Anyone else see a roadtrip coming?

[hornsfan]

Latest word from K-rock is that the jets are probably not leaving. Sims are on for tomorrow.

 

[a2b2c3]

Unless something's changed in the past 30 minutes or so, all the jets in kingsville are still waiting around. Buddies are either flying FCLP's or cross country to Laughlin. So who know's down here.

 

[picklesuit]

Son of a...! I just found out I've got the 1500 sim AND the balls to noon watch tonight. I must have pissed off the ops gods.

 

[MIDNJAC]

yeah, I heard that the Commodore delayed the fly-off until 1100-ish. So far the definitive answer that was supposed to come then, has yet to be released. I'm guessing that those of us not "Hurry"-ing out in a TW-4 aircraft are probably going to be riding this one out.

 

[bolterking]

Just the fact that the wx is making me have to remain in S. Tx just one minute longer makes me want to punch a baby.

you've seen too many AFN commercials LOL

 

[LivinMyDream]

Dolly was just named a Cat I hurricane as of 4:00 CST, on 22 JUL 08.

 

[MIDNJAC]

Dolly was just named a Cat I hurricane as of 4:00 CST, on 22 JUL 08.

Just saw that....still waiting on official word down here in Corpus

 

[MasterBates]

I know there probably is a method to the madness, but in 8 years of being in the Navy, and being stationed in South Texas, Pensacola, or Jacksonville for 7 of them I have seen every Hurrevac go one of two ways:

1- They pull the trigger WAY early, and we evac for nothing.
2- They wait until the abso-freaking-loute last minute, and by the time a decision is made, it's too late to get on the road before the Wx rolls in.

Unless I get a call in the next 2 hours, the PUMA is staying put, and I am going drinking.

 

[MIDNJAC]

Yeah, honestly if I weren't going to lose my spot in the garage tonight when I go to my scheduled sim, I wouldn't care either way.

 

[PropAddict]

So, if they say "evac" and seal off the Island, but I stay. . .what kind of bad things could happen (other than the obvious risk to life and limb)?

The surf was up today and looks like it's only getting better, although it was a bit windy, too.

 

[picklesuit]

Wow, the flight line is eerie with no planes on it. Get to watch this thing roll ashore from the SDO shack, should be fun! I can't wait to see the student trailers bouncing across 13L

 

[MIDNJAC]

So, if they say "evac" and seal off the Island, but I stay. . .what kind of bad things could happen (other than the obvious risk to life and limb)?

The surf was up today and looks like it's only getting better, although it was a bit windy, too.

The most recent observation (2200 UTC) from National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
500 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2008

DOLLY IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED BY THE NWS RADAR FROM
BROWNSVILLE...NOAA BUOYS..SATELLITE AND VERY IMPORTANTLY...BY AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT. THE RADAR IS MEASURING 75
KNOTS AT ABOUT 20 THOUSAND FEET AND SHOW NUMEROUS RAINBANDS ALREADY
APPROACHING THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.
DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT DOLLY IS A HURRICANE AND WIND DATA
JUST RECEIVED FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAVE CONFIRMED IT.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS 65 KNOTS. WITH THE PREVAILING LOW
SHEAR...DOLLY IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST A LITTLE BIT STRONGER.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS.
THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A
SMALL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF DOLLY
SHOULD BE NEAR THE US/MEXICO BORDER WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. DOLLY IS LARGE CYCLONE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA TONIGHT. AFTER LANDFALL...DOLLY
SHOULD TURN MORE TO WEST AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE. MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
BRINGING THE CORE OF DOLLY INLAND IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE
RE-EMPHASIZED THAT...DUE TO THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES...ONE MUST
NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT LANDFALL POINT IN THIS FORECAST.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION AT LANDFALL...DOLLY COULD DUMP VERY HEAVY
RAINS IN THE AREA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 22/2100Z 24.6N 95.3W 65 KT
12HR VT 23/0600Z 25.3N 96.4W 70 KT
24HR VT 23/1800Z 26.0N 97.5W 80 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 24/0600Z 26.0N 99.0W 40 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 24/1800Z 26.0N 100.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

And a little bit more descriptive of the forecast effects, from the 2100 UTC National Hurricane Center Obervation:

ZCZC MIATCPAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DOLLY ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042008
400 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...DOLLY BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE 2008 HURRICANE
SEASON...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
BROWNSVILLE TO CORPUS CHRISTI...AND FOR THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
MEXICO FROM RIO SAN FERNANDO NORTHWARD TO THE BORDER BETWEEN MEXICO
AND THE UNITED STATES. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI TO SAN LUIS PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LA
PESCA TO SOUTH OF RIO SAN FERNANDO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DOLLY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.3 WEST OR ABOUT 165 MILES...
265 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

DOLLY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF DOLLY NEAR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
OR EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DOLLY IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE
LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160
MILES...260 KM. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO REACH
THE COASTS OF NORTHEAST MEXICO AND SOUTHERN TEXAS LATER TONIGHT.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS
986 MB...29.12 INCHES.

DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...OVER MUCH OF SOUTH
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTS.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...24.6 N...95.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

I kind of dorked out on this, but the NHC website is actually kind of interesting. Incidentally "Forecaster Avila" is the guy who put out the final advisories prior to Katrina making landfall on LA (which apparently was pretty controversial at the time due to it's verbage/candor). Okay, back to studying more important things since it looks like tonight is not off

 

[MasterBates]

I just got word NOT to evac. Because I have a sim at 1400 tomorrow.

(For those that don't know, if it so much as thunders within 15 miles, the sims go down here)

 

[a2b2c3]

I just got word NOT to evac. Because I have a sim at 1400 tomorrow.

(For those that don't know, if it so much as thunders within 15 miles, the sims go down here)

Should we go find some really loud speakers?

 

[MIDNJAC]

I just got word NOT to evac. Because I have a sim at 1400 tomorrow.

(For those that don't know, if it so much as thunders within 15 miles, the sims go down here)

w/ my luck it will incomplete my sim ride, and then I will have left the safety of my garage for nothing :icon_rage