Carrier-borne mid-range ASW revival?

[wink]

The lack of dedicated effective middle zone ASW does not equal a lack of all CSG submarine defense. It means all other ASW assets more suited for another part of the battle space and applicable tactics will be over taxed and lack the effectiveness of a dedicated asset. I am sure the same staffers you refer to will tell you they would love to have the capabilites of a Viking type middle zone ASW asset, and that is not even considering the other capabilites that it would likely bring, improved over the Viking's ESM, ASUW, ISAR, and littoral strike. Some say pipe dream, unrealistic. I say priorities. And that puts it back on Admirals.

 

[Brett327]

The lack of dedicated effective middle zone ASW does not equal a lack of all CSG submarine defense. It means all other ASW assets more suited for another part of the battle space and applicable tactics will be over taxed and lack the effectiveness of a dedicated asset. I am sure the same staffers you refer to will tell you they would love to have the capabilites of a Viking type middle zone ASW asset, and that is not even considering the other capabilites that it would likely bring, improved over the Viking's ESM, ASUW, ISAR, and littoral strike. Some say pipe dream, unrealistic. I say priorities. And that puts it back on Admirals.

Let’s be frank, your conception of ASW is 30 years stale. By this point, you don’t even know what you don’t know. Right?

 

[Griz882]

Gonna be a crowded lot—if a Pacific war ever starts in earnest, short-legged Sikorskis will be standouts, and not in a good way.

Better question: where are they gonna park all the former P-8 NFOs when old guys start doing their job out of trailers in Jax?

My guess, next to the pilots in all those trailers!

 

[IKE]

Gonna be a crowded lot—if a Pacific war ever starts in earnest, short-legged Sikorskis will be standouts, and not in a good way.

So many people think of a particular mission and write off rotary. Fair enough for that scenario. But the CSG and CRUDES are gonna need VERTREP, ASW, and maybe a real-time, accurate surface picture painted beyond own-ship's RF horizon as they transit -- none of which needs to (or should) be done at "long" ranges.

Is anyone actually budgeting for buoys, dipping sonar, or cargo hooks/pendants, etc. on a tilt-rotor bird?

Callsign notwithstanding, I'm sure there's a lot I don't know, but I've yet to meet a ship CO who didn't want a Romeo's radar operating 24/7 or a Sierra bringing a fresh shipment of LaCroix and tobacco products periodically.

 

[Gatordev]

I watched CBS This Morning and saw the segment on AI and military aviation. The guy from Sikorsky put it sadly, but probably accurately, that “you don’t need a pilot, just an operator.

That's all well and good as long as we can maintain our digital infrastructure after first contact. I'm not convinced that's guaranteed.

 

[Griz882]

That's all well and good as long as we can maintain our digital infrastructure after first contact. I'm not convinced that's guaranteed.

Don’t know enough about it so I bow to those with greater knowledge…but I do know we are doing things today that many said would take twenty years or more to accomplish just five years ago. Technology is advancing at a hurried pace and I think we are much closer to the “operator” mode than realized.

As for the digital infrastructure stuff…if that fails wouldn’t large portions of our fleet capability rendered useless today?

 

[SteveHolt!!!]

Callsign notwithstanding, I'm sure there's a lot I don't know, but I've yet to meet a ship CO who didn't want a Romeo's radar operating 24/7 or a Sierra sinking the enemy fleet with unguided rockets and HELLFIRE.

Fixed that for you.

 

[zippy]

. I guarantee, they will miss the War Hoover when the big one happens.

^This 1000%.

MPRA crews aren’t that good anymore. While some of the new technology in P8 helps, there’s gonna be a steep learning curve and some costly missteps once China decides to make its move and subs start flooding into the pacific out to the second Island chain.

Shipboard ASW in the CSG is pathetic. It’s going to be like clubbing baby seals for any PRC sub skipper that gets within XX miles of the HVU.

 

[Brett327]

MPRA crews aren’t that good anymore.

How do you know this?

 

[Articuno]

as we can maintain our digital infrastructure after first contact. I'm not convinced that's guaranteed.

^ This is the main reason I posed the question. EW will have such a major roll in a peer conflict that we can kiss most technologic advancements goodbye. Even if non-nuclear EM weapons aren’t advanced enough to maintain wide area denial, our adversaries talk a lot about using nukes to ignore the possibility of a HANE strike.

Even if that isn’t a reality, satellites will be the first non-kinetic AND kinetic targets. What happens to the pacific when that occurs and you lose OTH targeting capabilities for those trailers in the desert?

Analog redundancy is critical, you’re less likely to fry out anything that isn’t silicon printed. And airframes that can carry out missions with limited OTH support are required. Those submerged submarines won’t be affected by a HANE or other NNEMP, nor do they rely on satellites as much as surface units aside from LACM strikes.

