COVID-19

[SlickAg]

Weekends. Students being students. I'd drive home on Friday past off-campus houses, and the beer pong in the driveway would be going. I'd have probably done the same back in the day.

Where I work a significant portion have to come in, due to sensitive or classified work. We've had a mask mandate and social distancing requirements from mid-March, and required randomized testing through the Fall, along with mandatory testing for people who had to travel for work. We lock out anyone who needs to quarantine. We've adjusted the HVAC in the buildings to increase turnover and have policies on windows to increase outflow. We've had a lot of people come up positive this Fall. Contact tracing shows we've not had a single case of at-work transmission. What we do works. Beats me about California.

All students were requested to take a test prior to departing (free) and were offered free dorm space for quarantining if they came up positive (quite a few did). This included students that lived in town, not just on campus proper.

You're right, it was/is a hot topic of discussion in town.

It's fascinating to me that y'all have enacted such strict and demanding NPIs at work yet you still had positive cases. Are your colleagues who have tested positive questioned about the sort of precautions they take at home?

Of course, a college student has a greater risk of dying driving to get tested than he does of dying from covid. So does that mean that the University's campaign to stop them from gathering and hanging out hasn't worked? Can the University police not drive by and stop them from playing beer pong? I'd figure college students would be so much more with it during the midst of a deadly pandemic.

Since you seemed to agree with @Flash 's comment about mask wearing -

It boggles the mind

perhaps you'd like to take a stab at an explanation of why medical professionals have seen patients without wearing surgical masks for years, even in the middle of respiratory virus season, and yet only now do we seem to acknowledge them as such a critical piece of PPE?

 

[SlickAg]

maybe another factor could be that those on medicaid could have more health issues due to age, lifestyle, etc.. than those with commercial insurance, it would be interesting to break down those numbers.

I would also love to see those numbers broken down. However, I don't think that will be done as it would go against the grain of the narrative; cases and hospitalizations and deaths are only the result of three things: people not wearing masks, people not adhering to lockdown restrictions, and people not believing the science.

Oh, sorry. Four things. Thanksgiving is the fourth one. But remember, ONLY Thanksgiving dinner on Thanksgiving Day. Meals the day after don't count. Dr. Birx can confirm that.

 

[taxi1]

College students face virtually no risk from the virus unless they have major complicating health problems. So sending them home accomplishes what exactly? It’s another feel-good “at least we did something” action, and it’s inexcusable given the mountain of data we have.

I agree we should have just kept them here, but I'm not in charge of the U. A lot of the students with apartments have come back anyway rather than stay at home. Their leases are paid for.

 

[taxi1]

It's fascinating to me that y'all have enacted such strict and demanding NPIs at work yet you still had positive cases. Are your colleagues who have tested positive questioned about the sort of precautions they take at home?

Here's what I have found fascinating. We've had known (after the fact) contagious workers at work near other workers, and yet have had zero transmission at work.

They are asked about precautions taken both at work and off work, as a part of contact tracing by the health folks.

 

[SlickAg]

Here's what I have found fascinating. We've had known (after the fact) contagious workers at work near other workers, and yet have had zero transmission at work.

They are asked about precautions taken both at work and off work, as a part of contact tracing by the health folks.

Read that UF study. Obviously it’s not the final word, but the results are right in line with what you’re seeing. Asymptomatic spread is nearly non-existent compared to symptomatic spread.

Which is what Dr. Fauci said way back when this all started, asymptomatic spread has never been a large driver for a virus (paraphrase). Now of course is it possible? Yes, of course. Is it likely? No. I feel like we’re coming full circle now that some of the hysteria has died down.

 

[SlickAg]

Looks like the WHO isn’t super bullish on the vaccine...guess we’ll just have to wear masks and socially distance for the rest of time.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1343620091695538179

 

[SlickAg]

Also, if any of you can still see light at the end of the tunnel, check out the CDC website from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Absolutely fascinating. How did that pandemic end? They stopped tracking cases because they said it was now just the regular old flu.

So, perhaps, eventually, once we’ve tired of the lockdowns and school closures and economic strain, the government will just do what they’ve always done.

