** I'm assuming in this hypothetical that the "not future Skipper material" guy from the first part of the question doesn't apply here - just so we're clear.
Look at it from another perspective, if you have two guys that are more or less equal, but you can only give one of them the #EP ticket, then one of them essentially opts out, then that's screwing the guy that could have had the #1EP. It's all about managing a finite amount of opportunity for command. That's what that #1EP ticket is for. Giving it to someone who doesn't want command is wasting it.
My philosophy has always been maximum transparency when it comes to FITREPs. All of my DHs and JOs knew exactly where they stood. If, in this hypothetical, someone had feigned interest in command, only to switch things up after the HW FITREP, then I would probably consider that a violation of the trust I've worked hard to establish. Of course, there's always room for people to change their minds, and that's completely fine, but being deceptive or underhanded about it suggests that person is not an honest broker. In that case, why would I support/endorse that individual for a special program when they haven't been honest with me?