 

[cfam]

^ This is the main reason I posed the question. EW will have such a major roll in a peer conflict that we can kiss most technologic advancements goodbye. Even if non-nuclear EM weapons aren’t advanced enough to maintain wide area denial, our adversaries talk a lot about using nukes to ignore the possibility of a HANE strike.

Even if that isn’t a reality, satellites will be the first non-kinetic AND kinetic targets. What happens to the pacific when that occurs and you lose OTH targeting capabilities for those trailers in the desert?

Analog redundancy is critical, you’re less likely to fry out anything that isn’t silicon printed. And airframes that can carry out missions with limited OTH support are required. Those submerged submarines won’t be affected by a HANE or other NNEMP, nor do they rely on satellites as much as surface units aside from LACM strikes.

I think you’re just hypothesizing, but don’t expect an educated answer on those questions in this forum.

 

[Griz882]

I think you’re just hypothesizing, but don’t expect an educated answer on those questions in this forum.

You mean my theory that after the first month of a war with China we’ll be leaning on @ChuckMK23 and the CAP for air power?

 

[zippy]

How do you know this?

Watching them fuck away ASW prosecutions first hand.

They haven’t been good at ASW after decades of it taking a back seat to other real world priorities. A few years of renewed focus and P8s isn’t going to magically make them great. There’s a full generation of AW operators who struggle because they had very little exposure to the basics for years. ASW rodeos were regularly won by U teams using RO/RO ASW stations because their operators had a solid understanding of the fundamentals due to previous experience.

Example:

Actual conversation in the tube going back to take a piss after hours of no contact against a CTF 72 target (nuclear powered) submarine:
Looks at screen… sees almost textbook CZ on the screen…

“Hey is that CZ?”
SS1- “no sir I don’t know what that is…”
“It looks like CZ to me” (explains why- points to screen)
“No sir, it’s doesn’t look like CZ to me”
-Goes to TACCO/MC
“Hey I think he’s got CZ contact but he’s not recognizing it. We should probably do a CZ investigation pattern.”
-TACCO goes back and looks at the screen.
“Nah it’s not CZ It’s probably…” (insert suspect explanation)
Go and take a piss and come back… CZ still on the screen. Talk about it on ICS again specifically why i think it looks like CZ. MC and SS1 disagree and decide to continue to sit on our pattern as is waiting for direct contact.
-Finishes on station period with no ASW contact.

Tube gets called to the carpet later in the week after tapes reviewed and shows that we had XX minutes of ASW contact and they didn’t recognize it.

 

[Brett327]

Watching them fuck away ASW prosecutions first hand.

They haven’t been good at ASW after decades of it taking a back seat to other real world priorities. A few years of renewed focus and P8s isn’t going to magically make them great. There’s a full generation of AW operators who struggle because they had very little exposure to the basics for years. ASW rodeos were regularly won by U teams using RO/RO ASW stations because their operators had a solid understanding of the fundamentals due to previous experience.

Example:

Actual conversation in the tube going back to take a piss after hours of no contact against a CTF 72 target (nuclear powered) submarine:
Looks at screen… sees almost textbook CZ on the screen…

“Hey is that CZ?”
SS1- “no sir I don’t know what that is…”
“It looks like CZ to me” (explains why- points to screen)
“No sir, it’s doesn’t look like CZ to me”
-Goes to TACCO/MC
“Hey I think he’s got CZ contact but he’s not recognizing it. We should probably do a CZ investigation pattern.”
-TACCO goes back and looks at the screen.
“Nah it’s not CZ It’s probably…” (insert suspect explanation)
Go and take a piss and come back… CZ still on the screen. Talk about it on ICS again specifically why i think it looks like CZ. MC and SS1 disagree and decide to continue to sit on our pattern as is waiting for direct contact.
-Finishes on station period with no ASW contact.

Tube gets called to the carpet later in the week after tapes reviewed and shows that we had XX minutes of ASW contact and they didn’t recognize it.

Anecdote acknowledged. While I know we're a far cry from the proficiency we had during the CW, I think you're casting an awfully wide net with your declarative statement. Curious if you've had a recent experience observing a P-8 crew at work.

 

[Swanee]

Okay. I'll bite to add my own anecdote. We did an exercise a couple months ago out in PACOM. The issue of MQ-9 being able to at least detect and track submarines came up and was a small focus.

The short answer is yes we can if they're on the surface. The long answer is that even with a couple of the whiz bang pods they want to put on the thing we're better served to other missions. ASW requires more coordination between the sensor operator and the pilot than what is available right now.

Also interesting is that getting network allocations to the folks who could actually use the pod data from the airplane is a nightmare. The PAROC was absolutely not helpful.

But we were REALLY good at finding and tracking surface contacts from a long way out, to the point where the white cell kept turning us off.

Lots of really good stuff in the future for the MQ-25 if the Navy chooses to go that way.