Yeah, thats the optimistic view. I just don't know and I'd imagine all the 50lb brains don't know either. Our understanding of the economic system seems to be largely based on historical analysis and we've never done this before. Brave New world...
-
Please take a moment and update your account profile. If you have an updated account profile with basic information on why you are on Air Warriors it will help other people respond to your posts. How do you update your profile you ask?
Go here:
Edit Account Details and Profile
COVID-19
- Thread starter Treetop Flyer
- Start date
Disclaimer: not an economist
I mean, things were doing very well, but think about how many Americans are dipping into their savings right now, if they even had any to start with. The stimulus check is supposed to last for 10 weeks according to Secretary Mnuchin. (So that assumes a budget of $120 a week for rent and food? Bananas.). States are running out of money because they’ve tapped their rainy day funds and they won’t be able to collect payroll tax from all of the furloughed and laid-off employees. Not to mention social security and Medicare/Medicaid taxes. Trillions of dollars deepening the deficit. Hiring freezes. Whole industries are being slicked right now: travel, hospitality, restaurant to name a few. I mean yeah they’ll come back eventually, but if a restaurant can’t pay their rent that’s it. So those workers won’t have a job to go back to.
I don’t think most Americans can afford to miss too many pay days before things start getting very dire.
Most of us on this probably have (hopefully) some money saved up and will still have jobs or pretty good employment prospects. Government jobs are a great place to be at right now. But we’re the exception. So yeah I think we could bounce back in a strong V, but I think it’s going to be U shaped or more L shaped or like the Nike swoosh. Not much discretionary spending, lots of unemployment being collected for a while, not a lot of unnecessary travel, etc.
Each day we keep things shut down it’s only going to get worse.
abc7ny.com
I mean, things were doing very well, but think about how many Americans are dipping into their savings right now, if they even had any to start with. The stimulus check is supposed to last for 10 weeks according to Secretary Mnuchin. (So that assumes a budget of $120 a week for rent and food? Bananas.). States are running out of money because they’ve tapped their rainy day funds and they won’t be able to collect payroll tax from all of the furloughed and laid-off employees. Not to mention social security and Medicare/Medicaid taxes. Trillions of dollars deepening the deficit. Hiring freezes. Whole industries are being slicked right now: travel, hospitality, restaurant to name a few. I mean yeah they’ll come back eventually, but if a restaurant can’t pay their rent that’s it. So those workers won’t have a job to go back to.
I don’t think most Americans can afford to miss too many pay days before things start getting very dire.
Most of us on this probably have (hopefully) some money saved up and will still have jobs or pretty good employment prospects. Government jobs are a great place to be at right now. But we’re the exception. So yeah I think we could bounce back in a strong V, but I think it’s going to be U shaped or more L shaped or like the Nike swoosh. Not much discretionary spending, lots of unemployment being collected for a while, not a lot of unnecessary travel, etc.
Each day we keep things shut down it’s only going to get worse.
Coronavirus NYC Updates for May 2020
Eyewitness News coverage of the coronavirus pandemic in New York City in May and early June 2020.
If he is continuing to listen to his chief medical advisor and she recommends it, I don't see an issue. Like I've said several times in this thread, I'll listen and heed the experts.
As for the 'panic', I think that is overblowing it a bit.
Not to mention the state unemployment pots will run dry soon. Unemployment benefits were not designed to support a 30% unemployment rate which is where we’re heading if we don’t go back to work.
What hypothetical unemployment rate do we need to hit before you think that there wasn’t an element of panic and hysteria in people demanding that we shut down our economy.
Or if not an unemployment rate, what? What would move the needle enough for you to say “holy shit, we really overreacted here.” From my point of view, there is no longer a logical reason for us to willingly plunge ourselves into a Depression when we have data-proven ways to successfully combat this virus and mitigate the risk.
The only corollary I can think of for something like this is WWI. it was so outside of everyone's understanding and for awhile economists thought they'd have to end the war because they were going to run out of money. Turns out they got creative and figured out a way to pay for plenty of killing. Hopefully there's some sort of modern equivalent to get us out of this.
Yeah I don’t know if this is registering with a lot of folks. I mean, I have my own opinion about WHY that is (it involves people being too busy trying to place blame on a certain US President), but we all know what opinions are like.
I'm not sure it is an either-or decision, if we open things up too soon it could become a lose-lose. For those who have advocated keeping things open I point to the cautionary example playing out in South Dakota, where the state and businesses have kept things open more than most other states. One result? The Smithfield Foods plant in Sioux Fall is now the largest virus hotspot in the entire country.
Unfortunately it shows that even when you keep things open for business you can still end up getting shut down, only with lots more folks getting the virus. And the plant is now shut down. Pretty sure most would call that a lose-lose.
Yeah you know how the winners got a lot of their money back? Making the Central Powers pay for it. Which invoked rampant poverty and led more or less directly to World War Two.
You should check out this book:
Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World https://www.amazon.com/dp/0143116800/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_i_cFlMEbZRGMV72
It’s one of the biggest hot spots because of the employees’ working conditions and living conditions. Again, white collar people think this is no big deal because “we can just work from home”. These are immigrants. They can’t afford not to work. There’s no teleworking at plants and factories. And when they come home there’s no sleeping in the basement or the spare bedroom to isolate themselves.
We can keep non-essential factories and other similar jobs shut down, sure. But that is going to come at a heavy heavy cost. And is going to increase the burden on already nearly depleted system.
We need to find a middle ground ASAP.
For meat plant workers, virus makes a hard job perilous
SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (AP) — Kulule Amosa’s husband earns $17.70 an hour at a South Dakota pork plant doing a job so physically demanding it can only be performed in 30-minute increments.
That's because the winners were jerks and basically guaranteed a second world war. They didn't have to pay it back that way.
Either way, thanks for the book recommendation. I'll check it out.
It sucks that the Americans that worked there lost their jobs. But it’s Chinese owned. There’s that.
And they got even less of their money back by writing the debt in the loser's (German) currency instead of any of the winners'. Oops.
Doesn’t the area under the yellow curve (the integral) represent job creation since 2008? Seems like another misleading graph but you’ve got a pretty good track record and I’m sure you vet your sources and aren’t a sycophant or anything...
ABMD
Bullets don't fly without Supply
Side note unrelated to discussion, but I wonder what his job is that he can only do it in 30 minute increments. I worked as a butcher on a kill floor of a local butcher shop and we worked all day hoisting several hundred pound beef sides and quarters. Way heavier than pork.It’s one of the biggest hot spots because of the employees’ working conditions and living conditions. Again, white collar people think this is no big deal because “we can just work from home”. These are immigrants. They can’t afford not to work. There’s no teleworking at plants and factories. And when they come home there’s no sleeping in the basement or the spare bedroom to isolate themselves.
We can keep non-essential factories and other similar jobs shut down, sure. But that is going to come at a heavy heavy cost. And is going to increase the burden on already nearly depleted system.
We need to find a middle ground ASAP.
For meat plant workers, virus makes a hard job perilous
SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (AP) — Kulule Amosa’s husband earns $17.70 an hour at a South Dakota pork plant doing a job so physically demanding it can only be performed in 30-minute increments.apnews.com