“2009 H1N1 Individual Case Counts
Why did CDC stop reporting confirmed and probable 2009 H1N1 flu cases?
Individual case counts were kept early during the 2009 H1N1 outbreak when the 2009 H1N1 virus first emerged. As the outbreak expanded and became more widespread, individual case counts become increasingly impractical and not representative of the true extent of the outbreak. This isbecause only a small proportion of persons with respiratory illness are actually tested and confirmed for influenza (including 2009 H1N1) so the true benefit of keeping track of these numbers is questionable. In addition, the extensive spread of 2009 H1N1 flu within the United States made it extremely resource-intensive for states to count individual cases. On July 24, 2009, CDC discontinued reporting of individual cases of 2009 H1N1, but continued to track hospitalizations and deaths.”

“How accurate a representation are these numbers?
Updated Nov 06

Laboratory-confirmed data is thought to be an underestimation of the true number of cases because most people will not be tested for influenza. However, influenza and pneumonia syndrome hospitalizations and deaths may be an overestimate of actual number of flu-related hospitalizations and deaths because that diagnostic category includes other illnesses. Influenza and pneumonia syndromic reports are less specific to influenza, but are helpful in following disease trends.”

CDC H1N1 Flu | Questions and Answers Monitoring Influenza Activity, Including 2009 H1N1

www.cdc.gov

 

[taxi1]

Asymptomatic spread is nearly non-existent compared to symptomatic spread.

From a more recent article...asymptomatic transmission probability is lower but still high.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32651-9/fulltext#back-bib1

Overall, 89 (2%) of 3790 close community contacts developed COVID-19 while in quarantine. Of these, 50 (56%) of 89 contacts were quarantined because of an asymptomatic index case, whereas 39 (44%) contacts were quarantined because of a symptomatic case.43 (48%) contacts were quarantined because of a seronegative index case, whereas 46 (52%) were quarantined because of a seropositive index case.

Negative binomial regression revealed that when adjusted for age, gender, and serology of index case, the incidence of COVID-19 among close contacts of a symptomatic index case was 3·85 times higher than for close contacts of an asymptomatic index case”

This article talks about how much we don’t know about symptomatic versus asymptomatic versus presymptomatic. Published a week ago.

Asymptomatic transmission of covid-19

What we know, and what we don’t The UK’s £100bn “Operation Moonshot” to roll out mass testing for covid-19 to cities and universities around the country raises two key questions. How infectious are people who test positive but have no symptoms? And, what is their contribution to transmission of...

www.bmj.com

 

[Gatordev]

Also, if any of you can still see light at the end of the tunnel, check out the CDC website from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Absolutely fascinating. How did that pandemic end? They stopped tracking cases because they said it was now just the regular old flu.

So, perhaps, eventually, once we’ve tired of the lockdowns and school closures and economic strain, the government will just do what they’ve always done.

To me, it seems like this is where the COVID vaccine comes into play. It doesn't solve the short-term issue, but it's the long game. I've been a bit startled to find reasonable, intelligent people in the health care industry make comments about the vaccine not being helpful when it seems (to me) they're not understanding the long game of just getting everyone (whom it may apply to) past the severe symptoms and it just becoming, at worst, something that feels like the common cold.

Moving on...and disclaimer, this isn't directed at any one post here...

I've become very frustrated with how the ICU beds situation has continued to be reported. I don't discount COVID-19, as I'm sure it would absolutely kill my mom, and does seem to hit some with no known co-morbidities harder than others. But this whole "the ICUs are at capacity!" message has been frustrating because the details aren't being defined in reporting. The CDC's own tracking is showing that, yes, ICU use specifically for COVID has increased in December for several states, including CA, but the actual numbers of ICU COVID patients is only about 30% (on the high side for states like CA). Averaging a typical ICU bed count of ~20 (which is probably generous), that's not that many patients/unit hospital, even if they're setting up COVID patients in the SICU or CVICU, which are typically different animals.

Personally, I think masks are a decent compromise given dirty people being dirty while balancing them doing economically helpful things, and I don't discount COVID as being "just another flu," but it doesn't help those with legitimate concerns when what's being reported doesn't put it in perspective.

 

[ABMD]

Can we define "masks" when we say "masks work" . I don't see anyone wearing the N95s, which I agree work when they are fitted (they should be fitted to the wearer). I usually see cloth, neck gaiters/buffs and cheapo surgical masks.

 

[SlickAg]

From a more recent article...asymptomatic transmission probability is lower but still high.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32651-9/fulltext#back-bib1

This article talks about how much we don’t know about symptomatic versus asymptomatic versus presymptomatic. Published a week ago.

