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Carrier-borne mid-range ASW revival?

Not sure if this is a thread elsewhere but I couldn’t find one. I went down the rabbit hole of researching as to why the S-3 Viking was retired. As an NFO applicant reading through ancient threads here, the mission just seemed like the cream of the crop for a too-tall-for-strike-fighters guy like myself. As a submarine qualified enlisted, I’ve also not been oblivious to the Russian submarine renaissance that has occurred at a staggering pace.

Reading through the few speculative articles posted on various blogs, proceedings, and news sources, it seems the consensus in many schools of thought is that the S-3 or an S-3 like platform was retired too early.

ASW modules have been tossed around for use on strike fighters, SV-22s, and the MQ-25. Pretty much every author has discredited the notion based on the fact that the proposed modules would not be a capable enough option, nor would the associated communities (save for maybe the non-existent SV-22) be able to have sufficient enough cross training to support effective deployment.

The Stingray is meant to replace the recovery airborne refueling filled by the other big deck platforms, and the program (to my knowledge) has not even been deployed to a carrier as of yet. That would require leaps and bounds of training efforts to accomplish that as an effective role.

Strike Fighters outfitted with lightweight torpedos are about as effective as shooting a bear with a .22 in my opinion so that option just seems preposterous.

The SV-22 is unlikely to happen in the near term. The navy has hardly even begun the transition of the CMV-22 role of COD replacement platforms.

Rotary wing of course plays a role in short range ASW, and P-8s in the long range. This still leaves a very important defensive layer left completely vulnerable.

With Russia pumping out the Severodvinsk class submarines, and progressing with supersonic ASCMs, this is a rather poor time to have that layer unchecked.

I know that the idea for resuscitating the stored S-3s was tossed around in the mid 2010s. But, there is not much information to be garnered on what the Navy is actually planning to fill this role. An already existing, with doctrine, platform seems like an easy stopgap solution.

Either way, a dedicated replacement platform seems to be the best option. Unmanned platforms can only accomplish so much and are entirely dependent on non-degraded C2. I don’t see a potential peer war not resulting in wide scale EW/heavy blackout warfare. It just makes sense to consolidate the detection, hunting, and killing to a single platform with human operators to make on the fly (pun intended) decisions. Namely one that has enough analog redundancy to function in a degraded environment. AI, though making significant progress, will likely never be reliable enough in an ASW scenario to make unsupervised kill-chain solutions. Although ISR could easily be still functional in a totally denied C2 environment, nothing lethal should ever be trusted to autonomous AI.

I’d like to know what you aviators think of the subject!
 

Notanaviator

Well-Known Member
Contributor
With Russia pumping out the Severodvinsk class submarines, and progressing with supersonic ASCMs, this is a rather poor time to have that layer unchecked.
I don’t know that Russia is ‘pumping out’ anything new with any real volume. I think you may be referring to the Yasen class which may be sort of an SSGN analog… and I think they’ve built a handful of examples in thirty years. I wouldn’t disagree though that the sub community I guess in relative terms would be Russian strong suit.
AI, though making significant progress, will likely never be reliable enough in an ASW scenario to make unsupervised kill-chain solutions.
I would not underestimate the promise of AI and what it could reliably do in the near future, just as a blanket statement.
 

Swanee

Cereal Killer
pilot
None
Contributor
Not sure if this is a thread elsewhere but I couldn’t find one. I went down the rabbit hole of researching as to why the S-3 Viking was retired. As an NFO applicant reading through ancient threads here, the mission just seemed like the cream of the crop for a too-tall-for-strike-fighters guy like myself. As a submarine qualified enlisted, I’ve also not been oblivious to the Russian submarine renaissance that has occurred at a staggering pace.

Reading through the few speculative articles posted on various blogs, proceedings, and news sources, it seems the consensus in many schools of thought is that the S-3 or an S-3 like platform was retired too early.

ASW modules have been tossed around for use on strike fighters, SV-22s, and the MQ-25. Pretty much every author has discredited the notion based on the fact that the proposed modules would not be a capable enough option, nor would the associated communities (save for maybe the non-existent SV-22) be able to have sufficient enough cross training to support effective deployment.

The Stingray is meant to replace the recovery airborne refueling filled by the other big deck platforms, and the program (to my knowledge) has not even been deployed to a carrier as of yet. That would require leaps and bounds of training efforts to accomplish that as an effective role.

Strike Fighters outfitted with lightweight torpedos are about as effective as shooting a bear with a .22 in my opinion so that option just seems preposterous.

The SV-22 is unlikely to happen in the near term. The navy has hardly even begun the transition of the CMV-22 role of COD replacement platforms.

Rotary wing of course plays a role in short range ASW, and P-8s in the long range. This still leaves a very important defensive layer left completely vulnerable.

