and waiting died.”
Now is the time to stick it to Russia.