Asymptomatic transmission of covid-19

What we know, and what we don’t The UK’s £100bn “Operation Moonshot” to roll out mass testing for covid-19 to cities and universities around the country raises two key questions. How infectious are people who test positive but have no symptoms? And, what is their contribution to transmission of...

www.bmj.com

For the first article, I’d like to see it published somewhere other than The Lancet.

For the second, sounds like they agree that asymptomatic testing isn’t nearly as important as it’s made out to be.

“The UK’s testing strategy needs to be reset in line with the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies’ recommendation that “Prioritising rapid testing of symptomatic people is likely to have a greater impact on identifying positive cases and reducing transmission than frequent testing of asymptomatic people in an outbreak area.”21”

 

[SlickAg]

Can we define "masks" when we say "masks work" . I don't see anyone wearing the N95s, which I agree work when they are fitted (they should be fitted to the wearer). I usually see cloth, neck gaiters/buffs and cheapo surgical masks.

 

[Gatordev]

Can we define "masks" when we say "masks work" .

Personally, I define them as procedure/surgery masks, because that's what I have free access to between my work and my wife's work.

 

[SlickAg]

To me, it seems like this is where the COVID vaccine comes into play. It doesn't solve the short-term issue, but it's the long game. I've been a bit startled to find reasonable, intelligent people in the health care industry make comments about the vaccine not being helpful when it seems (to me) they're not understanding the long game of just getting everyone (whom it may apply to) past the severe symptoms and it just becoming, at worst, something that feels like the common cold.

Moving on...and disclaimer, this isn't directed at any one post here...

I've become very frustrated with how the ICU beds situation has continued to be reported. I don't discount COVID-19, as I'm sure it would absolutely kill my mom, and does seem to hit some with no known co-morbidities harder than others. But this whole "the ICUs are at capacity!" message has been frustrating because the details aren't being defined in reporting. The CDC's own tracking is showing that, yes, ICU use specifically for COVID has increased in December for several states, including CA, but the actual numbers of ICU COVID patients is only about 30% (on the high side for states like CA). Averaging a typical ICU bed count of ~20 (which is probably generous), that's not that many patients/unit hospital, even if they're setting up COVID patients in the SICU or CVICU, which are typically different animals.

Personally, I think masks are a decent compromise given dirty people being dirty while balancing them doing economically helpful things, and I don't discount COVID as being "just another flu," but it doesn't help those with legitimate concerns when what's being reported doesn't put it in perspective.

I’m just warning you, but if you keep questioning the conventional wisdom like this, the mods will start trying to silence you. Also, you can’t exclude California from any sort of conversation. @Flash said so.

On a more serious note, I don’t disagree about the masks, but @ABMD brings up a great point. I just saw your post about surgical masks, but please remember that the majority of people aren’t wearing a medical-grade mask. In fact, I’d still love to have an answer about when they are routinely worn by medical professionals in a non-surgical or non-sterile setting. They may work during short encounters, but if they worked on the whole, why is California in its current state? It just doesn’t make sense. It sounds good on paper, but why is Florida mostly open, without masks mandates, and doing so much better, relatively speaking?

As for whether or not the mask/shutdown duo works, I’ll leave everyone with a quote from Dr. Fauci circa January 2021:

 

[Spekkio]

I’ll stay up nights worrying about the damage done to America’s reputation as a clean, hygienic society. I guess all of Western Europe took a big rep hit too.

Ultimately no one else's reputation is relevant when talking about our ability to conduct business with our international partners. I'd wager we're at least an FDA licensed vaccine and a mandatory vaccination for all DOD personnel away from being able to step foot into other countries on liberty again. Either that or complete burnout of the disease globally, whichever happens first.

Ultimately, it comes down to expectation management. When you expect to go to port calls and see the world after joining the Navy and then you never do, it's disappointing. The same can be said for today's modern Sailors who expect they can send an email probably daily, but they don't expect their ration of whisky or grog, so they don't have heartburn on not getting that. But again, manage their expectations... go two weeks past 45 days without a port call in sight and no mention of a beer day, they will be grumbling.

Ah the old expectations management. I think we're a good bit away before the institutional memory fades regarding what it was like to have liberty in foreign ports. Until that does, sailors are going to have some kind of hope that the restrictions will be lifted at any moment.