With Russia pumping out the Severodvinsk class submarines, and progressing with supersonic ASCMs, this is a rather poor time to have that layer unchecked.

I know that the idea for resuscitating the stored S-3s was tossed around in the mid 2010s. But, there is not much information to be garnered on what the Navy is actually planning to fill this role. An already existing, with doctrine, platform seems like an easy stopgap solution.

Either way, a dedicated replacement platform seems to be the best option. Unmanned platforms can only accomplish so much and are entirely dependent on non-degraded C2. I don’t see a potential peer war not resulting in wide scale EW/heavy blackout warfare. It just makes sense to consolidate the detection, hunting, and killing to a single platform with human operators to make on the fly (pun intended) decisions. Namely one that has enough analog redundancy to function in a degraded environment. AI, though making significant progress, will likely never be reliable enough in an ASW scenario to make unsupervised kill-chain solutions. Although ISR could easily be still functional in a totally denied C2 environment, nothing lethal should ever be trusted to autonomous AI.

I’d like to know what you aviators think of the subject!
 
… and I think they’ve built a handful of examples in thirty years.
1 in launched per year the last five years. Pretty substantial improvement in production since the fall of the USSR.

I would not underestimate the promise of AI and what it could reliably do in the near future, just as a blanket statement.

Yeah, not trying to discount AI at all. A lot will be decided on who has developed the best AI. I just highly doubt any decision maker will allow for autonomous lethal decisions carried out by AI. There’s a whole slew of movies as to why that’s a bad idea, lmao. @Swanee has the SKYNET logo as his profile pic so I’m sure he will try to convince you otherwise, though.
 

Swanee

Cereal Killer
pilot
None
Contributor
1 in launched per year the last five years. Pretty substantial improvement in production since the fall of the USSR.



Yeah, not trying to discount AI at all. A lot will be decided on who has developed the best AI. I just highly doubt any decision maker will allow for autonomous lethal decisions carried out by AI. There’s a whole slew of movies as to why that’s a bad idea, lmao. @Swanee has the SKYNET logo as his profile pic so I’m sure he will try to convince you otherwise, though.


Stop. You have no idea what you're talking about.
 

IKE

Nerd Whirler
pilot
A major portion of the future vertical lift analysis has been increased range/speed. Not saying we'll actually get that with the Seahawk's successor, but it's been analyzed.
 

robav8r

Well-Known Member
None
Contributor
Maybe focus more on getting PROREC, going to OCS, getting to flight school and your fleet tour than trying to develop a thesis argument for a naval war college JPME assignment 10 years down the road.
From the OP: "I’d like to know what you aviators think of the subject!"

Dude - are you get enough fiber in your diet? The OP asked a pretty good question, no?
 

Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
@Articuno, here is a place to start your research. It is being considered but I believe the Navy is a long way between a “flash” we haven’t even seen yet and the “bang” that means the fleet has a suitable asset.

 

robav8r

Well-Known Member
None
Contributor
@Articuno, here is a place to start your research. It is being considered but I believe the Navy is a long way between a “flash” we haven’t even seen yet and the “bang” that means the fleet has a suitable asset.

ASW is not in the USMC ROC/POE. Should it be? Perhaps, but this is a mission focus that the USN has been neglecting for a long, long time (i'm talking airborne ASW, not surface or subsurface). The P-8 is implementing some amazing new capabilities, but the CSG remains vulnerable to several SSN threats around the globe outside of long range MPR coverage not to mention the threat from advanced ASCM's. The PRC/RUS subsurface threat remains credible, especially in light of the possibility of a China-Taiwan fight. I think it's a healthy discussion to have . . . .
 

FormerRecruitingGuru

Making Recruiting Great Again
From the OP: "I’d like to know what you aviators think of the subject!"

Dude - are you get enough fiber in your diet? The OP asked a pretty good question, no?

Never said it was a dumb question, simply a kind recommendation that OP should focus on the gators closest to him on the boat…
 

Griz882

Frightening children with the Griz-O-Copter!
pilot
Contributor
ASW is not in the USMC ROC/POE. Should it be? Perhaps, but this is a mission focus that the USN has been neglecting for a long, long time (i'm talking airborne ASW, not surface or subsurface). The P-8 is implementing some amazing new capabilities, but the CSG remains vulnerable to several SSN threats around the globe outside of long range MPR coverage not to mention the threat from advanced ASCM's. The PRC/RUS subsurface threat remains credible, especially in light of the possibility of a China-Taiwan fight. I think it's a healthy discussion to have . . . .
I know next to nothing about ASW tactics. I do wonder if a UAV could fill the gap between close in and long range ASW - but the funny part is that if we were to ask for a clean sheet design for a mid-range airborne ASW asset we’d pretty much get…well…an S-3.
 
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